{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2025:4PLZ2FPOJKJ7J5VZCFKX3LLXDS","short_pith_number":"pith:4PLZ2FPO","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2506.06828","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2025-06-07T15:16:28Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG","stat.AP"],"title_canon_sha256":"b081b9db11518251148b9ee3192d8ecfb03cb9163eb777604756c9820176322c","abstract_canon_sha256":"203dbac64a0cbcc3e7f8b7ff6590d89f06f0b43f59d7b5fe9be2bbf810db78c7"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"e3d79d15ee4a93f4f6b911557dad771cb1ff88afc2575a8c8147d811097feb33","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"2506.06828","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2506.06828","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:17:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2506.06828v1","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:17:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2506.06828","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:17:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"4PLZ2FPOJKJ7","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:17:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"4PLZ2FPOJKJ7J5VZ","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:17:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"4PLZ2FPO","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:17:56Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2025:4PLZ2FPOJKJ7J5VZCFKX3LLXDS","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2506.06828","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2025-06-07T15:16:28Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG","stat.AP"],"title_canon_sha256":"b081b9db11518251148b9ee3192d8ecfb03cb9163eb777604756c9820176322c","abstract_canon_sha256":"203dbac64a0cbcc3e7f8b7ff6590d89f06f0b43f59d7b5fe9be2bbf810db78c7"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"e3d79d15ee4a93f4f6b911557dad771cb1ff88afc2575a8c8147d811097feb33","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-07-05T11:17:56.476880Z","signature_b64":"PkVJya4Hr6GdolvdXkKQdgT/SiP4og4NpxSrAJ0wQoownEVhAATyHJ9YTR3V0JxTtyO7EP+CavF87XemMireBw==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"e3d79d15ee4a93f4f6b911557dad771cb1ff88afc2575a8c8147d811097feb33","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T11:17:56.476477Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T11:17:56.476477Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"2506.06828","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-05T11:17:56Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"6gbFfqu9wHVH9nLsLzUil3ya+JeKEVysrBBVajTeN/8sIwi043Ew4Nar77v2mRYvHXo9HVHowdzHMRb8cc/uBg==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-08T01:01:45.034992Z"},"content_sha256":"429d770cf9a196b770d0bfcf558d85aefd02fd19cd94e5391d8a36d5e0a576c4","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:429d770cf9a196b770d0bfcf558d85aefd02fd19cd94e5391d8a36d5e0a576c4"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2025:4PLZ2FPOJKJ7J5VZCFKX3LLXDS","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"The Currents of Conflict: Decomposing Conflict Trends with Gaussian Processes","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.LG","stat.AP"],"primary_cat":"stat.ML","authors_text":"Simon P. von der Maase","submitted_at":"2025-06-07T15:16:28Z","abstract_excerpt":"I present a novel approach to estimating the temporal and spatial patterns of violent conflict. I show how we can use highly temporally and spatially disaggregated data on conflict events in tandem with Gaussian processes to estimate temporospatial conflict trends. These trends can be studied to gain insight into conflict traps, diffusion and tempo-spatial conflict exposure in general; they can also be used to control for such phenomenons given other estimation tasks; lastly, the approach allow us to extrapolate the estimated tempo-spatial conflict patterns into future temporal units, thus fac"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2506.06828","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2506.06828/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-05T11:17:56Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"1nuO3DuTndCt3uO1By4gqXtYpEth4V0AllDZlRsAvjTDoNYEb9H/QM45zC6K46qp2s7xzojgwRn2mW+a6gALDg==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-08T01:01:45.035547Z"},"content_sha256":"da129974def6cbe3cbb78e6bb8d335bdf1191d0ce93c99cd9ddd80f7e168e5d3","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:da129974def6cbe3cbb78e6bb8d335bdf1191d0ce93c99cd9ddd80f7e168e5d3"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/4PLZ2FPOJKJ7J5VZCFKX3LLXDS/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/4PLZ2FPOJKJ7J5VZCFKX3LLXDS/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/4PLZ2FPOJKJ7J5VZCFKX3LLXDS/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-08-08T01:01:45Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/4PLZ2FPOJKJ7J5VZCFKX3LLXDS","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/4PLZ2FPOJKJ7J5VZCFKX3LLXDS/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/4PLZ2FPOJKJ7J5VZCFKX3LLXDS/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/4PLZ2FPOJKJ7J5VZCFKX3LLXDS/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2025:4PLZ2FPOJKJ7J5VZCFKX3LLXDS","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"203dbac64a0cbcc3e7f8b7ff6590d89f06f0b43f59d7b5fe9be2bbf810db78c7","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG","stat.AP"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2025-06-07T15:16:28Z","title_canon_sha256":"b081b9db11518251148b9ee3192d8ecfb03cb9163eb777604756c9820176322c"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2506.06828","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2506.06828","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:17:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2506.06828v1","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:17:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2506.06828","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:17:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"4PLZ2FPOJKJ7","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:17:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"4PLZ2FPOJKJ7J5VZ","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:17:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"4PLZ2FPO","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:17:56Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:da129974def6cbe3cbb78e6bb8d335bdf1191d0ce93c99cd9ddd80f7e168e5d3","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:17:56Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2506.06828/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"I present a novel approach to estimating the temporal and spatial patterns of violent conflict. I show how we can use highly temporally and spatially disaggregated data on conflict events in tandem with Gaussian processes to estimate temporospatial conflict trends. These trends can be studied to gain insight into conflict traps, diffusion and tempo-spatial conflict exposure in general; they can also be used to control for such phenomenons given other estimation tasks; lastly, the approach allow us to extrapolate the estimated tempo-spatial conflict patterns into future temporal units, thus fac","authors_text":"Simon P. von der Maase","cross_cats":["cs.LG","stat.AP"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2025-06-07T15:16:28Z","title":"The Currents of Conflict: Decomposing Conflict Trends with Gaussian Processes"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2506.06828","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:429d770cf9a196b770d0bfcf558d85aefd02fd19cd94e5391d8a36d5e0a576c4","target":"record","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:17:56Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"203dbac64a0cbcc3e7f8b7ff6590d89f06f0b43f59d7b5fe9be2bbf810db78c7","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG","stat.AP"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2025-06-07T15:16:28Z","title_canon_sha256":"b081b9db11518251148b9ee3192d8ecfb03cb9163eb777604756c9820176322c"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2506.06828","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"e3d79d15ee4a93f4f6b911557dad771cb1ff88afc2575a8c8147d811097feb33","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"e3d79d15ee4a93f4f6b911557dad771cb1ff88afc2575a8c8147d811097feb33","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T11:17:56.476477Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T11:17:56.476477Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"PkVJya4Hr6GdolvdXkKQdgT/SiP4og4NpxSrAJ0wQoownEVhAATyHJ9YTR3V0JxTtyO7EP+CavF87XemMireBw==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-07-05T11:17:56.476880Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2506.06828","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:429d770cf9a196b770d0bfcf558d85aefd02fd19cd94e5391d8a36d5e0a576c4","sha256:da129974def6cbe3cbb78e6bb8d335bdf1191d0ce93c99cd9ddd80f7e168e5d3"],"state_sha256":"206fea1011614221937d5fc9145091271a08b031136e4048cad7d90f971d17b5"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"n5eqK7fOaOh23Ui5kPy7HlatsnNjkVgT4o4fqLbopZiUN0WOoovviQlhjc5QB9S6t7MQMeIfiNxW7uEl5FpVDw==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-08T01:01:45.039742Z","bundle_sha256":"59fbfca4cc25207c8a8e092e1476920bf30dfa9f595561db5df8ba6c70a80f60"}}