{"record_type":"pith_number_record","schema_url":"https://pith.science/schemas/pith-number/v1.json","pith_number":"pith:2014:6C2LVVM757BW3MDUSINHCVXO4X","short_pith_number":"pith:6C2LVVM7","schema_version":"1.0","canonical_sha256":"f0b4bad59fefc36db074921a7156eee5d2a752097ef9b58a91876c027aa6f7ae","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1406.6040","version":1},"attestation_state":"computed","paper":{"title":"Stopping the SuperSpreader Epidemic, Part III: Prediction","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"q-bio.PE","authors_text":"W. David Wick","submitted_at":"2014-06-23T19:47:33Z","abstract_excerpt":"In two previous papers, I introduced SuperSpreader (SS) epidemic models, offered some theoretical discussion of prevention issues, and fitted some models to data derived from published accounts of the ongoing MERS epidemic (concluding that a pandemic is likely). Continuing on this theme, here I discuss prediction: whether, in a disease outbreak driven by superspreader events, a rigorous decision point---meaning a declaration that a pandemic is imminent---can be defined. I show that all sources of prediction bias contribute to generating false negatives (i.e., discounting the chance of a pandem"},"verification_status":{"content_addressed":true,"pith_receipt":true,"author_attested":false,"weak_author_claims":0,"strong_author_claims":0,"externally_anchored":false,"storage_verified":false,"citation_signatures":0,"replication_records":0,"graph_snapshot":true,"references_resolved":false,"formal_links_present":false},"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1406.6040","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-bio.PE","submitted_at":"2014-06-23T19:47:33Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"15c9147cef4b57025fc375ff0b234db30203b666c031f2d8ee0dead7c351411c","abstract_canon_sha256":"72009f10c39c712217a06573d13202ed263961dd42464137740344c7a1adc9ff"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T02:49:10.259868Z","signature_b64":"1shhd4b12JKChuZu0t5OazIkjrrHVdqa84/Fpt2SbOurfkzOxeNwv+k8dr0swtn7nC9G36harFZTMmPRvKTgCg==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"f0b4bad59fefc36db074921a7156eee5d2a752097ef9b58a91876c027aa6f7ae","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T02:49:10.259459Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T02:49:10.259459Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Stopping the SuperSpreader Epidemic, Part III: Prediction","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"q-bio.PE","authors_text":"W. David Wick","submitted_at":"2014-06-23T19:47:33Z","abstract_excerpt":"In two previous papers, I introduced SuperSpreader (SS) epidemic models, offered some theoretical discussion of prevention issues, and fitted some models to data derived from published accounts of the ongoing MERS epidemic (concluding that a pandemic is likely). Continuing on this theme, here I discuss prediction: whether, in a disease outbreak driven by superspreader events, a rigorous decision point---meaning a declaration that a pandemic is imminent---can be defined. I show that all sources of prediction bias contribute to generating false negatives (i.e., discounting the chance of a pandem"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1406.6040","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1406.6040","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:49:10.259515+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1406.6040v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:49:10.259515+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1406.6040","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:49:10.259515+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"6C2LVVM757BW","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:16.859392+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"6C2LVVM757BW3MDU","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:16.859392+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"6C2LVVM7","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:16.859392+00:00"}],"events":[],"event_summary":{},"paper_claims":[],"inbound_citations":{"count":0,"internal_anchor_count":0,"sample":[]},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"sample":[],"anchors":[]},"links":{"html":"https://pith.science/pith/6C2LVVM757BW3MDUSINHCVXO4X","json":"https://pith.science/pith/6C2LVVM757BW3MDUSINHCVXO4X.json","graph_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/6C2LVVM757BW3MDUSINHCVXO4X/graph.json","events_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/6C2LVVM757BW3MDUSINHCVXO4X/events.json","paper":"https://pith.science/paper/6C2LVVM7"},"agent_actions":{"view_html":"https://pith.science/pith/6C2LVVM757BW3MDUSINHCVXO4X","download_json":"https://pith.science/pith/6C2LVVM757BW3MDUSINHCVXO4X.json","view_paper":"https://pith.science/paper/6C2LVVM7","resolve_alias":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/resolve?arxiv=1406.6040&json=true","fetch_graph":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/6C2LVVM757BW3MDUSINHCVXO4X/graph.json","fetch_events":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/6C2LVVM757BW3MDUSINHCVXO4X/events.json","actions":{"anchor_timestamp":"https://pith.science/pith/6C2LVVM757BW3MDUSINHCVXO4X/action/timestamp_anchor","attest_storage":"https://pith.science/pith/6C2LVVM757BW3MDUSINHCVXO4X/action/storage_attestation","attest_author":"https://pith.science/pith/6C2LVVM757BW3MDUSINHCVXO4X/action/author_attestation","sign_citation":"https://pith.science/pith/6C2LVVM757BW3MDUSINHCVXO4X/action/citation_signature","submit_replication":"https://pith.science/pith/6C2LVVM757BW3MDUSINHCVXO4X/action/replication_record"}},"created_at":"2026-05-18T02:49:10.259515+00:00","updated_at":"2026-05-18T02:49:10.259515+00:00"}