{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2013:3LB2SKBNP476CTYEBIS6KIKQSH","short_pith_number":"pith:3LB2SKBN","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1304.1102","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"cs.AI","submitted_at":"2013-03-27T13:56:28Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"e6ee5d23512996bd973a9f712c4f329809ba4b1fb7af609273c1afe6a7609c2a","abstract_canon_sha256":"1b30ceaffaefe49e554026670834667f17fd8c0fe9da16d7e6ac1ac3ed244ccf"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"dac3a9282d7f3fe14f040a25e5215091ffb501c977c43ae1fcb7d79f563f9cfe","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1304.1102","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1304.1102","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:29:04Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1304.1102v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:29:04Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1304.1102","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:29:04Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"3LB2SKBNP476","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"3LB2SKBNP476CTYE","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"3LB2SKBN","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:32Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2013:3LB2SKBNP476CTYEBIS6KIKQSH","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1304.1102","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"cs.AI","submitted_at":"2013-03-27T13:56:28Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"e6ee5d23512996bd973a9f712c4f329809ba4b1fb7af609273c1afe6a7609c2a","abstract_canon_sha256":"1b30ceaffaefe49e554026670834667f17fd8c0fe9da16d7e6ac1ac3ed244ccf"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"dac3a9282d7f3fe14f040a25e5215091ffb501c977c43ae1fcb7d79f563f9cfe","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T03:29:04.761688Z","signature_b64":"3BxlNPBEdorD+5s9FsJFuUreAJ25eUtQqNXEsV9KYKhQW42QwQT78l3J/vflOgQNGU2Gjf44C/tGtrm0+2yqBg==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"dac3a9282d7f3fe14f040a25e5215091ffb501c977c43ae1fcb7d79f563f9cfe","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T03:29:04.760769Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T03:29:04.760769Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1304.1102","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T03:29:04Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"O9VIFSD7sN7DYUXhLtoQUTXlU+G0tJJktYKBYHuw2+sIlDr1lmYLCJii3nx+R1t27nIDqqMSjQQTD876IgMeAg==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-05T15:45:19.426962Z"},"content_sha256":"a5cfa259c397596f912f5d673c0f362e6294b7ecf1d99f8a18c808ebed7c408c","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:a5cfa259c397596f912f5d673c0f362e6294b7ecf1d99f8a18c808ebed7c408c"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2013:3LB2SKBNP476CTYEBIS6KIKQSH","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Robust Inference Policies","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"cs.AI","authors_text":"Paul E. Lehner","submitted_at":"2013-03-27T13:56:28Z","abstract_excerpt":"A series of monte carlo studies were performed to assess the extent to which different inference procedures robustly output reasonable belief values in the context of increasing levels of judgmental imprecision. It was found that, when compared to an equal-weights linear model, the Bayesian procedures are more likely to deduce strong support for a hypothesis. But, the Bayesian procedures are also more likely to strongly support the wrong hypothesis. Bayesian techniques are more powerful, but are also more error prone."},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1304.1102","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T03:29:04Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"A4PJj3j/clMVrFdV5jeOZypSwbHVulpxFH6Bm5HSffZY7Eabx4xj5FDdJhdvRLXcwnuiRDEVXV/N3jIysaQNBw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-05T15:45:19.427322Z"},"content_sha256":"136db25aeec12c6e96ab000e4de1c4137d617b29d80dc2d9e186480e986d98f0","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:136db25aeec12c6e96ab000e4de1c4137d617b29d80dc2d9e186480e986d98f0"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/3LB2SKBNP476CTYEBIS6KIKQSH/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/3LB2SKBNP476CTYEBIS6KIKQSH/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/3LB2SKBNP476CTYEBIS6KIKQSH/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-05T15:45:19Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/3LB2SKBNP476CTYEBIS6KIKQSH","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/3LB2SKBNP476CTYEBIS6KIKQSH/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/3LB2SKBNP476CTYEBIS6KIKQSH/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/3LB2SKBNP476CTYEBIS6KIKQSH/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2013:3LB2SKBNP476CTYEBIS6KIKQSH","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"1b30ceaffaefe49e554026670834667f17fd8c0fe9da16d7e6ac1ac3ed244ccf","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"cs.AI","submitted_at":"2013-03-27T13:56:28Z","title_canon_sha256":"e6ee5d23512996bd973a9f712c4f329809ba4b1fb7af609273c1afe6a7609c2a"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1304.1102","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1304.1102","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:29:04Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1304.1102v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:29:04Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1304.1102","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:29:04Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"3LB2SKBNP476","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"3LB2SKBNP476CTYE","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"3LB2SKBN","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:32Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:136db25aeec12c6e96ab000e4de1c4137d617b29d80dc2d9e186480e986d98f0","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:29:04Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"A series of monte carlo studies were performed to assess the extent to which different inference procedures robustly output reasonable belief values in the context of increasing levels of judgmental imprecision. It was found that, when compared to an equal-weights linear model, the Bayesian procedures are more likely to deduce strong support for a hypothesis. But, the Bayesian procedures are also more likely to strongly support the wrong hypothesis. Bayesian techniques are more powerful, but are also more error prone.","authors_text":"Paul E. Lehner","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"cs.AI","submitted_at":"2013-03-27T13:56:28Z","title":"Robust Inference Policies"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1304.1102","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:a5cfa259c397596f912f5d673c0f362e6294b7ecf1d99f8a18c808ebed7c408c","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:29:04Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"1b30ceaffaefe49e554026670834667f17fd8c0fe9da16d7e6ac1ac3ed244ccf","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"cs.AI","submitted_at":"2013-03-27T13:56:28Z","title_canon_sha256":"e6ee5d23512996bd973a9f712c4f329809ba4b1fb7af609273c1afe6a7609c2a"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1304.1102","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"dac3a9282d7f3fe14f040a25e5215091ffb501c977c43ae1fcb7d79f563f9cfe","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"dac3a9282d7f3fe14f040a25e5215091ffb501c977c43ae1fcb7d79f563f9cfe","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T03:29:04.760769Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T03:29:04.760769Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"3BxlNPBEdorD+5s9FsJFuUreAJ25eUtQqNXEsV9KYKhQW42QwQT78l3J/vflOgQNGU2Gjf44C/tGtrm0+2yqBg==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T03:29:04.761688Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1304.1102","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:a5cfa259c397596f912f5d673c0f362e6294b7ecf1d99f8a18c808ebed7c408c","sha256:136db25aeec12c6e96ab000e4de1c4137d617b29d80dc2d9e186480e986d98f0"],"state_sha256":"fbe910ec15d28c997b22aded691d78cec72fb1ccc8e08dd3dc37e3b79eecc7d0"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"ja54Bd7dDnkmNNA5NMhG8nmfJp0iH98KmLlVcQmtrH0kKgYg3wHPgyfvJJ0heqxu43u5ttnXrtcaNz6KiQFRBA==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-05T15:45:19.429231Z","bundle_sha256":"ad5848355b01d4d1d9266ec7f39b5a39158c1e0b62d6a99008ecf707b16bcebf"}}