{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2011:426KQW76EK2DJJP4Y2RXSI37IK","short_pith_number":"pith:426KQW76","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1104.3448","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.data-an","submitted_at":"2011-04-18T12:18:01Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"edc8a3c8ae2f65f232384105f1fad85e1b8d401eccb10e324cc7cc2e5045d35e","abstract_canon_sha256":"501227823800a6b8e7c90a9a66946583a4d9e258acde72a497a886ddc94ebb31"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"e6bca85bfe22b434a5fcc6a379237f4291fa5dfa319e57254ab5ab4b34eb7b0a","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1104.3448","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1104.3448","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:02:23Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1104.3448v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:02:23Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1104.3448","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:02:23Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"426KQW76EK2D","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:20Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"426KQW76EK2DJJP4","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:20Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"426KQW76","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:20Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2011:426KQW76EK2DJJP4Y2RXSI37IK","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1104.3448","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.data-an","submitted_at":"2011-04-18T12:18:01Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"edc8a3c8ae2f65f232384105f1fad85e1b8d401eccb10e324cc7cc2e5045d35e","abstract_canon_sha256":"501227823800a6b8e7c90a9a66946583a4d9e258acde72a497a886ddc94ebb31"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"e6bca85bfe22b434a5fcc6a379237f4291fa5dfa319e57254ab5ab4b34eb7b0a","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T02:02:23.655305Z","signature_b64":"cdhjtxolAyJGZ3RKkWRP32gLBBrNxotUGORIvHY0RxV7pP778nGI/r3cdrFoZQ0TvrEKEY53zy8xQo8G96iZDw==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"e6bca85bfe22b434a5fcc6a379237f4291fa5dfa319e57254ab5ab4b34eb7b0a","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T02:02:23.654617Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T02:02:23.654617Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1104.3448","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T02:02:23Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"BfDAnHM0dVSF06N4ukSMJpDCLrOfiibmVM3eMf5s35jYnjfrFey2dIPb1HE0g6yjpuqIo24AWayiD5Ja+ufTAw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-25T13:51:25.069046Z"},"content_sha256":"4cb87d028e5ed04b21c2dc1bc616143e458d09675070e44bf491bce6c4fa6461","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:4cb87d028e5ed04b21c2dc1bc616143e458d09675070e44bf491bce6c4fa6461"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2011:426KQW76EK2DJJP4Y2RXSI37IK","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Detection of trend changes in time series using Bayesian inference","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"physics.data-an","authors_text":"Matthias Holschneider, Nadine Sch\\\"utz","submitted_at":"2011-04-18T12:18:01Z","abstract_excerpt":"Change points in time series are perceived as isolated singularities where two regular trends of a given signal do not match. The detection of such transitions is of fundamental interest for the understanding of the system's internal dynamics. In practice observational noise makes it difficult to detect such change points in time series. In this work we elaborate a Bayesian method to estimate the location of the singularities and to produce some confidence intervals. We validate the ability and sensitivity of our inference method by estimating change points of synthetic data sets. As an applic"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1104.3448","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T02:02:23Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"fFiHUNxF08NRtYhhSp+3PHe3mZaAJu67wyWRQpH+lAItjfa+A6MCQyCdgeT8mIYsZc8wg8+6NET7EjH1Mdc0Cw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-25T13:51:25.069410Z"},"content_sha256":"e1d405db3d00358a936e47c64dbe3baa12d13394016e00c2663d14e369fbec2e","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:e1d405db3d00358a936e47c64dbe3baa12d13394016e00c2663d14e369fbec2e"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/426KQW76EK2DJJP4Y2RXSI37IK/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/426KQW76EK2DJJP4Y2RXSI37IK/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/426KQW76EK2DJJP4Y2RXSI37IK/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-25T13:51:25Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/426KQW76EK2DJJP4Y2RXSI37IK","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/426KQW76EK2DJJP4Y2RXSI37IK/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/426KQW76EK2DJJP4Y2RXSI37IK/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/426KQW76EK2DJJP4Y2RXSI37IK/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2011:426KQW76EK2DJJP4Y2RXSI37IK","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"501227823800a6b8e7c90a9a66946583a4d9e258acde72a497a886ddc94ebb31","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.data-an","submitted_at":"2011-04-18T12:18:01Z","title_canon_sha256":"edc8a3c8ae2f65f232384105f1fad85e1b8d401eccb10e324cc7cc2e5045d35e"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1104.3448","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1104.3448","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:02:23Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1104.3448v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:02:23Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1104.3448","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:02:23Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"426KQW76EK2D","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:20Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"426KQW76EK2DJJP4","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:20Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"426KQW76","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:20Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:e1d405db3d00358a936e47c64dbe3baa12d13394016e00c2663d14e369fbec2e","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:02:23Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Change points in time series are perceived as isolated singularities where two regular trends of a given signal do not match. The detection of such transitions is of fundamental interest for the understanding of the system's internal dynamics. In practice observational noise makes it difficult to detect such change points in time series. In this work we elaborate a Bayesian method to estimate the location of the singularities and to produce some confidence intervals. We validate the ability and sensitivity of our inference method by estimating change points of synthetic data sets. As an applic","authors_text":"Matthias Holschneider, Nadine Sch\\\"utz","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.data-an","submitted_at":"2011-04-18T12:18:01Z","title":"Detection of trend changes in time series using Bayesian inference"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1104.3448","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:4cb87d028e5ed04b21c2dc1bc616143e458d09675070e44bf491bce6c4fa6461","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:02:23Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"501227823800a6b8e7c90a9a66946583a4d9e258acde72a497a886ddc94ebb31","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.data-an","submitted_at":"2011-04-18T12:18:01Z","title_canon_sha256":"edc8a3c8ae2f65f232384105f1fad85e1b8d401eccb10e324cc7cc2e5045d35e"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1104.3448","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"e6bca85bfe22b434a5fcc6a379237f4291fa5dfa319e57254ab5ab4b34eb7b0a","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"e6bca85bfe22b434a5fcc6a379237f4291fa5dfa319e57254ab5ab4b34eb7b0a","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T02:02:23.654617Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T02:02:23.654617Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"cdhjtxolAyJGZ3RKkWRP32gLBBrNxotUGORIvHY0RxV7pP778nGI/r3cdrFoZQ0TvrEKEY53zy8xQo8G96iZDw==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T02:02:23.655305Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1104.3448","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:4cb87d028e5ed04b21c2dc1bc616143e458d09675070e44bf491bce6c4fa6461","sha256:e1d405db3d00358a936e47c64dbe3baa12d13394016e00c2663d14e369fbec2e"],"state_sha256":"f5e5fe2e4ae715651ec2563b829e6f38d851155cd65d047ab3fb0218e2b2064d"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"pBMW/iVZ7mXKmN1WhDWXEiVSeUTSCrRYf761kGKOs8OmWhY8W1iznf3oC/hc1vfkq7oKcSGiQmFdT1MRQxftAw==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-25T13:51:25.071638Z","bundle_sha256":"90667c835961607a8653708c13e4edce1e0116e10e345e2649cd2c5141bdd76a"}}