{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2014:64YFMVFKYSYFKL67LPJKURMZ2C","short_pith_number":"pith:64YFMVFK","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1406.6038","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2014-06-23T19:45:40Z","cross_cats_sorted":["q-fin.RM"],"title_canon_sha256":"22f5b7bb3ef2d20cfdc07c87135980ded2fe42413f1261e60a3a0980cccb4cc3","abstract_canon_sha256":"a232386caaa92ca98eb464aa5f3026b410206318106d15b140b335810ea3ecd0"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"f7305654aac4b0552fdf5bd2aa4599d0ba03daead0ad0a11af60ed323cde601b","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1406.6038","version":2},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1406.6038","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:33:25Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1406.6038v2","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:33:25Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1406.6038","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:33:25Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"64YFMVFKYSYF","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:16Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"64YFMVFKYSYFKL67","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:16Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"64YFMVFK","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:16Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2014:64YFMVFKYSYFKL67LPJKURMZ2C","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1406.6038","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2014-06-23T19:45:40Z","cross_cats_sorted":["q-fin.RM"],"title_canon_sha256":"22f5b7bb3ef2d20cfdc07c87135980ded2fe42413f1261e60a3a0980cccb4cc3","abstract_canon_sha256":"a232386caaa92ca98eb464aa5f3026b410206318106d15b140b335810ea3ecd0"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"f7305654aac4b0552fdf5bd2aa4599d0ba03daead0ad0a11af60ed323cde601b","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T02:33:25.179836Z","signature_b64":"JH5/U6UDjZXf0tVqLlCc4QXi2k038djTTEidIVYEjW1I7t4FfN4ogdXRXAn2qXzUJD7GgWlRlhlLpJjJMNWIDg==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"f7305654aac4b0552fdf5bd2aa4599d0ba03daead0ad0a11af60ed323cde601b","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T02:33:25.179211Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T02:33:25.179211Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1406.6038","source_version":2,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T02:33:25Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"vJ7iwlfzY5EEgAc7BcP3l5HeHA1z8eR/KqYkHOkjZaJYkpOPzPyBFlQe/wnfxHd1JQ5oePXyOjqssb9QmJqABw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-30T21:48:51.904839Z"},"content_sha256":"96a31cfc94b2fce5f382b31cb66c8d0ba5df5b6a57cd4a334cdc826ddc0f0ed3","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:96a31cfc94b2fce5f382b31cb66c8d0ba5df5b6a57cd4a334cdc826ddc0f0ed3"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2014:64YFMVFKYSYFKL67LPJKURMZ2C","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Exact fit of simple finite mixture models","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["q-fin.RM"],"primary_cat":"stat.ML","authors_text":"Dirk Tasche","submitted_at":"2014-06-23T19:45:40Z","abstract_excerpt":"How to forecast next year's portfolio-wide credit default rate based on last year's default observations and the current score distribution? A classical approach to this problem consists of fitting a mixture of the conditional score distributions observed last year to the current score distribution. This is a special (simple) case of a finite mixture model where the mixture components are fixed and only the weights of the components are estimated. The optimum weights provide a forecast of next year's portfolio-wide default rate. We point out that the maximum-likelihood (ML) approach to fitting"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1406.6038","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T02:33:25Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"PRW7elFq5/RDHWjgpnMjq8HmHJ7mKKe/4hB98oaI392RVKQ+1T2xeoTgL9GyzQIG33J6sYSiq2mJNnXIKGPlAg==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-30T21:48:51.905190Z"},"content_sha256":"6795128d94cda97b5f647caf313d9d5fe9d996123b8a6ed72b111dd3e1d16386","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:6795128d94cda97b5f647caf313d9d5fe9d996123b8a6ed72b111dd3e1d16386"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/64YFMVFKYSYFKL67LPJKURMZ2C/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/64YFMVFKYSYFKL67LPJKURMZ2C/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/64YFMVFKYSYFKL67LPJKURMZ2C/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-30T21:48:51Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/64YFMVFKYSYFKL67LPJKURMZ2C","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/64YFMVFKYSYFKL67LPJKURMZ2C/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/64YFMVFKYSYFKL67LPJKURMZ2C/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/64YFMVFKYSYFKL67LPJKURMZ2C/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2014:64YFMVFKYSYFKL67LPJKURMZ2C","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"a232386caaa92ca98eb464aa5f3026b410206318106d15b140b335810ea3ecd0","cross_cats_sorted":["q-fin.RM"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2014-06-23T19:45:40Z","title_canon_sha256":"22f5b7bb3ef2d20cfdc07c87135980ded2fe42413f1261e60a3a0980cccb4cc3"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1406.6038","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1406.6038","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:33:25Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1406.6038v2","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:33:25Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1406.6038","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:33:25Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"64YFMVFKYSYF","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:16Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"64YFMVFKYSYFKL67","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:16Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"64YFMVFK","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:16Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:6795128d94cda97b5f647caf313d9d5fe9d996123b8a6ed72b111dd3e1d16386","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:33:25Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"How to forecast next year's portfolio-wide credit default rate based on last year's default observations and the current score distribution? A classical approach to this problem consists of fitting a mixture of the conditional score distributions observed last year to the current score distribution. This is a special (simple) case of a finite mixture model where the mixture components are fixed and only the weights of the components are estimated. The optimum weights provide a forecast of next year's portfolio-wide default rate. We point out that the maximum-likelihood (ML) approach to fitting","authors_text":"Dirk Tasche","cross_cats":["q-fin.RM"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2014-06-23T19:45:40Z","title":"Exact fit of simple finite mixture models"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1406.6038","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:96a31cfc94b2fce5f382b31cb66c8d0ba5df5b6a57cd4a334cdc826ddc0f0ed3","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:33:25Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"a232386caaa92ca98eb464aa5f3026b410206318106d15b140b335810ea3ecd0","cross_cats_sorted":["q-fin.RM"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2014-06-23T19:45:40Z","title_canon_sha256":"22f5b7bb3ef2d20cfdc07c87135980ded2fe42413f1261e60a3a0980cccb4cc3"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1406.6038","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"canonical_sha256":"f7305654aac4b0552fdf5bd2aa4599d0ba03daead0ad0a11af60ed323cde601b","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"f7305654aac4b0552fdf5bd2aa4599d0ba03daead0ad0a11af60ed323cde601b","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T02:33:25.179211Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T02:33:25.179211Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"JH5/U6UDjZXf0tVqLlCc4QXi2k038djTTEidIVYEjW1I7t4FfN4ogdXRXAn2qXzUJD7GgWlRlhlLpJjJMNWIDg==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T02:33:25.179836Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1406.6038","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":2}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:96a31cfc94b2fce5f382b31cb66c8d0ba5df5b6a57cd4a334cdc826ddc0f0ed3","sha256:6795128d94cda97b5f647caf313d9d5fe9d996123b8a6ed72b111dd3e1d16386"],"state_sha256":"65d6183567aac0f4568cf7d57a5b5fa3650eae564b6ad1a22aab648ab66e76a6"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"A+Q4qX9Thu5Z9d6Gm+Fi2ETuR9IQTmhnuIm6zAC9EtAadvTBjqqK7xrM3Alr3gAslyeG6tizTFROaUCuWmz/BQ==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-30T21:48:51.907360Z","bundle_sha256":"cbc633d8433e8ec8150591f398e3ed2bf4deb0f9d399f6f2588eaa31d3f1cb4d"}}