{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2024:6F2R7WLD7UILIM7TO4YH4Q2YGK","short_pith_number":"pith:6F2R7WLD","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2410.13763","kind":"arxiv","version":4},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"eess.SY","submitted_at":"2024-10-17T16:59:07Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.SY","stat.AP"],"title_canon_sha256":"22aa7407c53db42438ad2b00cdae706c3dd93e894ae26be641912675ff8819c0","abstract_canon_sha256":"91226ba36d7e9a18a796fe14229b665a3d98fd27c58ee0d1ad13ebe5f5cd7222"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"f1751fd963fd10b433f377307e435832b764b8eef5c6a78be4a3411b81c24843","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"2410.13763","version":4},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2410.13763","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:39:44Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2410.13763v4","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:39:44Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2410.13763","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:39:44Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"6F2R7WLD7UIL","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:39:44Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"6F2R7WLD7UILIM7T","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:39:44Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"6F2R7WLD","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:39:44Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2024:6F2R7WLD7UILIM7TO4YH4Q2YGK","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2410.13763","kind":"arxiv","version":4},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"eess.SY","submitted_at":"2024-10-17T16:59:07Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.SY","stat.AP"],"title_canon_sha256":"22aa7407c53db42438ad2b00cdae706c3dd93e894ae26be641912675ff8819c0","abstract_canon_sha256":"91226ba36d7e9a18a796fe14229b665a3d98fd27c58ee0d1ad13ebe5f5cd7222"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"f1751fd963fd10b433f377307e435832b764b8eef5c6a78be4a3411b81c24843","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-07-05T11:39:44.182821Z","signature_b64":"ialaZuSECUNssJeojEB/yuCKT24l3J+eHSUBiU7QC4aLTwlLPuX3ifbEU5SZeewZ8auCb1NbsebAL6ZfLjXvDw==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"f1751fd963fd10b433f377307e435832b764b8eef5c6a78be4a3411b81c24843","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T11:39:44.182306Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T11:39:44.182306Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"2410.13763","source_version":4,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-05T11:39:44Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"MCccSmRRKzBiDi5Tx0mqPVPb+usBBUg2Y1ms9QLZkOovgCa/AWt5KmTWO9nOPI6Pnzbd5ilLmQ/Ws9BnaZQSBw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-07-13T19:33:54.795764Z"},"content_sha256":"85e5f476310fd28338a0ae612a475b3c7d6de115767ffabd30864011d11447d1","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:85e5f476310fd28338a0ae612a475b3c7d6de115767ffabd30864011d11447d1"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2024:6F2R7WLD7UILIM7TO4YH4Q2YGK","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Assessing the Optimistic Bias in the Natural Inflow Forecasts: A Call for Model Monitoring in Brazil","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.SY","stat.AP"],"primary_cat":"eess.SY","authors_text":"Alexandre Street, Arthur Brigatto, Cristiano Fernandes, Davi Valladao, Guilherme Bodin, Joaquim Dias Garcia","submitted_at":"2024-10-17T16:59:07Z","abstract_excerpt":"Hydroelectricity accounted for roughly 61.4% of Brazil's total generation in 2024 and addressed most of the intermittency of wind and solar generation. Thus, inflow forecasting plays a critical role in the operation, planning, and market in this country, as well as in any other hydro-dependent power system. These forecasts influence generation schedules, reservoir management, and market pricing, shaping the dynamics of the entire electricity sector. The objective of this paper is to measure and present empirical evidence of a systematic optimistic bias in the official inflow forecast methodolo"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2410.13763","kind":"arxiv","version":4},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2410.13763/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-05T11:39:44Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"UgBq4WBGq0W29B/6Wsc8TKJZLmtJHJjYXszvFxZe0M50qcmGwjXmFlprV9v8K8oNgMrjiRoGbN3x+VT5rurBBw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-07-13T19:33:54.796136Z"},"content_sha256":"bd72c334fc998b16af03a9071e31e7db5f0bb5eea029882303e6b1cf76dab50a","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:bd72c334fc998b16af03a9071e31e7db5f0bb5eea029882303e6b1cf76dab50a"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/6F2R7WLD7UILIM7TO4YH4Q2YGK/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/6F2R7WLD7UILIM7TO4YH4Q2YGK/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/6F2R7WLD7UILIM7TO4YH4Q2YGK/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-07-13T19:33:54Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/6F2R7WLD7UILIM7TO4YH4Q2YGK","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/6F2R7WLD7UILIM7TO4YH4Q2YGK/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/6F2R7WLD7UILIM7TO4YH4Q2YGK/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/6F2R7WLD7UILIM7TO4YH4Q2YGK/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2024:6F2R7WLD7UILIM7TO4YH4Q2YGK","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"91226ba36d7e9a18a796fe14229b665a3d98fd27c58ee0d1ad13ebe5f5cd7222","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.SY","stat.AP"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"eess.SY","submitted_at":"2024-10-17T16:59:07Z","title_canon_sha256":"22aa7407c53db42438ad2b00cdae706c3dd93e894ae26be641912675ff8819c0"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2410.13763","kind":"arxiv","version":4}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2410.13763","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:39:44Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2410.13763v4","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:39:44Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2410.13763","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:39:44Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"6F2R7WLD7UIL","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:39:44Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"6F2R7WLD7UILIM7T","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:39:44Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"6F2R7WLD","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:39:44Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:bd72c334fc998b16af03a9071e31e7db5f0bb5eea029882303e6b1cf76dab50a","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:39:44Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2410.13763/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Hydroelectricity accounted for roughly 61.4% of Brazil's total generation in 2024 and addressed most of the intermittency of wind and solar generation. Thus, inflow forecasting plays a critical role in the operation, planning, and market in this country, as well as in any other hydro-dependent power system. These forecasts influence generation schedules, reservoir management, and market pricing, shaping the dynamics of the entire electricity sector. The objective of this paper is to measure and present empirical evidence of a systematic optimistic bias in the official inflow forecast methodolo","authors_text":"Alexandre Street, Arthur Brigatto, Cristiano Fernandes, Davi Valladao, Guilherme Bodin, Joaquim Dias Garcia","cross_cats":["cs.SY","stat.AP"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"eess.SY","submitted_at":"2024-10-17T16:59:07Z","title":"Assessing the Optimistic Bias in the Natural Inflow Forecasts: A Call for Model Monitoring in Brazil"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2410.13763","kind":"arxiv","version":4},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:85e5f476310fd28338a0ae612a475b3c7d6de115767ffabd30864011d11447d1","target":"record","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:39:44Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"91226ba36d7e9a18a796fe14229b665a3d98fd27c58ee0d1ad13ebe5f5cd7222","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.SY","stat.AP"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"eess.SY","submitted_at":"2024-10-17T16:59:07Z","title_canon_sha256":"22aa7407c53db42438ad2b00cdae706c3dd93e894ae26be641912675ff8819c0"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2410.13763","kind":"arxiv","version":4}},"canonical_sha256":"f1751fd963fd10b433f377307e435832b764b8eef5c6a78be4a3411b81c24843","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"f1751fd963fd10b433f377307e435832b764b8eef5c6a78be4a3411b81c24843","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T11:39:44.182306Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T11:39:44.182306Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"ialaZuSECUNssJeojEB/yuCKT24l3J+eHSUBiU7QC4aLTwlLPuX3ifbEU5SZeewZ8auCb1NbsebAL6ZfLjXvDw==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-07-05T11:39:44.182821Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2410.13763","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":4}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:85e5f476310fd28338a0ae612a475b3c7d6de115767ffabd30864011d11447d1","sha256:bd72c334fc998b16af03a9071e31e7db5f0bb5eea029882303e6b1cf76dab50a"],"state_sha256":"21cac11768544a7cdd8bb212eafbb9540a297f4ec7b0b1544a8a19eeb81d9a35"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"NZd6W/aLvbqGll+4/pQg2SbWPiUOIS+RLv/60xifyVKPVcXGj5IigWQfmbkUYSWv7PTdoFMmZZfsNyazY4mLCA==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-07-13T19:33:54.798709Z","bundle_sha256":"0b3dd727894b63ac99fbd36def3169dd5a377ea0a44f821020f9a2a8abbca9e1"}}