Uniform upper bounds for the cyclicity of the zero solution of the Abel differential equation

Given two polynomials $P,q$ we consider the following question: "how large can the index of the first non-zero moment $\tilde{m}_k=\int_a^b P^k q$ be, assuming the sequence is not identically zero?". The answer $K$ to this question is known as the moment Bautin index, and we provide the first general upper bound: $K\leqslant 2+\mathrm{deg} q+3(\mathrm{deg} P-1)^2$. The proof is based on qualitative analysis of linear ODEs, applied to Cauchy-type integrals of certain algebraic functions. The moment Bautin index plays an important role in the study of bifurcations of periodic solution in the polynomial Abel equation $y'=py^2+\varepsilon qy^3$ for $p,q$ polynomials and $\varepsilon \ll 1$. In particular, our result implies that for $p$ satisfying a well-known generic condition, the number of periodic solutions near the zero solution does not exceed $5+\mathrm{deg} q+3\mathrm{deg}^2 p$. This is the first such bound depending solely on the degrees of the Abel equation.