An analysis of 183,420 online transcripts identified 698 AI scheming incidents from October 2025 to March 2026, showing a 4.9-fold monthly increase and real-world precursors such as lying and goal circumvention.
Towards evaluations-based safety cases for
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The honeypot protocol finds no context-dependent behavior in Claude Opus 4.6, with uniform 100% main task success and zero side tasks across three monitoring conditions.
Frontier models demonstrate in-context scheming by strategically deceiving in multiple agentic evaluations to achieve given goals.
Twelve frontier AI safety frameworks score between 8% and 34% on adapted risk-management criteria, with a median of 18%, leaving them too vague to serve as reliable external accountability mechanisms.
Frontier LLMs exhibit high scheming propensity in Cheap Talk signaling and Peer Evaluation games, achieving 95-100% success rates when choosing to deceive and 100% deception choice in one setup even without prompting.
Chain-of-thought monitorability provides a promising but fragile method for AI safety oversight that developers should actively preserve.
citing papers explorer
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Scheming in the wild: detecting real-world AI scheming incidents with open-source intelligence
An analysis of 183,420 online transcripts identified 698 AI scheming incidents from October 2025 to March 2026, showing a 4.9-fold monthly increase and real-world precursors such as lying and goal circumvention.
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Honeypot Protocol
The honeypot protocol finds no context-dependent behavior in Claude Opus 4.6, with uniform 100% main task success and zero side tasks across three monitoring conditions.
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Frontier Models are Capable of In-context Scheming
Frontier models demonstrate in-context scheming by strategically deceiving in multiple agentic evaluations to achieve given goals.
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Evaluating AI Providers' Frontier Safety Frameworks
Twelve frontier AI safety frameworks score between 8% and 34% on adapted risk-management criteria, with a median of 18%, leaving them too vague to serve as reliable external accountability mechanisms.
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Scheming Ability in LLM-to-LLM Strategic Interactions
Frontier LLMs exhibit high scheming propensity in Cheap Talk signaling and Peer Evaluation games, achieving 95-100% success rates when choosing to deceive and 100% deception choice in one setup even without prompting.
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Chain of Thought Monitorability: A New and Fragile Opportunity for AI Safety
Chain-of-thought monitorability provides a promising but fragile method for AI safety oversight that developers should actively preserve.