{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2026:5VISVFQG55LXFC6XBAHIWP64CN","short_pith_number":"pith:5VISVFQG","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2607.17447","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2026-07-20T00:29:04Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.CL","math.ST","stat.ML","stat.TH"],"title_canon_sha256":"24500d83100e32917b02677bd82e7d23be5ae50892a3ef28be4e8c7af44ce717","abstract_canon_sha256":"951e22a3b51f6c76bbd054c92d2df9da21ab6248da4ac226ec606c2e8092e0be"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"ed512a9606ef57728bd7080e8b3fdc134bc2ceaf1e6fd3366c194374cd482c4f","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"2607.17447","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2607.17447","created_at":"2026-07-21T01:21:33Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2607.17447v1","created_at":"2026-07-21T01:21:33Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2607.17447","created_at":"2026-07-21T01:21:33Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"5VISVFQG55LX","created_at":"2026-07-21T01:21:33Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"5VISVFQG55LXFC6X","created_at":"2026-07-21T01:21:33Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"5VISVFQG","created_at":"2026-07-21T01:21:33Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2026:5VISVFQG55LXFC6XBAHIWP64CN","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2607.17447","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2026-07-20T00:29:04Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.CL","math.ST","stat.ML","stat.TH"],"title_canon_sha256":"24500d83100e32917b02677bd82e7d23be5ae50892a3ef28be4e8c7af44ce717","abstract_canon_sha256":"951e22a3b51f6c76bbd054c92d2df9da21ab6248da4ac226ec606c2e8092e0be"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"ed512a9606ef57728bd7080e8b3fdc134bc2ceaf1e6fd3366c194374cd482c4f","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-07-21T01:21:33.366987Z","signature_b64":"RsMks1QqaRWkf6q4vP+FJ8TAe5hQazybnDAzrVg+rzA11gOaVe1Ct4NvGedSaqdrRu6xYPMNd57TqHTTShBEDg==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"ed512a9606ef57728bd7080e8b3fdc134bc2ceaf1e6fd3366c194374cd482c4f","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-21T01:21:33.366057Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-07-21T01:21:33.366057Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"2607.17447","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-21T01:21:33Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"gB6KpqpHGC7QaXqwnXMU3yppmJxRd+iG3kBibs8huhyZRADvtT6vy9cEkoBnQUaHyU67j7KicxPJ6A1sZI2tBQ==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-04T20:24:02.820303Z"},"content_sha256":"d811dd6ea5a9c5554029728524726fe2d10999adb7be43d121fc398b62441b56","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:d811dd6ea5a9c5554029728524726fe2d10999adb7be43d121fc398b62441b56"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2026:5VISVFQG55LXFC6XBAHIWP64CN","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Calibrating Semantic Uncertainty from Observable Language-Model Probabilities","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.CL","math.ST","stat.ML","stat.TH"],"primary_cat":"stat.ME","authors_text":"Matthew F. Dixon","submitted_at":"2026-07-20T00:29:04Z","abstract_excerpt":"Language models produce probabilities over words, but professional decisions require uncertainty over meaningful states such as diagnoses, hypotheses or operational conditions. A model's printed numerical confidence does not establish reliability. We introduce a semantic map: a prespecified, testable bridge from probabilities over verbal responses to probabilities over declared states, formulated as semiparametric inference for a finite-valued latent state. A reference model defines the target posterior, the language model supplies an unrestricted conditional distribution over verbal responses"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2607.17447","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2607.17447/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-21T01:21:33Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"V4lY9y00jEVnJXO7UVTdyjQ6TtS6UB61AWySrU+0Mv/PwR1jVxGCswv1peJ2w6sm9fFDncBVaCimOQf891f6BQ==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-04T20:24:02.820842Z"},"content_sha256":"5c52e1cae14c9a195e3d41c0a6459474be0c4e0da3d6851cfafacf801c77b5b4","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:5c52e1cae14c9a195e3d41c0a6459474be0c4e0da3d6851cfafacf801c77b5b4"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/5VISVFQG55LXFC6XBAHIWP64CN/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/5VISVFQG55LXFC6XBAHIWP64CN/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/5VISVFQG55LXFC6XBAHIWP64CN/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-08-04T20:24:02Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/5VISVFQG55LXFC6XBAHIWP64CN","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/5VISVFQG55LXFC6XBAHIWP64CN/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/5VISVFQG55LXFC6XBAHIWP64CN/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/5VISVFQG55LXFC6XBAHIWP64CN/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2026:5VISVFQG55LXFC6XBAHIWP64CN","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"951e22a3b51f6c76bbd054c92d2df9da21ab6248da4ac226ec606c2e8092e0be","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.CL","math.ST","stat.ML","stat.TH"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2026-07-20T00:29:04Z","title_canon_sha256":"24500d83100e32917b02677bd82e7d23be5ae50892a3ef28be4e8c7af44ce717"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2607.17447","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2607.17447","created_at":"2026-07-21T01:21:33Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2607.17447v1","created_at":"2026-07-21T01:21:33Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2607.17447","created_at":"2026-07-21T01:21:33Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"5VISVFQG55LX","created_at":"2026-07-21T01:21:33Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"5VISVFQG55LXFC6X","created_at":"2026-07-21T01:21:33Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"5VISVFQG","created_at":"2026-07-21T01:21:33Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:5c52e1cae14c9a195e3d41c0a6459474be0c4e0da3d6851cfafacf801c77b5b4","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-07-21T01:21:33Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2607.17447/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Language models produce probabilities over words, but professional decisions require uncertainty over meaningful states such as diagnoses, hypotheses or operational conditions. A model's printed numerical confidence does not establish reliability. We introduce a semantic map: a prespecified, testable bridge from probabilities over verbal responses to probabilities over declared states, formulated as semiparametric inference for a finite-valued latent state. A reference model defines the target posterior, the language model supplies an unrestricted conditional distribution over verbal responses","authors_text":"Matthew F. Dixon","cross_cats":["cs.CL","math.ST","stat.ML","stat.TH"],"headline":"","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2026-07-20T00:29:04Z","title":"Calibrating Semantic Uncertainty from Observable Language-Model Probabilities"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2607.17447","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:d811dd6ea5a9c5554029728524726fe2d10999adb7be43d121fc398b62441b56","target":"record","created_at":"2026-07-21T01:21:33Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"951e22a3b51f6c76bbd054c92d2df9da21ab6248da4ac226ec606c2e8092e0be","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.CL","math.ST","stat.ML","stat.TH"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2026-07-20T00:29:04Z","title_canon_sha256":"24500d83100e32917b02677bd82e7d23be5ae50892a3ef28be4e8c7af44ce717"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2607.17447","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"ed512a9606ef57728bd7080e8b3fdc134bc2ceaf1e6fd3366c194374cd482c4f","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"ed512a9606ef57728bd7080e8b3fdc134bc2ceaf1e6fd3366c194374cd482c4f","first_computed_at":"2026-07-21T01:21:33.366057Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-21T01:21:33.366057Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"RsMks1QqaRWkf6q4vP+FJ8TAe5hQazybnDAzrVg+rzA11gOaVe1Ct4NvGedSaqdrRu6xYPMNd57TqHTTShBEDg==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-07-21T01:21:33.366987Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2607.17447","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:d811dd6ea5a9c5554029728524726fe2d10999adb7be43d121fc398b62441b56","sha256:5c52e1cae14c9a195e3d41c0a6459474be0c4e0da3d6851cfafacf801c77b5b4"],"state_sha256":"45466036de116646be3a949ace678546509543b5932c09ccbb9d4b44b79943e7"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"HNXiGq1hCvH00texyH8Ihdu1mzmVGeskO/Q+BBvytNtSf/VITSgFKIx9coxQeJHaPgmMGQ6q6HbqVYe8gR2KCQ==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-04T20:24:02.825627Z","bundle_sha256":"0f449fd8edf09482ab2b53cd5b2dddf916ee7810c80b78d64edfbc5c6526c43e"}}