IV-ICL learns the marginal posterior of causal effects via in-context learning to derive bounds as quantiles, recovering the identified set more reliably than variational inference while running 20-500x faster.
Covariate adjustment for two-sample treatment comparisons in randomized clinical trials: a principled yet flexible approach.Statistics in medicine, 27(23):4658–4677
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IV-ICL: Bounding Causal Effects with Instrumental Variables via In-Context Learning
IV-ICL learns the marginal posterior of causal effects via in-context learning to derive bounds as quantiles, recovering the identified set more reliably than variational inference while running 20-500x faster.