{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2016:2FJH4ZJL3UI5EQW4PQTP7ZP5PM","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"2a3d43c47cb5c5e9e55d0f5a4aa4ca8de895deb6dc8103a9f510dee0232a3de0","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2016-06-16T07:00:49Z","title_canon_sha256":"7915b78d0bd9fa6cd25945f185f537d99eef55cf7ca1adb8c4e7ec9d6d29d05b"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1606.05067","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1606.05067","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:03:40Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1606.05067v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:03:40Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1606.05067","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:03:40Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"2FJH4ZJL3UI5","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:55Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"2FJH4ZJL3UI5EQW4","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:55Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"2FJH4ZJL","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:55Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:63fd90d18794b37248808be08377b830d80c21d6395e49df9f618203c36574df","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:03:40Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"A multilevel functional data method is adapted for forecasting age-specific mortality for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses multilevel functional principal component analysis of aggregate and population-specific data to extract the common trend and population-specific residual trend among populations. If the forecasts of population-specific residual trends do not show a long-term trend, then convergence in forecasts may be achieved. This method is first applied to age- and sex-specific data for the United Kingdom, and its forec","authors_text":"Han Lin Shang","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2016-06-16T07:00:49Z","title":"Mortality and life expectancy forecasting for a group of populations in developed countries: A multilevel functional data method"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1606.05067","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:b870c39bb7c4c7c94a6b6d8d8429c1f5d57fc44ed378f959d5e6b8aa21b6ef28","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:03:40Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"2a3d43c47cb5c5e9e55d0f5a4aa4ca8de895deb6dc8103a9f510dee0232a3de0","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2016-06-16T07:00:49Z","title_canon_sha256":"7915b78d0bd9fa6cd25945f185f537d99eef55cf7ca1adb8c4e7ec9d6d29d05b"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1606.05067","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"d1527e652bdd11d242dc7c26ffe5fd7b0f9b02080244b4f7097e0983f22e3780","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"d1527e652bdd11d242dc7c26ffe5fd7b0f9b02080244b4f7097e0983f22e3780","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T01:03:40.594843Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T01:03:40.594843Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"dVt/k7hNAe3MCy0jMBPuWkzid9BnMz+Fuv6RPhldI3Sb4nnFYB9bnC5M5YB14D5wwGwcrm7Io0QjK0ETCAb8Ag==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T01:03:40.595345Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1606.05067","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:b870c39bb7c4c7c94a6b6d8d8429c1f5d57fc44ed378f959d5e6b8aa21b6ef28","sha256:63fd90d18794b37248808be08377b830d80c21d6395e49df9f618203c36574df"],"state_sha256":"52a9389165597c0ff6f3ddda306adc217c303f180c5641308bcfeae56001f95c"}