{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2014:5FWMB2YV6BPUS7YPAZZMC4OZL4","short_pith_number":"pith:5FWMB2YV","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1406.1733","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-fin.GN","submitted_at":"2014-06-06T16:47:42Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"49b1d700478b08b6296dec443d4b1386e501995fe9df14723e3b06dff9e79396","abstract_canon_sha256":"30bb28cba83dfd1d7e57ca0391ddfc96a548a8d0dc85323b83d074daf2f59814"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"e96cc0eb15f05f497f0f0672c171d95f33ec21f0aeae366cc5e2d5766f47ee94","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1406.1733","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1406.1733","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:50:14Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1406.1733v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:50:14Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1406.1733","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:50:14Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"5FWMB2YV6BPU","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:14Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"5FWMB2YV6BPUS7YP","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:14Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"5FWMB2YV","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:14Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2014:5FWMB2YV6BPUS7YPAZZMC4OZL4","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1406.1733","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-fin.GN","submitted_at":"2014-06-06T16:47:42Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"49b1d700478b08b6296dec443d4b1386e501995fe9df14723e3b06dff9e79396","abstract_canon_sha256":"30bb28cba83dfd1d7e57ca0391ddfc96a548a8d0dc85323b83d074daf2f59814"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"e96cc0eb15f05f497f0f0672c171d95f33ec21f0aeae366cc5e2d5766f47ee94","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T02:50:14.082436Z","signature_b64":"g4ZjtSXrjnEObQb1zuMM2+9k2vrSPI1rdEU6itRZZAWhAx6Rw4qM5gmKD0iP/IQnAUfApMa8Z6ks+PjUy3PiAQ==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"e96cc0eb15f05f497f0f0672c171d95f33ec21f0aeae366cc5e2d5766f47ee94","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T02:50:14.081806Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T02:50:14.081806Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1406.1733","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T02:50:14Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"oijRBFfmEs9pq5WBcM9MIdA3j0rayMkFVRaxc9jzWtxGsZBFdW/5zE0vaSsYILkUcSwzHeVwwDhPU+8O/SITCQ==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-07-17T18:04:19.815158Z"},"content_sha256":"ba4767618e8e32002e255c7c11fd755545ac5d85cb04d17337599357814f9a0e","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:ba4767618e8e32002e255c7c11fd755545ac5d85cb04d17337599357814f9a0e"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2014:5FWMB2YV6BPUS7YPAZZMC4OZL4","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"The Naive Extrapolation Hypothesis and the Rosy-Gloomy Forecasts","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"q-fin.GN","authors_text":"Vasileios Barmpoutis","submitted_at":"2014-06-06T16:47:42Z","abstract_excerpt":"I study the behavior and the performance of the long-term forecasts issued by financial analysts with respect to the Extrapolation Hypothesis. That hypothesis states that investors, extrapolating from the firms' recent performances, are too optimistic about growth and large firms and too pessimistic about value and small firms. I find that the forecasting errors are higher for the growth firms and large firms, thus providing support for the Extrapolation Hypothesis. However, in addition to the rosy picture of the growth and large firms, the forecasts of the value and small firms are not so glo"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1406.1733","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T02:50:14Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"gqexVX9xhw0lxUxMPhFpOptRx8DapxJBiJ1KkU/donoYxtQVaqs+yTGeeCt1wLitTaZPlqhhnZogJaxh0FoSDg==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-07-17T18:04:19.815520Z"},"content_sha256":"a3ee4fd48078d2b9569b00d1f629f95afdc09b647f71e2a4a4482b326eb7fe1a","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:a3ee4fd48078d2b9569b00d1f629f95afdc09b647f71e2a4a4482b326eb7fe1a"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/5FWMB2YV6BPUS7YPAZZMC4OZL4/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/5FWMB2YV6BPUS7YPAZZMC4OZL4/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/5FWMB2YV6BPUS7YPAZZMC4OZL4/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-07-17T18:04:19Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/5FWMB2YV6BPUS7YPAZZMC4OZL4","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/5FWMB2YV6BPUS7YPAZZMC4OZL4/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/5FWMB2YV6BPUS7YPAZZMC4OZL4/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/5FWMB2YV6BPUS7YPAZZMC4OZL4/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2014:5FWMB2YV6BPUS7YPAZZMC4OZL4","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"30bb28cba83dfd1d7e57ca0391ddfc96a548a8d0dc85323b83d074daf2f59814","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-fin.GN","submitted_at":"2014-06-06T16:47:42Z","title_canon_sha256":"49b1d700478b08b6296dec443d4b1386e501995fe9df14723e3b06dff9e79396"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1406.1733","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1406.1733","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:50:14Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1406.1733v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:50:14Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1406.1733","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:50:14Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"5FWMB2YV6BPU","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:14Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"5FWMB2YV6BPUS7YP","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:14Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"5FWMB2YV","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:14Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:a3ee4fd48078d2b9569b00d1f629f95afdc09b647f71e2a4a4482b326eb7fe1a","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:50:14Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"I study the behavior and the performance of the long-term forecasts issued by financial analysts with respect to the Extrapolation Hypothesis. That hypothesis states that investors, extrapolating from the firms' recent performances, are too optimistic about growth and large firms and too pessimistic about value and small firms. I find that the forecasting errors are higher for the growth firms and large firms, thus providing support for the Extrapolation Hypothesis. However, in addition to the rosy picture of the growth and large firms, the forecasts of the value and small firms are not so glo","authors_text":"Vasileios Barmpoutis","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-fin.GN","submitted_at":"2014-06-06T16:47:42Z","title":"The Naive Extrapolation Hypothesis and the Rosy-Gloomy Forecasts"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1406.1733","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:ba4767618e8e32002e255c7c11fd755545ac5d85cb04d17337599357814f9a0e","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:50:14Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"30bb28cba83dfd1d7e57ca0391ddfc96a548a8d0dc85323b83d074daf2f59814","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-fin.GN","submitted_at":"2014-06-06T16:47:42Z","title_canon_sha256":"49b1d700478b08b6296dec443d4b1386e501995fe9df14723e3b06dff9e79396"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1406.1733","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"e96cc0eb15f05f497f0f0672c171d95f33ec21f0aeae366cc5e2d5766f47ee94","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"e96cc0eb15f05f497f0f0672c171d95f33ec21f0aeae366cc5e2d5766f47ee94","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T02:50:14.081806Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T02:50:14.081806Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"g4ZjtSXrjnEObQb1zuMM2+9k2vrSPI1rdEU6itRZZAWhAx6Rw4qM5gmKD0iP/IQnAUfApMa8Z6ks+PjUy3PiAQ==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T02:50:14.082436Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1406.1733","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:ba4767618e8e32002e255c7c11fd755545ac5d85cb04d17337599357814f9a0e","sha256:a3ee4fd48078d2b9569b00d1f629f95afdc09b647f71e2a4a4482b326eb7fe1a"],"state_sha256":"fd97d89ab453dc89df1b8531323becfc193a1affc39d7a507d0bcc01e9cd9018"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"/SXU6L10OHTvDyiffrLkhd2lZPg4P8pp024G9PeNi1jWUQJf9UNtudl35bc4dw1pxTLhvDZfE2o+5dFQ43oEAA==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-07-17T18:04:19.817640Z","bundle_sha256":"2d235a058fca756176a24626e9813eb08418880c1a4b8cff777eb4bf3fc0208b"}}