Expected Threat model error follows an approximate log-normal distribution, enabling rules of thumb for reliable use in football player evaluation despite unobservable ground truth.
Paper presented at the 13th International Conference on Sport Sciences Research and Technology Support (icSPORTS), Marbella, Spain, 21-22 October 2025 (2025)
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Model quality in football: Quantifying the quality of an Expected Threat model
Expected Threat model error follows an approximate log-normal distribution, enabling rules of thumb for reliable use in football player evaluation despite unobservable ground truth.