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arxiv: 1707.02659 · v2 · pith:GZ4YPWSMnew · submitted 2017-07-09 · 🧮 math.PR

Likelihood Ratio Gradient Estimation for Steady-State Parameters

classification 🧮 math.PR
keywords boldsymbolthetaalphagradientlikelihoodratiosteady-stateanalyze
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We consider a discrete-time Markov chain $\boldsymbol{\Phi}$ on a general state-space ${\sf X}$, whose transition probabilities are parameterized by a real-valued vector $\boldsymbol{\theta}$. Under the assumption that $\boldsymbol{\Phi}$ is geometrically ergodic with corresponding stationary distribution $\pi(\boldsymbol{\theta})$, we are interested in estimating the gradient $\nabla \alpha(\boldsymbol{\theta})$ of the steady-state expectation $$\alpha(\boldsymbol{\theta}) = \pi( \boldsymbol{\theta}) f.$$ To this end, we first give sufficient conditions for the differentiability of $\alpha(\boldsymbol{\theta})$ and for the calculation of its gradient via a sequence of finite horizon expectations. We then propose two different likelihood ratio estimators and analyze their limiting behavior.

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