The paper derives that calibration-conditional coverage follows a Beta(k, n+1-k) law under continuous i.i.d. exchangeability and quantifies non-i.i.d. departures via Wasserstein distances on transported beta laws, yielding explicit bounds in scale-shift, clustered, and mixing regimes.
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Conformal Prediction via Transported Beta Laws
The paper derives that calibration-conditional coverage follows a Beta(k, n+1-k) law under continuous i.i.d. exchangeability and quantifies non-i.i.d. departures via Wasserstein distances on transported beta laws, yielding explicit bounds in scale-shift, clustered, and mixing regimes.