Trajectory geometry in embedding space fused with coverage and verbalization yields better black-box CoT confidence estimation than self-consistency at lower sample counts across six benchmark-reasoner pairs.
Mechpert: Mechanistic consensus as an inductive bias for unseen perturbation prediction.arXiv preprint arXiv:2602.13791
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Measuring Black-Box Confidence via Reasoning Trajectories: Geometry, Coverage, and Verbalization
Trajectory geometry in embedding space fused with coverage and verbalization yields better black-box CoT confidence estimation than self-consistency at lower sample counts across six benchmark-reasoner pairs.