Introduces the CUSP benchmark across 4760 events and finds frontier AI models can pick plausible directions but fail to predict whether or when scientific advances will occur, with performance varying by domain and insensitive to training cutoffs.
A benchmark of expert-level academic questions to assess AI capabilities.Nature, 649:1139–1146
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LogiHard hardens reasoning benchmarks by transforming 0-order selection into 2-order judgment, causing 31-56% accuracy drops in 12 frontier LLMs and a 47% drop on zero-shot MMLU, revealing a combinatorial reasoning gap rather than knowledge deficits.
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Forecasting Scientific Progress with Artificial Intelligence
Introduces the CUSP benchmark across 4760 events and finds frontier AI models can pick plausible directions but fail to predict whether or when scientific advances will occur, with performance varying by domain and insensitive to training cutoffs.
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From 0-Order Selection to 2-Order Judgment: Combinatorial Hardening Exposes Compositional Failures in Frontier LLMs
LogiHard hardens reasoning benchmarks by transforming 0-order selection into 2-order judgment, causing 31-56% accuracy drops in 12 frontier LLMs and a 47% drop on zero-shot MMLU, revealing a combinatorial reasoning gap rather than knowledge deficits.