{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2017:5PIQT2ZCDRPYJ6FPCPUICHGWMZ","short_pith_number":"pith:5PIQT2ZC","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1707.03035","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"math.ST","submitted_at":"2017-07-10T19:52:41Z","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.TH"],"title_canon_sha256":"c4c073200bba4d833ad264db900dc4087a4537a560172226ae6749267b5c386c","abstract_canon_sha256":"2ff196d9a751753ce242cfca17d1e5827c9488384db13f5dbf74c7c1fec9ca0c"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"ebd109eb221c5f84f8af13e8811cd666692de9d4de921828659b2c37bee27a32","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1707.03035","version":3},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1707.03035","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:02:45Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1707.03035v3","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:02:45Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1707.03035","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:02:45Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"5PIQT2ZCDRPY","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:00Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"5PIQT2ZCDRPYJ6FP","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:00Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"5PIQT2ZC","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:00Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2017:5PIQT2ZCDRPYJ6FPCPUICHGWMZ","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1707.03035","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"math.ST","submitted_at":"2017-07-10T19:52:41Z","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.TH"],"title_canon_sha256":"c4c073200bba4d833ad264db900dc4087a4537a560172226ae6749267b5c386c","abstract_canon_sha256":"2ff196d9a751753ce242cfca17d1e5827c9488384db13f5dbf74c7c1fec9ca0c"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"ebd109eb221c5f84f8af13e8811cd666692de9d4de921828659b2c37bee27a32","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T00:02:45.677642Z","signature_b64":"JlgktYK+VQJkVGBLgOG9luKOHZVCUOZingqZXmDfwERVMEKCoBgZkr5U0F8C3bq3w/Mzw3z7BEAIp6Umpyo9Ag==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"ebd109eb221c5f84f8af13e8811cd666692de9d4de921828659b2c37bee27a32","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T00:02:45.677123Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T00:02:45.677123Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1707.03035","source_version":3,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T00:02:45Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"T31ru4jrzOlYJAuMIWhZdQLb3vGkHcZcy1MH8RABPjizmYuS5tC0y241CS6YeCWatS/T+ZNzcIxKmZ9eYx6rAg==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-02T23:48:46.599541Z"},"content_sha256":"c36016a334842f61e62862544fa06967f04d4f0682d63c7b1f27f7d4c82e6a94","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:c36016a334842f61e62862544fa06967f04d4f0682d63c7b1f27f7d4c82e6a94"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2017:5PIQT2ZCDRPYJ6FPCPUICHGWMZ","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Forecast dominance testing via sign randomization","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["stat.TH"],"primary_cat":"math.ST","authors_text":"Fabian Kr\\\"uger, Werner Ehm","submitted_at":"2017-07-10T19:52:41Z","abstract_excerpt":"We propose randomization tests of whether forecast 1 outperforms forecast 2 across a class of scoring functions. This hypothesis is of applied interest: While the prediction context often prescribes a certain class of scoring functions, it is typically hard to motivate a specific choice on statistical or substantive grounds. We investigate the asymptotic behavior of the test statistics under mild conditions, avoiding the need to assume particular dynamic properties of forecasts and realizations. The properties of the one-sided tests depend on a corresponding version of Anderson's inequality, w"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1707.03035","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T00:02:45Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"dgf02V5RLNjuxDxr79T1yPBBI/m/CQJSZ7yFKaxHUW23HY2rs/EA7j/PWlewlxWpEpsJo3YFbivyATNDZRfwBA==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-02T23:48:46.599886Z"},"content_sha256":"58557868d3896ebf983278f929e67445f341492f1a1d4c7668d04d6105290e3b","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:58557868d3896ebf983278f929e67445f341492f1a1d4c7668d04d6105290e3b"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/5PIQT2ZCDRPYJ6FPCPUICHGWMZ/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/5PIQT2ZCDRPYJ6FPCPUICHGWMZ/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/5PIQT2ZCDRPYJ6FPCPUICHGWMZ/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-02T23:48:46Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/5PIQT2ZCDRPYJ6FPCPUICHGWMZ","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/5PIQT2ZCDRPYJ6FPCPUICHGWMZ/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/5PIQT2ZCDRPYJ6FPCPUICHGWMZ/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/5PIQT2ZCDRPYJ6FPCPUICHGWMZ/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2017:5PIQT2ZCDRPYJ6FPCPUICHGWMZ","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"2ff196d9a751753ce242cfca17d1e5827c9488384db13f5dbf74c7c1fec9ca0c","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.TH"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"math.ST","submitted_at":"2017-07-10T19:52:41Z","title_canon_sha256":"c4c073200bba4d833ad264db900dc4087a4537a560172226ae6749267b5c386c"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1707.03035","kind":"arxiv","version":3}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1707.03035","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:02:45Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1707.03035v3","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:02:45Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1707.03035","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:02:45Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"5PIQT2ZCDRPY","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:00Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"5PIQT2ZCDRPYJ6FP","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:00Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"5PIQT2ZC","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:00Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:58557868d3896ebf983278f929e67445f341492f1a1d4c7668d04d6105290e3b","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:02:45Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"We propose randomization tests of whether forecast 1 outperforms forecast 2 across a class of scoring functions. This hypothesis is of applied interest: While the prediction context often prescribes a certain class of scoring functions, it is typically hard to motivate a specific choice on statistical or substantive grounds. We investigate the asymptotic behavior of the test statistics under mild conditions, avoiding the need to assume particular dynamic properties of forecasts and realizations. The properties of the one-sided tests depend on a corresponding version of Anderson's inequality, w","authors_text":"Fabian Kr\\\"uger, Werner Ehm","cross_cats":["stat.TH"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"math.ST","submitted_at":"2017-07-10T19:52:41Z","title":"Forecast dominance testing via sign randomization"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1707.03035","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:c36016a334842f61e62862544fa06967f04d4f0682d63c7b1f27f7d4c82e6a94","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:02:45Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"2ff196d9a751753ce242cfca17d1e5827c9488384db13f5dbf74c7c1fec9ca0c","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.TH"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"math.ST","submitted_at":"2017-07-10T19:52:41Z","title_canon_sha256":"c4c073200bba4d833ad264db900dc4087a4537a560172226ae6749267b5c386c"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1707.03035","kind":"arxiv","version":3}},"canonical_sha256":"ebd109eb221c5f84f8af13e8811cd666692de9d4de921828659b2c37bee27a32","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"ebd109eb221c5f84f8af13e8811cd666692de9d4de921828659b2c37bee27a32","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T00:02:45.677123Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T00:02:45.677123Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"JlgktYK+VQJkVGBLgOG9luKOHZVCUOZingqZXmDfwERVMEKCoBgZkr5U0F8C3bq3w/Mzw3z7BEAIp6Umpyo9Ag==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T00:02:45.677642Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1707.03035","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":3}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:c36016a334842f61e62862544fa06967f04d4f0682d63c7b1f27f7d4c82e6a94","sha256:58557868d3896ebf983278f929e67445f341492f1a1d4c7668d04d6105290e3b"],"state_sha256":"efb2affb7c72de37a1c7d3273f1db015be06cde99e74a8dfd384b437aa7818f8"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"MxE+ecRxpcln0cg0/TZGJANUeOkqhDDmUdbPUBUfZpJejSCIi900Mx9t1MPJ30cOqYkU5tqbwMzm8fPD2FlbBw==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-02T23:48:46.601814Z","bundle_sha256":"72f94adb5d621844b1cc3f0b1c1d7a31e5ee1f8e186fee46c3627ca94d095c93"}}