{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2022:2WYZMSGYQGNBZAP3ALOMZF3YGR","short_pith_number":"pith:2WYZMSGY","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2210.04482","kind":"arxiv","version":6},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.CO","submitted_at":"2022-10-10T08:13:49Z","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.AP","stat.ME"],"title_canon_sha256":"7704d940e57255f6c2ed5a95eeabe048434cc8653cbbd1619955bee42e22071e","abstract_canon_sha256":"c51a9616cc8232fed5a3c35f9f61d46fe942098c6b0a60850779735898d03b82"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"d5b19648d8819a1c81fb02dccc97783447223d605df19f5159d693193bf282e2","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"2210.04482","version":6},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2210.04482","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:30:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2210.04482v6","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:30:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2210.04482","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:30:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"2WYZMSGYQGNB","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:30:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"2WYZMSGYQGNBZAP3","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:30:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"2WYZMSGY","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:30:59Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2022:2WYZMSGYQGNBZAP3ALOMZF3YGR","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2210.04482","kind":"arxiv","version":6},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.CO","submitted_at":"2022-10-10T08:13:49Z","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.AP","stat.ME"],"title_canon_sha256":"7704d940e57255f6c2ed5a95eeabe048434cc8653cbbd1619955bee42e22071e","abstract_canon_sha256":"c51a9616cc8232fed5a3c35f9f61d46fe942098c6b0a60850779735898d03b82"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"d5b19648d8819a1c81fb02dccc97783447223d605df19f5159d693193bf282e2","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-07-05T11:30:59.923641Z","signature_b64":"J4oCDFuMPGvBqLt7pNEWpvVZFB1K17+uT4pbdNSllO73TykzrxpZ8b1sv1kJoaM2kmzHfFR13Amckno1Qod8CQ==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"d5b19648d8819a1c81fb02dccc97783447223d605df19f5159d693193bf282e2","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T11:30:59.922881Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T11:30:59.922881Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"2210.04482","source_version":6,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-05T11:30:59Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"p53C59bFhbltFwaOch91vTZ2twY73aTu5clcCpT/etix854Q0uKnzdzsskhiUHDPzG9Oy9UBi0ribpynB6zgCw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-04T13:40:04.621956Z"},"content_sha256":"d0539e87d36d1fcb0d90868c4145fcd5f76598c48e6dada7db44759aafce9597","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:d0539e87d36d1fcb0d90868c4145fcd5f76598c48e6dada7db44759aafce9597"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2022:2WYZMSGYQGNBZAP3ALOMZF3YGR","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Leave-group-out cross-validation for latent Gaussian models","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["stat.AP","stat.ME"],"primary_cat":"stat.CO","authors_text":"Haavard Rue, Janet Van Niekerk, Zhedong Liu","submitted_at":"2022-10-10T08:13:49Z","abstract_excerpt":"Evaluating the predictive performance of a statistical model is commonly done using cross-validation. Among the various methods, leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) is frequently used. Originally designed for exchangeable observations, LOOCV has since been extended to other cases such as hierarchical models. However, it focuses primarily on short-range prediction and may not fully capture long-range prediction scenarios. For structured hierarchical models, particularly those involving multiple random effects, the concepts of short- and long-range predictions become less clear, which can com"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2210.04482","kind":"arxiv","version":6},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2210.04482/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-05T11:30:59Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"p6k8+1dSlMcs9dOYA3CrLPf1zwDdczrSEI3jtJpdY5nn77v4t125zIrWV3mRtcJm+dHk02PEsGIKZJZWVwpbCA==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-04T13:40:04.622559Z"},"content_sha256":"069c48bce098aab31f420ca5f9c94c24dd242b3f19c9c1d5d83beed8f6b78b82","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:069c48bce098aab31f420ca5f9c94c24dd242b3f19c9c1d5d83beed8f6b78b82"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/2WYZMSGYQGNBZAP3ALOMZF3YGR/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/2WYZMSGYQGNBZAP3ALOMZF3YGR/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/2WYZMSGYQGNBZAP3ALOMZF3YGR/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-08-04T13:40:04Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/2WYZMSGYQGNBZAP3ALOMZF3YGR","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/2WYZMSGYQGNBZAP3ALOMZF3YGR/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/2WYZMSGYQGNBZAP3ALOMZF3YGR/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/2WYZMSGYQGNBZAP3ALOMZF3YGR/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2022:2WYZMSGYQGNBZAP3ALOMZF3YGR","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"c51a9616cc8232fed5a3c35f9f61d46fe942098c6b0a60850779735898d03b82","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.AP","stat.ME"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.CO","submitted_at":"2022-10-10T08:13:49Z","title_canon_sha256":"7704d940e57255f6c2ed5a95eeabe048434cc8653cbbd1619955bee42e22071e"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2210.04482","kind":"arxiv","version":6}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2210.04482","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:30:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2210.04482v6","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:30:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2210.04482","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:30:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"2WYZMSGYQGNB","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:30:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"2WYZMSGYQGNBZAP3","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:30:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"2WYZMSGY","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:30:59Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:069c48bce098aab31f420ca5f9c94c24dd242b3f19c9c1d5d83beed8f6b78b82","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:30:59Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2210.04482/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Evaluating the predictive performance of a statistical model is commonly done using cross-validation. Among the various methods, leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) is frequently used. Originally designed for exchangeable observations, LOOCV has since been extended to other cases such as hierarchical models. However, it focuses primarily on short-range prediction and may not fully capture long-range prediction scenarios. For structured hierarchical models, particularly those involving multiple random effects, the concepts of short- and long-range predictions become less clear, which can com","authors_text":"Haavard Rue, Janet Van Niekerk, Zhedong Liu","cross_cats":["stat.AP","stat.ME"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.CO","submitted_at":"2022-10-10T08:13:49Z","title":"Leave-group-out cross-validation for latent Gaussian models"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2210.04482","kind":"arxiv","version":6},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:d0539e87d36d1fcb0d90868c4145fcd5f76598c48e6dada7db44759aafce9597","target":"record","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:30:59Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"c51a9616cc8232fed5a3c35f9f61d46fe942098c6b0a60850779735898d03b82","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.AP","stat.ME"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.CO","submitted_at":"2022-10-10T08:13:49Z","title_canon_sha256":"7704d940e57255f6c2ed5a95eeabe048434cc8653cbbd1619955bee42e22071e"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2210.04482","kind":"arxiv","version":6}},"canonical_sha256":"d5b19648d8819a1c81fb02dccc97783447223d605df19f5159d693193bf282e2","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"d5b19648d8819a1c81fb02dccc97783447223d605df19f5159d693193bf282e2","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T11:30:59.922881Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T11:30:59.922881Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"J4oCDFuMPGvBqLt7pNEWpvVZFB1K17+uT4pbdNSllO73TykzrxpZ8b1sv1kJoaM2kmzHfFR13Amckno1Qod8CQ==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-07-05T11:30:59.923641Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2210.04482","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":6}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:d0539e87d36d1fcb0d90868c4145fcd5f76598c48e6dada7db44759aafce9597","sha256:069c48bce098aab31f420ca5f9c94c24dd242b3f19c9c1d5d83beed8f6b78b82"],"state_sha256":"01b95dde197b79a8f2cc75219420830dbbd51b4365c8988d3cb0c26d3308499f"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"Y22+51K+WtkEEYWMAK85DoogS+zMvf8tzu9y3EGZHX4hH+BMT7pN9o4i69tMlkrBDqOtNlSFuAbBi1Z5kaXEBQ==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-04T13:40:04.627499Z","bundle_sha256":"2df1b41715f114b176246f9ad15e5fb2f00825054dd3448bdecaffb8630c4a98"}}