A sequential hypothesis test on incident reports can flag subgroups overrepresented relative to their population share, identifying known harms in vaccine and mortgage data early.
Sharp Finite-Time Iterated-Logarithm Martingale Concentration
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abstract
We give concentration bounds for martingales that are uniform over finite times and extend classical Hoeffding and Bernstein inequalities. We also demonstrate our concentration bounds to be optimal with a matching anti-concentration inequality, proved using the same method. Together these constitute a finite-time version of the law of the iterated logarithm, and shed light on the relationship between it and the central limit theorem.
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From Individual Experience to Collective Evidence: A Reporting-Based Framework for Identifying Systemic Harms
A sequential hypothesis test on incident reports can flag subgroups overrepresented relative to their population share, identifying known harms in vaccine and mortgage data early.