{"id":"89fb32c5-1ac9-4d08-91f3-ec85d01a4b9d","arxiv_id":"2606.26998","paper_version":1,"verdict":"UNVERDICTED","confidence":"LOW","novelty_score":3.0,"correctness_risk":"unknown","formal_verification":"none","parameter_count":0,"one_line_summary":"The paper provides observing strategies, detection forecasts, and predictions for using SKA and VLBI to study radio emission from tidal disruption events around supermassive black holes.","lead":"The paper outlines how the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) combined with VLBI can observe radio emission from tidal disruption events to study black hole accretion and jets. This approach could enable measurements of proper motions and morphologies that distinguish different types of outflows.","discovery_kind":"new_application","skeptic_critique":{"model":"grok-4.3","headline":"Forecast of ~5 proper motion detections/yr hinges on untested rates of late-time radio flares and specific jet/wind models","rationale":"The reader's weakest_assumption directly identifies the same load-bearing inputs (flare commonality, alert rates, and jet/outflow models) that control the quantitative forecast. Because the paper is a forward-looking proposal whose central claim is the numerical yield, this assumption set is the single point whose validity most affects whether the stated program will deliver the advertised science return. No other internal inconsistency or missing derivation is apparent from the provided material.","tokens_in":1842,"tokens_out":332,"duration_ms":19520,"concrete_test":"Recompute the detection forecast using only the observed radio flare fraction and luminosity function from the current ~10 radio TDEs in the literature (instead of the model grid), holding all other SKA parameters fixed; if the predicted proper-motion detections fall below ~1 per year the central claim is sensitive to the modeling assumptions.","verdict_should_be":"UNCHANGED","load_bearing_attack":"The headline numerical prediction requires that late-time radio flares are common enough in the TDE population and that LSST/Einstein Probe/SVOM will deliver hundreds of alerts per year, together with the particular relativistic jet and sub-relativistic outflow models used to compute VLBI detectability and proper-motion thresholds. These inputs are stated as assumptions rather than derived from a systematic comparison against the existing (small) sample of radio-detected TDEs; changing the flare fraction or the assumed Lorentz factor distribution by factors of a few would move the annual yield below or above the quoted value.","agreement_with_reader":"agree"},"referee_report":{"model":"grok-4.3","summary":"The manuscript argues that SKA Mid, when phased for VLBI with global networks, will deliver milliarcsecond imaging, tens of microarcsecond astrometry, and microJy sensitivity, enabling proper-motion measurements to distinguish off-axis relativistic jets from subrelativistic winds in TDEs, resolved morphologies via polarimetry, and precise nuclear localization. It forecasts ~5 proper motion detections of jetted TDEs per year, driven by hundreds of annual TDE alerts from LSST, Einstein Probe, and SVOM together with the assumed commonality of late-time radio flares, and outlines observing strategies and additional predictions such as routine core-shift constraints.","tokens_in":1944,"tokens_out":417,"duration_ms":38928,"significance":"If the numerical forecasts hold after detailed validation, the work would usefully map SKA-VLBI capabilities onto TDE science questions including jet launching, particle acceleration, and circumnuclear medium properties. The emphasis on proper-motion discrimination and multi-messenger triggering is a concrete strength, though the paper's impact is limited by its dependence on external rate and model assumptions rather than new derivations.","major_comments":[{"comment":"Abstract: the headline forecast of ~5 proper motion detections per year is presented without any description of the underlying calculation, error propagation, or sensitivity to input parameters such as the fraction of TDEs exhibiting late-time radio flares or the assumed Lorentz-factor distribution of jets.","section":"Abstract"},{"comment":"Abstract: the detection forecasts rely on external literature values for TDE rates, flare incidence, and jet/outflow properties rather than reducing to quantities defined or tested within the manuscript, so that changes in those inputs by factors of a few would alter the annual yield substantially.","section":"Abstract"}],"minor_comments":[],"recommendation":"major_revision","confidential_remarks":"The manuscript functions more as a forward-looking perspective than a research article containing original calculations or data; this may affect suitability for journals that prioritize novel derivations over review-style forecasts."},"author_rebuttal":{"model":"grok-4.3","summary":"We thank the referee for the detailed and constructive report. The comments correctly identify that the abstract presents the headline forecast without sufficient context on its derivation. We address both points below and will revise the manuscript accordingly.","responses":[{"response":"We agree that the abstract would be strengthened by brief context on the forecast. In the revised version we will add one sentence summarizing the main inputs (TDE alert rates from LSST/Einstein Probe/SVOM, assumed late-time flare incidence drawn from existing radio follow-up campaigns, and a fiducial jet Lorentz-factor range) and explicitly refer readers to the dedicated forecast section for the full calculation, error propagation, and parameter-sensitivity analysis.","revision_made":"yes","referee_comment":"[Abstract] Abstract: the headline forecast of ~5 proper motion detections per year is presented without any description of the underlying calculation, error propagation, or sensitivity to input parameters such as the fraction of TDEs exhibiting late-time radio flares or the assumed Lorentz-factor distribution of jets."},{"response":"The forecasts necessarily incorporate published TDE rates and outflow statistics because these quantities are not re-derived in the present work. To make the dependence transparent, we will insert a short sensitivity subsection (or paragraph in the forecast section) that shows how the ~5 detections yr⁻¹ figure scales when the flare incidence or Lorentz-factor distribution is varied by factors of 2–3. This addition will quantify the robustness without altering the core science case.","revision_made":"yes","referee_comment":"[Abstract] Abstract: the detection forecasts rely on external literature values for TDE rates, flare incidence, and jet/outflow properties rather than reducing to quantities defined or tested within the manuscript, so that changes in those inputs by factors of a few would alter the annual yield substantially."}],"tokens_in":1444,"tokens_out":396,"duration_ms":33803,"standing_objections":[]},"desk_editor":{"model":"grok-4.3","letter":"This paper is a forward-looking proposal that spells out how SKA Mid, when phased for VLBI, could track jets and outflows in tidal disruption events. The central number is roughly five proper motion detections of jetted or off-axis TDEs per year once LSST, Einstein Probe, and SVOM push the alert rate to hundreds per year.\n\nIt does a solid job laying out the concrete capabilities: milliarcsecond imaging, tens of microarcsecond astrometry, microJy sensitivity, and polarimetry across 0.35 to 15.4 GHz. The strategies for rapid triggers via the transient buffer and multibeam tied-array VLBI are practical and directly tied to the expected rise in optical and X-ray discoveries. The discussion of core-shift measurements and nuclear localization to separate SMBH from IMBH cases is useful for observers who need to plan actual campaigns.\n\nThe soft spots sit in the forecasts themselves. The annual yield rests on literature values for TDE rates, the fraction that show late-time radio flares, and particular relativistic jet versus sub-relativistic wind models. The abstract gives the headline numbers without showing the calculations or testing how the result moves if the flare fraction or Lorentz factor distribution changes by a factor of a few. That makes the five-per-year figure more of an illustrative target than a robust prediction.\n\nThis work is aimed at radio transient observers and TDE follow-up teams who will be writing SKA proposals or coordinating multi-messenger programs. It is not a new measurement or derivation, so it will not shift the underlying accretion or jet-launching models on its own.\n\nI would bring it to a reading group as a maybe, mainly to walk through the proposed observing modes. I would not cite it in my own papers because it contains no new empirical result. It deserves peer review because the community benefits from explicit strategies for new facilities, provided the modeling assumptions are spelled out more clearly in revision.","headline":"Forecast paper on SKA VLBI for TDEs; the ~5 detections/yr claim depends on assumptions about flare rates and jet models.","tokens_in":2468,"tokens_out":463,"would_cite":false,"duration_ms":43048,"reading_group":"maybe","serious_thinker":"yes","would_accept_peer_review":true},"rs_alignment":null,"lean_confirmation":null,"pith_extraction":{"msc":[],"pacs":[],"model":"grok-4.3","headline":"SKA Mid phased for VLBI will measure proper motions in tidal disruption events to distinguish relativistic jets from subrelativistic winds at a rate of about five detections per year.","keywords":["tidal disruption events","SKA","VLBI","black hole jets","radio outflows","proper motion","polarimetry","nuclear localization"],"falsifier":"A two-year campaign on a sample of 50 TDE radio flares yielding zero proper motion detections at the forecasted sensitivity would falsify the claim of about five detections per year.","tokens_in":2746,"feed_emoji":"📡","tokens_out":767,"duration_ms":30192,"temperature":0.7,"pith_summary":"The paper argues that SKA Mid, when used in VLBI mode with global networks, supplies milliarcsecond imaging, tens of microarcsecond astrometry, and microJy sensitivity needed to track radio-emitting outflows from tidal disruption events. These capabilities would separate off-axis jets from slower winds, map magnetic field structures through polarimetry, and pin down the exact location of the disrupted star relative to the black hole. With optical and X-ray surveys expected to deliver hundreds of TDE alerts annually and late-time radio flares appearing common, the setup would yield routine samples for studying black hole accretion and jet launching on human timescales.","feed_headline":"SKA VLBI will track proper motions in five jetted TDEs per year","feed_subtitle":"Milliarcsecond imaging separates relativistic jets from slower winds and locates the black holes feeding on shredded stars.","key_machinery":"SKA Mid phased for VLBI, using wide frequency coverage from 0.35 to 15.4 GHz, 1-hour continuum sensitivities of 3 to 10 microJy per beam, multibeam tied-array VLBI, and a transient buffer for rapid triggers.","core_discovery":"SKA Mid phased for VLBI delivers milliarcsecond imaging, tens of microarcsecond astrometry, and microJy sensitivity that enable proper motion measurements to discriminate off-axis relativistic jets from subrelativistic winds, resolved morphologies and magnetic field diagnostics via polarimetry, and precise nuclear localization to distinguish supermassive from intermediate-mass black holes or to reveal recoiling or binary systems, with a forecast of about five proper motion detections of jetted TDEs per year.","pith_inferences":["The same VLBI astrometry could be applied to test whether TDE rates correlate with galaxy merger histories in large samples.","Coordinated radio and neutrino observations might reveal whether TDE jets accelerate high-energy particles at detectable levels.","If binary black hole systems are localized, the technique could provide targets for future gravitational wave searches.","Extending the frequency coverage to lower bands might map larger-scale outflow interactions with the host galaxy interstellar medium."],"forward_implications":["Proper motion measurements will discriminate off-axis relativistic jets from subrelativistic winds in TDEs.","Resolved morphologies and magnetic field diagnostics will become available via polarimetry.","Precise nuclear localization will distinguish supermassive black holes from intermediate-mass black holes and reveal recoiling or binary systems.","Routine core shift constraints at the microarcsecond level will constrain jet structure.","TDEs will serve as laboratories for jet launching, particle acceleration including neutrinos, black hole accretion history, and circumnuclear medium properties."],"fun_headline_variants":["SKA VLBI to yield five jetted TDE proper motion detections yearly","Proper motion measurements with SKA VLBI distinguish TDE jets from winds","SKA VLBI astrometry locates TDE feeding black holes precisely","Polarimetry and morphology from milliarcsecond SKA VLBI of TDEs"],"cache_read_input_tokens":2112,"weakest_assumption_plain":"Late-time radio flares are common in TDEs and that LSST, Einstein Probe, and SVOM will increase TDE alerts to hundreds per year, together with the jet and outflow models used for the detection forecasts.","fun_headline_variants_meta":{"raw":{"variants":["SKA VLBI to yield five jetted TDE proper motion detections yearly","Proper motion measurements with SKA VLBI distinguish TDE jets from winds","SKA VLBI astrometry locates TDE feeding black holes precisely","Polarimetry and morphology from milliarcsecond SKA VLBI of TDEs"]},"model":"grok-4.3","cost_usd":0.007571,"raw_usage":{"total_tokens":3514,"prompt_tokens":756,"num_sources_used":0,"completion_tokens":78,"cost_in_usd_ticks":75712000,"prompt_tokens_details":{"text_tokens":756,"audio_tokens":0,"image_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":256},"completion_tokens_details":{"audio_tokens":0,"reasoning_tokens":2680,"accepted_prediction_tokens":0,"rejected_prediction_tokens":0}},"tokens_in":756,"tokens_out":78,"duration_ms":45151,"temperature":1.0,"reasoning_tokens":2680,"cache_read_input_tokens":256,"cache_creation_input_tokens":0},"cache_creation_input_tokens":0},"created_at":"2026-06-26T03:58:44.559003+00:00","model_set":{"reader":"grok-4.3"},"falsifier":"A two-year campaign on a sample of 50 TDE radio flares yielding zero proper motion detections at the forecasted sensitivity would falsify the claim of about five detections per year.","supporting_citations":[],"review_version":1}