{"as_of":"2026-07-31T19:31:00Z","caps":{"database_statements":6,"inbound":100,"outbound":100},"context_digest":"sha256:becfc9bfa267d521437cebf31b8150f28b08199e9571baef7a295d801c1310d1","coverage":[{"denominator":37,"lane":"reference_resolution","note":"Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.","records_observed":37,"source":"paper_references, paper_reference_links","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","state":"measured"},{"denominator":37,"lane":"standing_notices","note":"One-hop event checks from named stored sources.","records_observed":37,"source":"scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache","source_observed_at":"2026-07-31T06:34:12.847434+00:00","state":"measured"},{"denominator":0,"lane":"inbound_itemization","note":"Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.","records_observed":0,"source":"paper_references, paper_reference_links","source_observed_at":null,"state":"measured"},{"denominator":1,"lane":"external_citation_measurements","note":"A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.","records_observed":0,"source":"cited_works","source_observed_at":null,"state":"measured"}],"external_citation_measurements":[],"inbound":[],"links":{"evidence":"/evidence","html":"/paper/2607.06166/citation-record","integrity":"/paper/2607.06166/integrity","json":"/paper/2607.06166/citation-record.json","paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"outbound":[{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , volume =","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":null},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":1,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:f60d507a117c0953ad92d13b5f9d58c02d8d8f5ebd90f77900c6cb9024250b93","observation_id":"b9b98969-55a8-4cd2-8174-f365f488bacc","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"Savage , journal =","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":null},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":2,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:99e66b7a0154551cd82cff54f2deb1d30d3e309d0bde8bc8d466edeed928a1c2","observation_id":"a1f9ee6c-5b64-4283-9d5c-effe1b2d56f7","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"2025 , eprint=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2025},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":3,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:3132aa3bb94ee197e12c2ea9bef33136e3cbed420fd6cae7e25a6adc5e52bfda","observation_id":"123a7445-38fd-4279-baed-bc26b7400f8b","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2025) Workshop: Generative AI in Finance , year=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2025},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":4,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:b25c87641f7197be079cbdcfaaca84b3c992dbda9d5fb55cd1c9283d5d930296","observation_id":"03b85c95-2ed9-418f-b734-5a679abae2d3","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"the bell system technical journal , volume=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":1956},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":5,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:a1bdba17012ab2b19af5f8e2a5cf128044c87231526d29747d84983e46a334f9","observation_id":"1f979cba-2de8-466e-853d-10081c290f82","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"Monthly Weather Review , volume=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":1950},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":6,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:b813d618780d4b3a1ccb14c3c007f76a8a725946af3712206c0fd151d50f5656","observation_id":"6f367820-93fe-43c3-b675-6319912f29ca","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological) , volume=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":null},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":7,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:ed132d2963b955bdd76c85abbc0f0bfdcc2ec3918f1949629ab94838451dad13","observation_id":"203babde-62b7-4267-8633-9c302f76a5bf","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Symposium on Information Theory , pages=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":null},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":8,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:5e381bc258d9c90203b20b971cb6c85cf9301a5ccd105a63106b357a0a42896f","observation_id":"b01fd32d-0592-4d1e-a769-67c65fc6e614","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"Foundations of Statistical Inference , pages=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":null},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":9,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:bf6f671d289e30df1446dbb477e76590289e060d9700c6f9da73c035a0aef5b6","observation_id":"d57effac-d953-4637-a0e1-7f933ef04c22","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":null,"venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":null},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":10,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:c182f2f3f0cef52f69eff7ed43b99aa47fe8b3395016b7a72cf0a20938cfdd0f","observation_id":"7d4b54ad-c0f1-4cb9-a2ee-796eb6495314","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"Journal of the American statistical Association , volume=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2007},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":11,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:2a55c4844bbcbcc1b3081f5de407b61e6b3941ec0e0eaf6889bfb96291740c04","observation_id":"31dfca8a-3d66-491a-97ab-96d5e3db102f","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"Proceedings of the 9th ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce , pages=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":null},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":12,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:b7b310b34d53233290404d33b9a30f044c6c038370ee5d310bf9608a622565ef","observation_id":"fcd790d9-57e1-4e5c-80de-106c907e30a5","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"Proceedings of the 23rd ACM Conference on Economics and Computation , pages=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":null},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":13,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:9a2abe568c5547bd908b030b0136ae2d378be9d821c6230c0025a0b024fc8165","observation_id":"5cf99d47-4fc9-4b5b-bcb1-01b956267384","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"Proceedings of the 11th ACM conference on Electronic commerce , pages=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":null},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":14,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:6015937bd4b71bb24d08c04bf30b67e48c37e1246aefa2f1a0502fc8a24e93c1","observation_id":"cfc096b9-ea51-404c-880b-8843929f54ed","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"Journal of economic perspectives , volume=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2004},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":15,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:975aa0d8e14333a056cfa5cfdcde5511fa107c674ac9faa63e5a4ddf7112d3e1","observation_id":"00e143dd-1e51-45d0-9b1e-677e4d44c109","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"2008 , publisher=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2008},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":16,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:259d8560ba34fcbfb79c687a44d77dc4be313d64c26fb4add4500d571f2ee1c3","observation_id":"5ceceacf-be8b-4543-89b1-9add8ef06780","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"Proceedings of the 5th ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce (EC) , pages=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":null},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":17,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:367fcbba2fb0163ea8fd508c40c22de0de4efe270ed6a33fd5b89f0696798a0f","observation_id":"b50ffb0c-f814-4c68-897b-738ec9653879","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"Journal of Prediction Markets , volume=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":null},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":18,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:f241d8627c3999f1711a3ab9ab4a8ab821e75e8d3fd804b98a16ae45c5231b22","observation_id":"b6bc8657-6fcf-43db-b981-4feb37b3e200","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"Proceedings of the 23rd Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI) , pages=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":null},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":19,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:e2adff65145eec90afe0c4321dc94fcbde94176ca41411a44bddcdb7520640ee","observation_id":"18496a45-b4ad-4aab-bfe3-c4037ccb3e78","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"ACM Transactions on Economics and Computation (TEAC) , volume=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2013},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":20,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:c11dd7c480d75a88108d9cdf07423a1a116f4572864d8de2f64231f3869e67fa","observation_id":"4441f58e-42ab-4dc9-94e6-2993ca7e692f","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"Proceedings of the 10th ACM conference on Electronic commerce , pages=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":null},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":21,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:722fe26e7b34d567fb12eb12bc217820732f50c88efa07b0a49e629675a4e395","observation_id":"c387598a-a440-4825-8903-cde099ba514e","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"Algorithmica , volume=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2010},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":22,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:13c146c0afa12080bfeee2f463fbc22f824af01336872ed921127f878fc1c012","observation_id":"46ea82c0-ef98-42d0-9749-e6a94984a4f0","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"Handbook of experimental economics results , volume=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2008},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":23,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:2a4a30b9eb95bcbc8aba07aa15043e9c958166f840b39ce75c4312ae89ca747b","observation_id":"cf3dd059-aaf2-4a90-8873-325f4e3d122e","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"Public Opinion Quarterly , volume=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2009},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":24,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:50c57b59c24943328e7d93a1274cafe782824f5d9f58991b21ef0d2962b1e1e4","observation_id":"fec7c83e-8b99-4bf4-ac0d-039adadc13dc","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems , volume=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":null},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":25,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:51a55010adc48faf28887d2a726011d47f9b7e07b3c89581b36e37bf654eb7a6","observation_id":"fb22c7d0-c447-4202-9a7a-7816524bb481","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems , volume=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":null},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":26,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:1dddfb5c1c669768c33343cb9e2b85f9156e9cfa422ee40783079cf1e9161ab1","observation_id":"ff1fc6e8-5436-4b7b-8f53-8ded59b617ec","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"Stochastic optimization models in finance , pages=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":1975},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":27,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:f69fb1152139e92fece4aec7f51af28dc0ef20b6ac28be6a3f89e89ee064b7b5","observation_id":"aab8705d-f9ac-4d06-9a60-2d7929cdd604","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"2011 , publisher=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2011},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":28,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:9a61b3e4c57e856ec35ccdd19919e173ee0c33732780b9ac9c471a957c1810a3","observation_id":"0ef5531a-098a-41f3-86e0-ae067cb7182b","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"Management Science , volume=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":1992},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":29,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:a2949ecc32681c9f3065dff1d7efdb1f7be36aed69c0be635dd934268df24a46","observation_id":"8b37a1ea-8992-4e0f-afff-c86eec966a74","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"Mathematical finance , volume=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":1991},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":30,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:dfd05f46577cb788e11fc1825497315f70533cf2b69bd83bcb98cefce25769d1","observation_id":"1bafdf1f-0ba5-4038-af0d-0f819a7f8aa4","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2412.18544","last_updated":"2025-01-10T01:06:06Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-06T20:12:54.710203Z","submitted_at":"2024-12-24T16:51:35Z","title":"Consistency Checks for Language Model Forecasters","version":2},"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":"2412.18544","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"arXiv preprint arXiv:2412.18544 , year=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":null},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":31,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"cited_paper":"/paper/2412.18544","citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:929a47f15c0e0dbb88ff554d54e4fb62b383942c61a6d97fd96619687ba5ba15","observation_id":"aef44825-335c-4b73-80cd-32fa8b79f387","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"American Economic Review , volume=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2015},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":32,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:111f7c5a378f79453fdc7ae62e06efcb2e4f9d90c5d03688b8ce69fd9510f2d1","observation_id":"8705d8aa-95be-4b4b-b708-92919479757d","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"International joint conference on artificial intelligence , volume=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2001},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":33,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:172afcd5b50a96c66d24bd4ea76a3682cb47c796cd0bdec33e154cc5490a18bf","observation_id":"0a5750b2-d5f2-46c7-8cbc-4e9690bce924","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"Who Profits from Prediction Markets? Execution, not Information , publisher =","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":null},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":34,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:75420389bf7dd378e455f7fa0a3d7e34f4a473d990b717c7ca42b6056c85868e","observation_id":"d12b0de3-a1f7-4948-ba51-3f2d7e32f446","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"The American Economic Review , volume=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":1945},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":35,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:b7bd0a10ca120783ba0c7531e21f1cb41d99db87d6eb714ee2bbec28f7b123df","observation_id":"199c5d55-4019-42b4-b68c-9da8596ae635","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":null,"venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2023},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":36,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:b0ba670e04335ba14eead2f08751bdab2c3a8c6e949aeb9665432313fb8c4bca","observation_id":"01e2815b-cd08-41fa-8613-1e73ccd15258","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"parse_uncertain"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","title":"Available at SSRN , year=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":null},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","version":2},"reference_index":37,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.06166"},"observation_digest":"sha256:adc507332ef3f4e2e30893ce0e385805c252ff22d48ad5f995f3c3e579a7ebef","observation_id":"2f74651e-d23e-450f-ac07-601e232c3ad5","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}}],"paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.06166","last_updated":"2026-07-11T01:51:28Z","latest_version":2,"primary_category":"cs.AI","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:17:57.488376Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-07T11:41:46Z","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?"},"reference_resolution":{"displayed":37,"state_counts":{"malformed_identifier":0,"metadata_mismatch":0,"parse_uncertain":1,"unresolved":36,"verified_exact":0,"verified_fuzzy":0},"total_outbound_references":37},"refusal":"A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.","schema":"pith.paper-citation-record.v1","standing_sources":[{"observed_at":"2026-07-31T06:34:12.847434+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-07-31T06:34:08.642788+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"thesis":"As of 31 July 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 37 of 37 outbound references and 0 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:2607.06166."}