Not yet reviewed by Pith; the record is open.

Numerical and experimental studies of transitional pipe flow have shown the prevalence of coherent flow structures that are dominated by downstream vortices. They attract special attention because they contribute predominantly to the increase of the Reynolds stresses in turbulent flow. In the present study we introduce a convenient detector for these coherent states, calculate the fraction of time the structures appear in the flow, and present a Markov model for the transition between the structures. The fraction of states that show vortical structures exceeds 24% for a Reynolds number of about Re=2200, and it decreases to about 20% for Re=2500. The Markov model for the transition between these states is in good agreement with the observed fraction of states, and in reasonable agreement with the prediction for their persistence. It provides insight into dominant qualitative changes of the flow when increasing the Reynolds number.