{"work":{"id":"d837e1f4-077f-4986-ae51-90b940d7dbf4","openalex_id":"https://openalex.org/W7134048644","doi":"10.48550/arxiv.2603.05472","arxiv_id":"2603.05472","raw_key":null,"title":"The Bayesian view of DESI DR2 with unimpeded: Evidence and tension in a combined analysis with CMB and supernovae across cosmological models","authors":null,"authors_text":"D","year":2026,"venue":"astro-ph.CO","abstract":"We apply the $\\texttt{unimpeded}$ framework to perform a fully Bayesian reanalysis of the DESI DR2 data, using nested sampling with $\\texttt{PolyChord}$ to compute evidences for $\\Lambda$CDM and seven extensions across combinations of DESI DR1/DR2, Planck CMB, supernovae (Pantheon+, Union3, DES-SN5YR, DES-Dovekie), and DES-Y1 weak lensing. The Bayesian Ockham's razor penalises extended models, yielding weaker or opposite preferences compared to $\\Delta\\chi^2$-based analyses. For DESI DR2 BAO combined with Planck CMB alone, the DESI collaboration's $3.1\\sigma$ frequentist preference for $w_0w_a$CDM is eliminated entirely: we obtain ${\\ln B = -0.57{\\scriptstyle\\pm0.26}}$, modestly favouring $\\Lambda$CDM. Adding DES-Dovekie, the recalibration of DES-SN5YR, maintains this concordance (${\\ln B = -0.30{\\scriptstyle\\pm0.19}}$). However, when the earlier DES-SN5YR calibration is included instead, the DESI collaboration's $4.2\\sigma$ result survives the Bayesian Ockham penalty as a $3.07{\\scriptstyle\\pm0.10},\\sigma$ preference (${\\ln B = +3.32{\\scriptstyle\\pm0.27}}$). That this signal persists despite the Ockham penalty makes the role of tension quantification essential: our analysis traced the preference to the earlier DES-SN5YR calibration, which introduced a $2.95{\\scriptstyle\\pm 0.04},\\sigma$ conflict with DESI DR2 within $\\Lambda$CDM -- a tension that stands out from the grid -- reduced to $1.96{\\scriptstyle\\pm 0.04},\\sigma$ with the DES-Dovekie recalibration. With DES-Dovekie, the Bayesian evidence for dynamical dark energy vanishes.","external_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.05472","cited_by_count":0,"metadata_source":"pith","metadata_fetched_at":"2026-08-05T02:28:24.338817+00:00","pith_arxiv_id":"2603.05472","created_at":"2026-05-08T23:49:25.168617+00:00","updated_at":"2026-08-05T02:28:24.338817+00:00","title_quality_ok":true,"display_title":"The Bayesian view of DESI DR2 with unimpeded: Evidence and tension in a combined analysis with CMB and supernovae across cosmological models","render_title":"The Bayesian view of DESI DR2 with unimpeded: Evidence and tension in a combined analysis with CMB and supernovae across cosmological models"},"hub":{"state":{"work_id":"d837e1f4-077f-4986-ae51-90b940d7dbf4","tier":"hub","tier_reason":"10+ Pith inbound or 1,000+ external citations","pith_inbound_count":17,"external_cited_by_count":0,"distinct_field_count":1,"first_pith_cited_at":"2026-03-27T16:25:41+00:00","last_pith_cited_at":"2026-07-08T17:38:46+00:00","author_build_status":"not_needed","summary_status":"needed","contexts_status":"needed","graph_status":"needed","ask_index_status":"not_needed","reader_status":"not_needed","recognition_status":"not_needed","updated_at":"2026-08-23T18:09:55.724800+00:00","tier_text":"hub"},"tier":"hub","role_counts":[{"context_role":"background","n":8},{"context_role":"baseline","n":1},{"context_role":"dataset","n":1},{"context_role":"method","n":1}],"polarity_counts":[{"context_polarity":"background","n":8},{"context_polarity":"baseline","n":1},{"context_polarity":"use_dataset","n":1},{"context_polarity":"use_method","n":1}],"runs":{},"summary":{},"graph":{},"authors":[]}}