MotifGen is the first multi-source generative model for spatiotemporal interpolation of misaligned microwave cyclone images from heterogeneous instruments at irregular intervals, achieving lower CRPS via self-supervised training and closer power spectra than deterministic baselines when combining in
Archesweather & archesweathergen: a deterministic and generative model for efficient ml weather forecasting.arXiv preprint arXiv:2412.12971
5 Pith papers cite this work, alongside 1 external citations. Polarity classification is still indexing.
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Augments the energy score objective for sample-based generative models with a differentiable decision loss that is itself a proper scoring rule, yielding targeted improvements on cost-sensitive regions in synthetic and real tasks.
Tyche achieves competitive probabilistic weather forecasting skill and calibration using a single-step flow model with JVP-regularized training and rollout finetuning.
Otter Weather is a spatiotemporal model that outperforms NWP baselines by 9.6% at 24h lead with under 3.5 A100-days training and extends efficiency gains to probabilistic forecasting via CRPS.
A standard U-Net with MAE pre-training plus short CRPS fine-tuning and MC Dropout matches GenCast and IFS ENS probabilistic skill at 1.5° while cutting training and inference cost by over 10×.
citing papers explorer
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MotifGen: Spatiotemporal interpolation of misaligned satellite images via multi-source generative modeling, in an application to tropical cyclones
MotifGen is the first multi-source generative model for spatiotemporal interpolation of misaligned microwave cyclone images from heterogeneous instruments at irregular intervals, achieving lower CRPS via self-supervised training and closer power spectra than deterministic baselines when combining in
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Decision-Aware Training for Sample-Based Generative Models
Augments the energy score objective for sample-based generative models with a differentiable decision loss that is itself a proper scoring rule, yielding targeted improvements on cost-sensitive regions in synthetic and real tasks.
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Tyche: One Step Flow for Efficient Probabilistic Weather Forecasting
Tyche achieves competitive probabilistic weather forecasting skill and calibration using a single-step flow model with JVP-regularized training and rollout finetuning.
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Otter Weather: Skillful and Computationally Efficient Medium-Range Weather Forecasting
Otter Weather is a spatiotemporal model that outperforms NWP baselines by 9.6% at 24h lead with under 3.5 A100-days training and extends efficiency gains to probabilistic forecasting via CRPS.
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U-Cast: A Surprisingly Simple and Efficient Frontier Probabilistic AI Weather Forecaster
A standard U-Net with MAE pre-training plus short CRPS fine-tuning and MC Dropout matches GenCast and IFS ENS probabilistic skill at 1.5° while cutting training and inference cost by over 10×.