{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2022:2GPG4M3LT5ZH2LSURV6HF765DC","short_pith_number":"pith:2GPG4M3L","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2201.05893","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2022-01-15T17:21:26Z","cross_cats_sorted":["econ.EM","math.OC","stat.ML"],"title_canon_sha256":"858b40cc5361567a249aaf8345837c792c8df336031bad98b249b7d3a7d518e5","abstract_canon_sha256":"db7df6485f988c52dc7dc6bd5f50d6aef218b2ce4982794ad1cbd8ad5940ec67"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"d19e6e336b9f727d2e548d7c72ffdd1893aec4185489b0639d4527b1241738c2","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"2201.05893","version":2},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2201.05893","created_at":"2026-07-05T04:41:30Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2201.05893v2","created_at":"2026-07-05T04:41:30Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2201.05893","created_at":"2026-07-05T04:41:30Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"2GPG4M3LT5ZH","created_at":"2026-07-05T04:41:30Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"2GPG4M3LT5ZH2LSU","created_at":"2026-07-05T04:41:30Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"2GPG4M3L","created_at":"2026-07-05T04:41:30Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2022:2GPG4M3LT5ZH2LSURV6HF765DC","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2201.05893","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2022-01-15T17:21:26Z","cross_cats_sorted":["econ.EM","math.OC","stat.ML"],"title_canon_sha256":"858b40cc5361567a249aaf8345837c792c8df336031bad98b249b7d3a7d518e5","abstract_canon_sha256":"db7df6485f988c52dc7dc6bd5f50d6aef218b2ce4982794ad1cbd8ad5940ec67"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"d19e6e336b9f727d2e548d7c72ffdd1893aec4185489b0639d4527b1241738c2","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-07-05T04:41:30.671245Z","signature_b64":"kZBh4yykPVyrFjZP6ZAS4/rnCVmqX5VmI2XcfgNTN+6/LodEGnTNU7tISmfqT9Ulfn0crLpC4H17aueOsy9BDQ==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"d19e6e336b9f727d2e548d7c72ffdd1893aec4185489b0639d4527b1241738c2","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T04:41:30.670778Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T04:41:30.670778Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"2201.05893","source_version":2,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-05T04:41:30Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"fXtpZq1PLUHAz3j/TwOFxc65lPLTRlJsHVRP0A4QT6OFvwI9vNeC+dzOrm5n10i9h25dfKFqMeZcg1keR1MBBQ==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-08T05:59:53.725724Z"},"content_sha256":"09a56154edfb609fc56b4eeaeaf37150d5b72d65d49a5e4d314424de526dc201","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:09a56154edfb609fc56b4eeaeaf37150d5b72d65d49a5e4d314424de526dc201"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2022:2GPG4M3LT5ZH2LSURV6HF765DC","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Treatment Effect Risk: Bounds and Inference","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["econ.EM","math.OC","stat.ML"],"primary_cat":"stat.ME","authors_text":"Nathan Kallus","submitted_at":"2022-01-15T17:21:26Z","abstract_excerpt":"Since the average treatment effect (ATE) measures the change in social welfare, even if positive, there is a risk of negative effect on, say, some 10% of the population. Assessing such risk is difficult, however, because any one individual treatment effect (ITE) is never observed, so the 10% worst-affected cannot be identified, while distributional treatment effects only compare the first deciles within each treatment group, which does not correspond to any 10%-subpopulation. In this paper we consider how to nonetheless assess this important risk measure, formalized as the conditional value at"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2201.05893","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2201.05893/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-05T04:41:30Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"KLCxQAZ/Lg8vPoSiS/2l5fGPgJ9oQgxCLRVvY03v5vJOV9jiCXprnkEfE1wMm/uvuK7miWi0WXB3Z+qtvkJTDA==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-08T05:59:53.726330Z"},"content_sha256":"a8185741db6ba393cd784595bac752a21f7a04c0155ce77db42ebca6742087ed","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:a8185741db6ba393cd784595bac752a21f7a04c0155ce77db42ebca6742087ed"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/2GPG4M3LT5ZH2LSURV6HF765DC/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/2GPG4M3LT5ZH2LSURV6HF765DC/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/2GPG4M3LT5ZH2LSURV6HF765DC/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-08-08T05:59:53Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/2GPG4M3LT5ZH2LSURV6HF765DC","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/2GPG4M3LT5ZH2LSURV6HF765DC/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/2GPG4M3LT5ZH2LSURV6HF765DC/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/2GPG4M3LT5ZH2LSURV6HF765DC/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2022:2GPG4M3LT5ZH2LSURV6HF765DC","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"db7df6485f988c52dc7dc6bd5f50d6aef218b2ce4982794ad1cbd8ad5940ec67","cross_cats_sorted":["econ.EM","math.OC","stat.ML"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2022-01-15T17:21:26Z","title_canon_sha256":"858b40cc5361567a249aaf8345837c792c8df336031bad98b249b7d3a7d518e5"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2201.05893","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2201.05893","created_at":"2026-07-05T04:41:30Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2201.05893v2","created_at":"2026-07-05T04:41:30Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2201.05893","created_at":"2026-07-05T04:41:30Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"2GPG4M3LT5ZH","created_at":"2026-07-05T04:41:30Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"2GPG4M3LT5ZH2LSU","created_at":"2026-07-05T04:41:30Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"2GPG4M3L","created_at":"2026-07-05T04:41:30Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:a8185741db6ba393cd784595bac752a21f7a04c0155ce77db42ebca6742087ed","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-07-05T04:41:30Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2201.05893/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Since the average treatment effect (ATE) measures the change in social welfare, even if positive, there is a risk of negative effect on, say, some 10% of the population. Assessing such risk is difficult, however, because any one individual treatment effect (ITE) is never observed, so the 10% worst-affected cannot be identified, while distributional treatment effects only compare the first deciles within each treatment group, which does not correspond to any 10%-subpopulation. In this paper we consider how to nonetheless assess this important risk measure, formalized as the conditional value at","authors_text":"Nathan Kallus","cross_cats":["econ.EM","math.OC","stat.ML"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2022-01-15T17:21:26Z","title":"Treatment Effect Risk: Bounds and Inference"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2201.05893","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:09a56154edfb609fc56b4eeaeaf37150d5b72d65d49a5e4d314424de526dc201","target":"record","created_at":"2026-07-05T04:41:30Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"db7df6485f988c52dc7dc6bd5f50d6aef218b2ce4982794ad1cbd8ad5940ec67","cross_cats_sorted":["econ.EM","math.OC","stat.ML"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2022-01-15T17:21:26Z","title_canon_sha256":"858b40cc5361567a249aaf8345837c792c8df336031bad98b249b7d3a7d518e5"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2201.05893","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"canonical_sha256":"d19e6e336b9f727d2e548d7c72ffdd1893aec4185489b0639d4527b1241738c2","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"d19e6e336b9f727d2e548d7c72ffdd1893aec4185489b0639d4527b1241738c2","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T04:41:30.670778Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T04:41:30.670778Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"kZBh4yykPVyrFjZP6ZAS4/rnCVmqX5VmI2XcfgNTN+6/LodEGnTNU7tISmfqT9Ulfn0crLpC4H17aueOsy9BDQ==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-07-05T04:41:30.671245Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2201.05893","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":2}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:09a56154edfb609fc56b4eeaeaf37150d5b72d65d49a5e4d314424de526dc201","sha256:a8185741db6ba393cd784595bac752a21f7a04c0155ce77db42ebca6742087ed"],"state_sha256":"b48ef3ff413d0f427845954b368dd236ba4ced35eb11f9e742480ce6a67c790f"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"Wiz++bLS7nhIZpEfXX97kgoRJju1ddc9Y+F5mNhbKtaaD6e2w5xyvJl5n1MEuc8m9CIlCWQQ23vQEAUMGiHqCw==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-08T05:59:53.731328Z","bundle_sha256":"9b23f7c49a981e0a38a5bad90fcfa4dc47702a7a3c1fff5caf7579ec4d21b8cc"}}