{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2019:2H4OBAT5CBYIMQP45ALHA2BNNA","short_pith_number":"pith:2H4OBAT5","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1902.10061","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2019-02-06T13:45:07Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG","stat.ML"],"title_canon_sha256":"11621c9b0c9c6053e2530ba6990f5cb3c89e3e508f4ff4f414884d610a9b6010","abstract_canon_sha256":"4108d565ad518db91afb2c1e167ccc8f5e246e872898f229ce472f1a36a3cd54"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"d1f8e0827d10708641fce81670682d682378e9d0b495080e46ba947985b7ee9e","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1902.10061","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1902.10061","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:52:34Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1902.10061v1","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:52:34Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1902.10061","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:52:34Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"2H4OBAT5CBYI","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:07Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"2H4OBAT5CBYIMQP4","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:07Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"2H4OBAT5","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:07Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2019:2H4OBAT5CBYIMQP45ALHA2BNNA","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1902.10061","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2019-02-06T13:45:07Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG","stat.ML"],"title_canon_sha256":"11621c9b0c9c6053e2530ba6990f5cb3c89e3e508f4ff4f414884d610a9b6010","abstract_canon_sha256":"4108d565ad518db91afb2c1e167ccc8f5e246e872898f229ce472f1a36a3cd54"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"d1f8e0827d10708641fce81670682d682378e9d0b495080e46ba947985b7ee9e","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-17T23:52:34.765620Z","signature_b64":"BX6YNyT/iDGS/1zbWSWRzTiDI8FD81Jl+mkQWTqaCzUSjynb4A7nEn2DY/tIRf0bMhgsO9mo4haDqVX42BKhBQ==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"d1f8e0827d10708641fce81670682d682378e9d0b495080e46ba947985b7ee9e","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-17T23:52:34.765210Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-17T23:52:34.765210Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1902.10061","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-17T23:52:34Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"+6CTI9oFTIVT3lKBmpZQhXr9S+LpAoKgX4qPuitdLql/xSmALJKpHacuCJy2I5tGxGDwhVrAR3Z1lCDEmNpzAQ==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-04T02:30:40.902417Z"},"content_sha256":"59687cae014153a9e3f175911888fd28cccc6d60968dca431960a72212141ffd","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:59687cae014153a9e3f175911888fd28cccc6d60968dca431960a72212141ffd"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2019:2H4OBAT5CBYIMQP45ALHA2BNNA","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Supervised learning improves disease outbreak detection","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.LG","stat.ML"],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"Benedikt Zacher, Irina Czogiel","submitted_at":"2019-02-06T13:45:07Z","abstract_excerpt":"The early detection of infectious disease outbreaks is a crucial task to protect population health. To this end, public health surveillance systems have been established to systematically collect and analyse infectious disease data. A variety of statistical tools are available, which detect potential outbreaks as abberations from an expected endemic level using these data. Here, we develop the first supervised learning approach based on hidden Markov models for disease outbreak detection, which leverages data that is routinely collected within a public health surveillance system. We evaluate o"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1902.10061","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-17T23:52:34Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"6k8o01o0mf4hdS+kSuUacM556Wo288VKCji9SN8UPuYb2DpXIBa1fRFDHLOICh06wttf3LTQ9vKUf87CSI0pBQ==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-04T02:30:40.902771Z"},"content_sha256":"c29d9d769471acf4aee25117954aa8d835e07c3490a42d939eafd948f3fad503","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:c29d9d769471acf4aee25117954aa8d835e07c3490a42d939eafd948f3fad503"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/2H4OBAT5CBYIMQP45ALHA2BNNA/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/2H4OBAT5CBYIMQP45ALHA2BNNA/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/2H4OBAT5CBYIMQP45ALHA2BNNA/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-04T02:30:40Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/2H4OBAT5CBYIMQP45ALHA2BNNA","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/2H4OBAT5CBYIMQP45ALHA2BNNA/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/2H4OBAT5CBYIMQP45ALHA2BNNA/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/2H4OBAT5CBYIMQP45ALHA2BNNA/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2019:2H4OBAT5CBYIMQP45ALHA2BNNA","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"4108d565ad518db91afb2c1e167ccc8f5e246e872898f229ce472f1a36a3cd54","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG","stat.ML"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2019-02-06T13:45:07Z","title_canon_sha256":"11621c9b0c9c6053e2530ba6990f5cb3c89e3e508f4ff4f414884d610a9b6010"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1902.10061","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1902.10061","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:52:34Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1902.10061v1","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:52:34Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1902.10061","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:52:34Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"2H4OBAT5CBYI","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:07Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"2H4OBAT5CBYIMQP4","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:07Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"2H4OBAT5","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:07Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:c29d9d769471acf4aee25117954aa8d835e07c3490a42d939eafd948f3fad503","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:52:34Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"The early detection of infectious disease outbreaks is a crucial task to protect population health. To this end, public health surveillance systems have been established to systematically collect and analyse infectious disease data. A variety of statistical tools are available, which detect potential outbreaks as abberations from an expected endemic level using these data. Here, we develop the first supervised learning approach based on hidden Markov models for disease outbreak detection, which leverages data that is routinely collected within a public health surveillance system. We evaluate o","authors_text":"Benedikt Zacher, Irina Czogiel","cross_cats":["cs.LG","stat.ML"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2019-02-06T13:45:07Z","title":"Supervised learning improves disease outbreak detection"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1902.10061","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:59687cae014153a9e3f175911888fd28cccc6d60968dca431960a72212141ffd","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:52:34Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"4108d565ad518db91afb2c1e167ccc8f5e246e872898f229ce472f1a36a3cd54","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG","stat.ML"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2019-02-06T13:45:07Z","title_canon_sha256":"11621c9b0c9c6053e2530ba6990f5cb3c89e3e508f4ff4f414884d610a9b6010"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1902.10061","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"d1f8e0827d10708641fce81670682d682378e9d0b495080e46ba947985b7ee9e","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"d1f8e0827d10708641fce81670682d682378e9d0b495080e46ba947985b7ee9e","first_computed_at":"2026-05-17T23:52:34.765210Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-17T23:52:34.765210Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"BX6YNyT/iDGS/1zbWSWRzTiDI8FD81Jl+mkQWTqaCzUSjynb4A7nEn2DY/tIRf0bMhgsO9mo4haDqVX42BKhBQ==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-17T23:52:34.765620Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1902.10061","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:59687cae014153a9e3f175911888fd28cccc6d60968dca431960a72212141ffd","sha256:c29d9d769471acf4aee25117954aa8d835e07c3490a42d939eafd948f3fad503"],"state_sha256":"6b83b3db3bbf16c2705a48fff685573624544f7a67d5719d537792ebf5ef0002"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"ePi+3VJ9DxvWsgQwrZ1VxuqFFK1glevntNIOwf7q3bahpJThQKnNJLL2zfnwRwWEZtZYNjDQZStkzTvPDnDfAA==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-04T02:30:40.904930Z","bundle_sha256":"f4fb8da798e12867d5578c09669a61048024806dc50c3d0bc001a7c48c900153"}}