{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2019:4Z4XVFLXF26KYB24XZFWXVJ6QO","short_pith_number":"pith:4Z4XVFLX","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1908.02891","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2019-08-08T00:52:55Z","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.AP","stat.CO"],"title_canon_sha256":"7a31a305a56d4fd9946fb1183fae71c43ea3e5ab8e255826a6fd0f198e5195bb","abstract_canon_sha256":"3299f303ed0fb2755c6b49b0843147785c08d359de74613a0ed74504fd9b84f6"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"e6797a95772ebcac075cbe4b6bd53e83998b757b781c5c40c28db9367558ee73","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1908.02891","version":3},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1908.02891","created_at":"2026-07-05T01:51:58Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1908.02891v3","created_at":"2026-07-05T01:51:58Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1908.02891","created_at":"2026-07-05T01:51:58Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"4Z4XVFLXF26K","created_at":"2026-07-05T01:51:58Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"4Z4XVFLXF26KYB24","created_at":"2026-07-05T01:51:58Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"4Z4XVFLX","created_at":"2026-07-05T01:51:58Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2019:4Z4XVFLXF26KYB24XZFWXVJ6QO","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1908.02891","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2019-08-08T00:52:55Z","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.AP","stat.CO"],"title_canon_sha256":"7a31a305a56d4fd9946fb1183fae71c43ea3e5ab8e255826a6fd0f198e5195bb","abstract_canon_sha256":"3299f303ed0fb2755c6b49b0843147785c08d359de74613a0ed74504fd9b84f6"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"e6797a95772ebcac075cbe4b6bd53e83998b757b781c5c40c28db9367558ee73","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-07-05T01:51:58.989795Z","signature_b64":"vv8/cARGq1jD9zUdNz50bDk7r8mmUFyTZtfHCADqOyY0mcrp4Uzmv3lIsWp7F0jOToKcA6UEogpQAmn5OfmEAA==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"e6797a95772ebcac075cbe4b6bd53e83998b757b781c5c40c28db9367558ee73","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T01:51:58.989372Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T01:51:58.989372Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1908.02891","source_version":3,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-05T01:51:58Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"nzJb6TQEmRfF3vIHuz9i+lYW/quTg6v9A72+C7XWO8AWrQCl43Gz/bmujLZN//2BOvy5/JTP1I+5OKEKZ5AICg==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-19T02:28:40.270956Z"},"content_sha256":"2abbdea1778570b2f5c37f8c74981bfd7e7208243393cfbb149dd98208d3b035","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:2abbdea1778570b2f5c37f8c74981bfd7e7208243393cfbb149dd98208d3b035"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2019:4Z4XVFLXF26KYB24XZFWXVJ6QO","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"The uncertainty estimation of feature-based forecast combinations","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["stat.AP","stat.CO"],"primary_cat":"stat.ME","authors_text":"Feng Li, Fotios Petropoulos, Xiaoqian Wang, Yanfei Kang","submitted_at":"2019-08-08T00:52:55Z","abstract_excerpt":"Forecasting is an indispensable element of operational research (OR) and an important aid to planning. The accurate estimation of the forecast uncertainty facilitates several operations management activities, predominantly in supporting decisions in inventory and supply chain management and effectively setting safety stocks. In this paper, we introduce a feature-based framework, which links the relationship between time series features and the interval forecasting performance into providing reliable interval forecasts. We propose an optimal threshold ratio searching algorithm and a new weight "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1908.02891","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/1908.02891/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-05T01:51:58Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"Amr0oNtsQ5IXqS86mssG6eNH/bH1Vm98IAjsTsgx7xv3OzL99jRZhKg6Npcw/VX5gwckK38nAxWGTUTc22shBw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-19T02:28:40.271908Z"},"content_sha256":"d6ae573edb7c310b0cd115d11188f10b14c55ceedc56f3b3313fdeab492bc3fb","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:d6ae573edb7c310b0cd115d11188f10b14c55ceedc56f3b3313fdeab492bc3fb"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/4Z4XVFLXF26KYB24XZFWXVJ6QO/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/4Z4XVFLXF26KYB24XZFWXVJ6QO/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/4Z4XVFLXF26KYB24XZFWXVJ6QO/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-08-19T02:28:40Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/4Z4XVFLXF26KYB24XZFWXVJ6QO","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/4Z4XVFLXF26KYB24XZFWXVJ6QO/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/4Z4XVFLXF26KYB24XZFWXVJ6QO/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/4Z4XVFLXF26KYB24XZFWXVJ6QO/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2019:4Z4XVFLXF26KYB24XZFWXVJ6QO","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"3299f303ed0fb2755c6b49b0843147785c08d359de74613a0ed74504fd9b84f6","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.AP","stat.CO"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2019-08-08T00:52:55Z","title_canon_sha256":"7a31a305a56d4fd9946fb1183fae71c43ea3e5ab8e255826a6fd0f198e5195bb"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1908.02891","kind":"arxiv","version":3}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1908.02891","created_at":"2026-07-05T01:51:58Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1908.02891v3","created_at":"2026-07-05T01:51:58Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1908.02891","created_at":"2026-07-05T01:51:58Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"4Z4XVFLXF26K","created_at":"2026-07-05T01:51:58Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"4Z4XVFLXF26KYB24","created_at":"2026-07-05T01:51:58Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"4Z4XVFLX","created_at":"2026-07-05T01:51:58Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:d6ae573edb7c310b0cd115d11188f10b14c55ceedc56f3b3313fdeab492bc3fb","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-07-05T01:51:58Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/1908.02891/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Forecasting is an indispensable element of operational research (OR) and an important aid to planning. The accurate estimation of the forecast uncertainty facilitates several operations management activities, predominantly in supporting decisions in inventory and supply chain management and effectively setting safety stocks. In this paper, we introduce a feature-based framework, which links the relationship between time series features and the interval forecasting performance into providing reliable interval forecasts. We propose an optimal threshold ratio searching algorithm and a new weight ","authors_text":"Feng Li, Fotios Petropoulos, Xiaoqian Wang, Yanfei Kang","cross_cats":["stat.AP","stat.CO"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2019-08-08T00:52:55Z","title":"The uncertainty estimation of feature-based forecast combinations"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1908.02891","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:2abbdea1778570b2f5c37f8c74981bfd7e7208243393cfbb149dd98208d3b035","target":"record","created_at":"2026-07-05T01:51:58Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"3299f303ed0fb2755c6b49b0843147785c08d359de74613a0ed74504fd9b84f6","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.AP","stat.CO"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2019-08-08T00:52:55Z","title_canon_sha256":"7a31a305a56d4fd9946fb1183fae71c43ea3e5ab8e255826a6fd0f198e5195bb"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1908.02891","kind":"arxiv","version":3}},"canonical_sha256":"e6797a95772ebcac075cbe4b6bd53e83998b757b781c5c40c28db9367558ee73","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"e6797a95772ebcac075cbe4b6bd53e83998b757b781c5c40c28db9367558ee73","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T01:51:58.989372Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T01:51:58.989372Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"vv8/cARGq1jD9zUdNz50bDk7r8mmUFyTZtfHCADqOyY0mcrp4Uzmv3lIsWp7F0jOToKcA6UEogpQAmn5OfmEAA==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-07-05T01:51:58.989795Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1908.02891","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":3}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:2abbdea1778570b2f5c37f8c74981bfd7e7208243393cfbb149dd98208d3b035","sha256:d6ae573edb7c310b0cd115d11188f10b14c55ceedc56f3b3313fdeab492bc3fb"],"state_sha256":"1aa5c311a86e05da1d4e0aff600e9d91583e0e5cc8fc914ac4dee47aaf07389f"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"mu8dyk3P+stR1jd4kS1okfmAXto04Ma+G9tEWVsn0fhFeE086qGooD5uSXgEl9URlZb17gjk3gatD/x0QJLmAw==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-19T02:28:40.277725Z","bundle_sha256":"03cc53212f9513a973489f2a4f8787469cfd5c0abd79d063d6510d9ef4b7a604"}}