Pith Number

pith:6AYZYT5K

pith:2026:6AYZYT5KQREUFUIFCFGUXFQYNJ

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Pegs, Floats, and Forests: A Machine Learning Revisit of Exchange Rate Regimes and Growth in Transition Economies

Marjan Petreski

Intermediate exchange rate regimes reduce growth by 1 to 10 percentage points versus fixed pegs in transition economies, with the largest shortfalls where institutions are weakest.

arxiv:2605.17391 v1 · 2026-05-17 · econ.GN · q-fin.EC

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Claims

C1strongest claim

Intermediate exchange rate regimes consistently underperform fixed arrangements, with growth penalties ranging from -1.0 to -10.4 percentage points, while floating regimes show negative but largely insignificant differentials. The intermediate regime penalty is sharpest precisely where institutions are weakest.

C2weakest assumption

The Couharde-Grekou (2024) probabilistic synthesis classification accurately assigns exchange rate regimes without systematic measurement error that would bias the growth differentials, and the random forest variable importance metrics isolate the institutional interaction without residual confounding from unobserved time-varying factors.

C3one line summary

Intermediate exchange rate regimes underperform fixed ones by 1 to 10.4 percentage points in growth for transition economies, with the effect strongest in weak institutions and pre-2003 periods.

References

11 extracted · 11 resolved · 0 Pith anchors

[1] Aghion, P., Bacchetta, P., Ranciere, R., and Rogoff, K. (2009). Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 56(4), 494–513. Asho 2009

[2] Breiman, L. (2001). Random forests. Machine Learning, 45, 5–32. Bubula, A. and Otker-Robe, I. (2002). The Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes Since 1990: Evidence from de Facto Policies. IMF Working Pa 2001

[3] Dean, J.W. (2003). Exchange Rate Regimes in Central and Eastern European Transition Economies. Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia. De Grauwe, P. and Schnabl, G. (2004). Exchange Rate R 2003

[4] Dellas, H. and Zilberfarb, B. (1993). Real Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade: A Reexamination of the Theory. Southern Economic Journal, 59(4), 641– 1993

[5] Dixit, A. (1989). Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 104(2), 205–228. Domac, I., Peters, K., and Yuzefovich, Y. (2001). Does the Exchange R 1989

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Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-20T00:03:56.073573Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

f0319c4faa844942d105114d4b96186a4d155725d06c16a37c09f169b751d0c6

Aliases

arxiv: 2605.17391 · arxiv_version: 2605.17391v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2605.17391 · pith_short_12: 6AYZYT5KQREU · pith_short_16: 6AYZYT5KQREUFUIF · pith_short_8: 6AYZYT5K

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Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/6AYZYT5KQREUFUIFCFGUXFQYNJ \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: f0319c4faa844942d105114d4b96186a4d155725d06c16a37c09f169b751d0c6

Canonical record JSON

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      "q-fin.EC"
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    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "primary_cat": "econ.GN",
    "submitted_at": "2026-05-17T11:19:29Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "0318c3376c93086099c68ffe95f6b3ce46d09b4f5fa9939b82a693c8de21add7"
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