{"record_type":"pith_number_record","schema_url":"https://pith.science/schemas/pith-number/v1.json","pith_number":"pith:2025:6NBCTLCRIJGRZJZU3VOJ7UC6TG","short_pith_number":"pith:6NBCTLCR","schema_version":"1.0","canonical_sha256":"f34229ac51424d1ca734dd5c9fd05e998c0d0a018611ebe189f96a08543e13f2","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"2512.07526","version":2},"attestation_state":"computed","paper":{"title":"The Suicide Region: Option Games and the Race to Artificial General Intelligence","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["econ.GN","q-fin.EC","q-fin.GN"],"primary_cat":"q-fin.RM","authors_text":"David Tan","submitted_at":"2025-12-08T13:00:23Z","abstract_excerpt":"Standard real options theory predicts delay in exercising the option to invest or deploy when extreme asset volatility or technological uncertainty are present. However, in the current race to develop artificial general intelligence (AGI), sovereign actors are exhibiting behaviors contrary to theoretical predictions: the US and China are accelerating AI investment despite acknowledging the potential for catastrophic failure from AGI misalignment. We resolve this puzzle by formalizing the AGI race as a continuous-time preemption game with endogenous existential risk. In our model, the cost of f"},"verification_status":{"content_addressed":true,"pith_receipt":true,"author_attested":false,"weak_author_claims":0,"strong_author_claims":0,"externally_anchored":false,"storage_verified":false,"citation_signatures":0,"replication_records":0,"graph_snapshot":true,"references_resolved":false,"formal_links_present":false},"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2512.07526","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-fin.RM","submitted_at":"2025-12-08T13:00:23Z","cross_cats_sorted":["econ.GN","q-fin.EC","q-fin.GN"],"title_canon_sha256":"219945f41e4553e19c16e4472217d5149f7ee25018eec9ebbf156d6b769f6af8","abstract_canon_sha256":"0cded5e9d3028abed22a9d6a105b49ee3fa09732c61b71acd49aafe133473aaa"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-20T00:05:38.898699Z","signature_b64":"iSrKMWs1PY2iyytLg7SIESwjOnzvPnF382drgRkk8899RtZlp3GTcJL4+PXi2HlagyRvnwbSdSP6pLZ7YraJCQ==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"f34229ac51424d1ca734dd5c9fd05e998c0d0a018611ebe189f96a08543e13f2","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-20T00:05:38.897845Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-20T00:05:38.897845Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"The Suicide Region: Option Games and the Race to Artificial General Intelligence","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["econ.GN","q-fin.EC","q-fin.GN"],"primary_cat":"q-fin.RM","authors_text":"David Tan","submitted_at":"2025-12-08T13:00:23Z","abstract_excerpt":"Standard real options theory predicts delay in exercising the option to invest or deploy when extreme asset volatility or technological uncertainty are present. However, in the current race to develop artificial general intelligence (AGI), sovereign actors are exhibiting behaviors contrary to theoretical predictions: the US and China are accelerating AI investment despite acknowledging the potential for catastrophic failure from AGI misalignment. We resolve this puzzle by formalizing the AGI race as a continuous-time preemption game with endogenous existential risk. In our model, the cost of f"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2512.07526","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2512.07526/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2512.07526","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:05:38.897989+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2512.07526v2","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:05:38.897989+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2512.07526","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:05:38.897989+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"6NBCTLCRIJGR","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:05:38.897989+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"6NBCTLCRIJGRZJZU","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:05:38.897989+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"6NBCTLCR","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:05:38.897989+00:00"}],"events":[],"event_summary":{},"paper_claims":[],"inbound_citations":{"count":0,"internal_anchor_count":0,"sample":[]},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"sample":[],"anchors":[]},"links":{"html":"https://pith.science/pith/6NBCTLCRIJGRZJZU3VOJ7UC6TG","json":"https://pith.science/pith/6NBCTLCRIJGRZJZU3VOJ7UC6TG.json","graph_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/6NBCTLCRIJGRZJZU3VOJ7UC6TG/graph.json","events_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/6NBCTLCRIJGRZJZU3VOJ7UC6TG/events.json","paper":"https://pith.science/paper/6NBCTLCR"},"agent_actions":{"view_html":"https://pith.science/pith/6NBCTLCRIJGRZJZU3VOJ7UC6TG","download_json":"https://pith.science/pith/6NBCTLCRIJGRZJZU3VOJ7UC6TG.json","view_paper":"https://pith.science/paper/6NBCTLCR","resolve_alias":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/resolve?arxiv=2512.07526&json=true","fetch_graph":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/6NBCTLCRIJGRZJZU3VOJ7UC6TG/graph.json","fetch_events":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/6NBCTLCRIJGRZJZU3VOJ7UC6TG/events.json","actions":{"anchor_timestamp":"https://pith.science/pith/6NBCTLCRIJGRZJZU3VOJ7UC6TG/action/timestamp_anchor","attest_storage":"https://pith.science/pith/6NBCTLCRIJGRZJZU3VOJ7UC6TG/action/storage_attestation","attest_author":"https://pith.science/pith/6NBCTLCRIJGRZJZU3VOJ7UC6TG/action/author_attestation","sign_citation":"https://pith.science/pith/6NBCTLCRIJGRZJZU3VOJ7UC6TG/action/citation_signature","submit_replication":"https://pith.science/pith/6NBCTLCRIJGRZJZU3VOJ7UC6TG/action/replication_record"}},"created_at":"2026-05-20T00:05:38.897989+00:00","updated_at":"2026-05-20T00:05:38.897989+00:00"}