{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2019:4KXLBMU3PHPK33FTWPD3B5QBZV","short_pith_number":"pith:4KXLBMU3","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1903.07079","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.geo-ph","submitted_at":"2019-03-17T13:00:25Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"fa3cd01a0e0f9e9a19b4f232e09abad86153f02cacbe9669804478046c192572","abstract_canon_sha256":"b8e949eb7e65f1515c439acdc292177a6320cd54a5801d126be407706298a3e1"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"e2aeb0b29b79deadecb3b3c7b0f601cd73799df042eed30848947cdeb01d3b5a","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1903.07079","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1903.07079","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:51:04Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1903.07079v1","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:51:04Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1903.07079","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:51:04Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"4KXLBMU3PHPK","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:10Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"4KXLBMU3PHPK33FT","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:10Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"4KXLBMU3","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:10Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2019:4KXLBMU3PHPK33FTWPD3B5QBZV","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1903.07079","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.geo-ph","submitted_at":"2019-03-17T13:00:25Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"fa3cd01a0e0f9e9a19b4f232e09abad86153f02cacbe9669804478046c192572","abstract_canon_sha256":"b8e949eb7e65f1515c439acdc292177a6320cd54a5801d126be407706298a3e1"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"e2aeb0b29b79deadecb3b3c7b0f601cd73799df042eed30848947cdeb01d3b5a","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-17T23:51:04.315934Z","signature_b64":"rCZqxY3vqoPkgEGeaXMAJwNrTGwWxEQEVxtOzXqaEEZxtOSxFZdFrZkE0IUl85D8d3L+5KhdbpdEPPKcWWbXDg==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"e2aeb0b29b79deadecb3b3c7b0f601cd73799df042eed30848947cdeb01d3b5a","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-17T23:51:04.315250Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-17T23:51:04.315250Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1903.07079","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-17T23:51:04Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"fPcKJn1JlslH/7fj4/5V0b7p6ZKrdn7ZL2u2S59tPDiyY48wfeSffHqGiczjLyAnmWBju5o7DkeCAFtlel73Aw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-06T17:16:49.818683Z"},"content_sha256":"b800ad288fe03d40816ea00dd04c04bfc57bb89aed54b850a0522ba713ffe6e4","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:b800ad288fe03d40816ea00dd04c04bfc57bb89aed54b850a0522ba713ffe6e4"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2019:4KXLBMU3PHPK33FTWPD3B5QBZV","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Forecasting the full distribution of earthquake numbers is fair, robust and better","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"physics.geo-ph","authors_text":"Didier Sornette, Guy Ouillon, Shyam Nandan, Stefan Wiemer","submitted_at":"2019-03-17T13:00:25Z","abstract_excerpt":"Forecasting the full distribution of the number of earthquakes is revealed to be inherently superior to forecasting their mean. Forecasting the full distribution of earthquake numbers is also shown to yield robust projections in the presence of \"surprise\" large earthquakes, which in the past have strongly deteriorated the scores of existing models. We show this with pseudo-prospective experiments on synthetic as well as real data from the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) database for California, with earthquakes with magnitude larger than 2.95 that occurred between the period 1971-2016."},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1903.07079","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-17T23:51:04Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"dvBpBywdmS3XR97nifL4tN7XDNP408DH6AOUrYc1Z48qG4Q+eZki2F4z1wV3e163Gt3UPR5pb4B2zCJb9ZJEBQ==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-06T17:16:49.819016Z"},"content_sha256":"fbd5f7130f46b68e354e9cbed2f5a5443d2f9045c8b7592af723b2c064f256e6","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:fbd5f7130f46b68e354e9cbed2f5a5443d2f9045c8b7592af723b2c064f256e6"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/4KXLBMU3PHPK33FTWPD3B5QBZV/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/4KXLBMU3PHPK33FTWPD3B5QBZV/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/4KXLBMU3PHPK33FTWPD3B5QBZV/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-06T17:16:49Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/4KXLBMU3PHPK33FTWPD3B5QBZV","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/4KXLBMU3PHPK33FTWPD3B5QBZV/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/4KXLBMU3PHPK33FTWPD3B5QBZV/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/4KXLBMU3PHPK33FTWPD3B5QBZV/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2019:4KXLBMU3PHPK33FTWPD3B5QBZV","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"b8e949eb7e65f1515c439acdc292177a6320cd54a5801d126be407706298a3e1","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.geo-ph","submitted_at":"2019-03-17T13:00:25Z","title_canon_sha256":"fa3cd01a0e0f9e9a19b4f232e09abad86153f02cacbe9669804478046c192572"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1903.07079","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1903.07079","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:51:04Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1903.07079v1","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:51:04Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1903.07079","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:51:04Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"4KXLBMU3PHPK","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:10Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"4KXLBMU3PHPK33FT","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:10Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"4KXLBMU3","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:10Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:fbd5f7130f46b68e354e9cbed2f5a5443d2f9045c8b7592af723b2c064f256e6","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:51:04Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Forecasting the full distribution of the number of earthquakes is revealed to be inherently superior to forecasting their mean. Forecasting the full distribution of earthquake numbers is also shown to yield robust projections in the presence of \"surprise\" large earthquakes, which in the past have strongly deteriorated the scores of existing models. We show this with pseudo-prospective experiments on synthetic as well as real data from the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) database for California, with earthquakes with magnitude larger than 2.95 that occurred between the period 1971-2016.","authors_text":"Didier Sornette, Guy Ouillon, Shyam Nandan, Stefan Wiemer","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.geo-ph","submitted_at":"2019-03-17T13:00:25Z","title":"Forecasting the full distribution of earthquake numbers is fair, robust and better"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1903.07079","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:b800ad288fe03d40816ea00dd04c04bfc57bb89aed54b850a0522ba713ffe6e4","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:51:04Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"b8e949eb7e65f1515c439acdc292177a6320cd54a5801d126be407706298a3e1","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.geo-ph","submitted_at":"2019-03-17T13:00:25Z","title_canon_sha256":"fa3cd01a0e0f9e9a19b4f232e09abad86153f02cacbe9669804478046c192572"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1903.07079","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"e2aeb0b29b79deadecb3b3c7b0f601cd73799df042eed30848947cdeb01d3b5a","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"e2aeb0b29b79deadecb3b3c7b0f601cd73799df042eed30848947cdeb01d3b5a","first_computed_at":"2026-05-17T23:51:04.315250Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-17T23:51:04.315250Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"rCZqxY3vqoPkgEGeaXMAJwNrTGwWxEQEVxtOzXqaEEZxtOSxFZdFrZkE0IUl85D8d3L+5KhdbpdEPPKcWWbXDg==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-17T23:51:04.315934Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1903.07079","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:b800ad288fe03d40816ea00dd04c04bfc57bb89aed54b850a0522ba713ffe6e4","sha256:fbd5f7130f46b68e354e9cbed2f5a5443d2f9045c8b7592af723b2c064f256e6"],"state_sha256":"52ed9a8674d564206031ba66cc75911da7965244bf43c9eeaf826ff9cf792f75"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"3UdXNIWksA1va4Y41QvDtbqWaS31SjEKvxqLZhNluc+f61lj8OEKnk3jA70hsz7rqHGFl7tpphKnGsmxaCbvDA==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-06T17:16:49.820877Z","bundle_sha256":"327b3dce7049e982816d665b1f3242e2d76a0d99be4db1a28617185471e7aa00"}}