Prediction market prices for Bitcoin thresholds on Polymarket exceed option-implied probabilities from Binance by 5.6-6.3 percentage points on average, with the gap persistent yet mean-reverting.
Bruno Jullien and Bernard Salanié
2 Pith papers cite this work. Polarity classification is still indexing.
2
Pith papers citing it
verdicts
UNVERDICTED 2representative citing papers
P2P Bitcoin premiums reflect limits to arbitrage in crypto markets and cross-border payment frictions, and predict official exchange rate depreciation where capital controls bind.
citing papers explorer
-
Do Prediction Markets Match Option Prices? Bitcoin Threshold Evidence from Binance and Polymarket
Prediction market prices for Bitcoin thresholds on Polymarket exceed option-implied probabilities from Binance by 5.6-6.3 percentage points on average, with the gap persistent yet mean-reverting.
-
What Do Bitcoin Premiums Measure? Evidence from Global P2P Markets
P2P Bitcoin premiums reflect limits to arbitrage in crypto markets and cross-border payment frictions, and predict official exchange rate depreciation where capital controls bind.