{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2026:7FXXXAKXSXVHJLFV72I4O5C67D","short_pith_number":"pith:7FXXXAKX","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2602.13872","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2026-02-14T20:17:51Z","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.ML"],"title_canon_sha256":"c6f3e285499270a9a1683837f1c7039f95878ef384680514952562c97a7b854c","abstract_canon_sha256":"8d4dd97be79c559df8672bf74b70bbc043b0157f53f9814c1e932dc72b997b59"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"f96f7b815795ea74acb5fe91c7745ef8dbbb5e585ab58075508a9993c50584d3","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"2602.13872","version":2},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2602.13872","created_at":"2026-07-13T01:18:02Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2602.13872v2","created_at":"2026-07-13T01:18:02Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2602.13872","created_at":"2026-07-13T01:18:02Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"7FXXXAKXSXVH","created_at":"2026-07-13T01:18:02Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"7FXXXAKXSXVHJLFV","created_at":"2026-07-13T01:18:02Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"7FXXXAKX","created_at":"2026-07-13T01:18:02Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2026:7FXXXAKXSXVHJLFV72I4O5C67D","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2602.13872","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2026-02-14T20:17:51Z","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.ML"],"title_canon_sha256":"c6f3e285499270a9a1683837f1c7039f95878ef384680514952562c97a7b854c","abstract_canon_sha256":"8d4dd97be79c559df8672bf74b70bbc043b0157f53f9814c1e932dc72b997b59"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"f96f7b815795ea74acb5fe91c7745ef8dbbb5e585ab58075508a9993c50584d3","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-07-13T01:18:02.651981Z","signature_b64":"iBrCvj2TJeWCGlfass5MoftJ7bn7l6mcIPK0Br+/Oe9b+fxTRlaHvQrTxMRRb/7V0cOzda0CL2bJIr8o2s64AQ==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"f96f7b815795ea74acb5fe91c7745ef8dbbb5e585ab58075508a9993c50584d3","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-13T01:18:02.650201Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-07-13T01:18:02.650201Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"2602.13872","source_version":2,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-13T01:18:02Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"G9KwKGxAaIC4GCVQ6ggJFZFZQpQVGWiwxsZkiCINLDGK7GSRCZ0oHEtnNFBq2NVHhU/6ycU6pX/AbqOOKR6uAg==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-14T00:59:12.923234Z"},"content_sha256":"5fe86d10a05e4110f3f396abb66b1e0d572b74c5588687f13f83fc2281a3fe74","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:5fe86d10a05e4110f3f396abb66b1e0d572b74c5588687f13f83fc2281a3fe74"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2026:7FXXXAKXSXVHJLFV72I4O5C67D","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Predicting fixed-sample test decisions enables anytime-valid inference","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["stat.ML"],"primary_cat":"stat.ME","authors_text":"Chris Holmes, Stephen Walker","submitted_at":"2026-02-14T20:17:51Z","abstract_excerpt":"Statistical hypothesis tests typically use prespecified sample sizes, yet data often arrive sequentially. Interim analyses invalidate classical error guarantees, while existing sequential methods require rigid testing preschedules or incur substantial losses in statistical power. We introduce a simple procedure that transforms any fixed-sample hypothesis test into an anytime-valid test while ensuring Type-I error control and near-optimal power with substantial sample savings when the null hypothesis is false. At each step, the procedure predicts the probability that a classical test would reje"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2602.13872","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2602.13872/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-13T01:18:02Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"TFsd6tjx+UC36xq8ugxfYhVlRFPg/Hg29BJDnqwp+yFL89P6YTWdm1ijI5/kflI7UVvH1h2Aq76M2umabDQNBw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-14T00:59:12.923843Z"},"content_sha256":"9fed07c257ffd464a05bd7d8a2854bafd5c4ad958286ab8a4aca1820fa1ee04e","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:9fed07c257ffd464a05bd7d8a2854bafd5c4ad958286ab8a4aca1820fa1ee04e"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/7FXXXAKXSXVHJLFV72I4O5C67D/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/7FXXXAKXSXVHJLFV72I4O5C67D/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/7FXXXAKXSXVHJLFV72I4O5C67D/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-08-14T00:59:12Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/7FXXXAKXSXVHJLFV72I4O5C67D","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/7FXXXAKXSXVHJLFV72I4O5C67D/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/7FXXXAKXSXVHJLFV72I4O5C67D/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/7FXXXAKXSXVHJLFV72I4O5C67D/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2026:7FXXXAKXSXVHJLFV72I4O5C67D","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"8d4dd97be79c559df8672bf74b70bbc043b0157f53f9814c1e932dc72b997b59","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.ML"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2026-02-14T20:17:51Z","title_canon_sha256":"c6f3e285499270a9a1683837f1c7039f95878ef384680514952562c97a7b854c"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2602.13872","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2602.13872","created_at":"2026-07-13T01:18:02Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2602.13872v2","created_at":"2026-07-13T01:18:02Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2602.13872","created_at":"2026-07-13T01:18:02Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"7FXXXAKXSXVH","created_at":"2026-07-13T01:18:02Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"7FXXXAKXSXVHJLFV","created_at":"2026-07-13T01:18:02Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"7FXXXAKX","created_at":"2026-07-13T01:18:02Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:9fed07c257ffd464a05bd7d8a2854bafd5c4ad958286ab8a4aca1820fa1ee04e","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-07-13T01:18:02Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2602.13872/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Statistical hypothesis tests typically use prespecified sample sizes, yet data often arrive sequentially. Interim analyses invalidate classical error guarantees, while existing sequential methods require rigid testing preschedules or incur substantial losses in statistical power. We introduce a simple procedure that transforms any fixed-sample hypothesis test into an anytime-valid test while ensuring Type-I error control and near-optimal power with substantial sample savings when the null hypothesis is false. At each step, the procedure predicts the probability that a classical test would reje","authors_text":"Chris Holmes, Stephen Walker","cross_cats":["stat.ML"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2026-02-14T20:17:51Z","title":"Predicting fixed-sample test decisions enables anytime-valid inference"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2602.13872","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:5fe86d10a05e4110f3f396abb66b1e0d572b74c5588687f13f83fc2281a3fe74","target":"record","created_at":"2026-07-13T01:18:02Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"8d4dd97be79c559df8672bf74b70bbc043b0157f53f9814c1e932dc72b997b59","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.ML"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2026-02-14T20:17:51Z","title_canon_sha256":"c6f3e285499270a9a1683837f1c7039f95878ef384680514952562c97a7b854c"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2602.13872","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"canonical_sha256":"f96f7b815795ea74acb5fe91c7745ef8dbbb5e585ab58075508a9993c50584d3","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"f96f7b815795ea74acb5fe91c7745ef8dbbb5e585ab58075508a9993c50584d3","first_computed_at":"2026-07-13T01:18:02.650201Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-13T01:18:02.650201Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"iBrCvj2TJeWCGlfass5MoftJ7bn7l6mcIPK0Br+/Oe9b+fxTRlaHvQrTxMRRb/7V0cOzda0CL2bJIr8o2s64AQ==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-07-13T01:18:02.651981Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2602.13872","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":2}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:5fe86d10a05e4110f3f396abb66b1e0d572b74c5588687f13f83fc2281a3fe74","sha256:9fed07c257ffd464a05bd7d8a2854bafd5c4ad958286ab8a4aca1820fa1ee04e"],"state_sha256":"ed0a7afcf73e136c5bf5403d2f7307b98cdd7b8af905a1ab0eaebda6f2046f13"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"ZwYDkC9AEnFzNn74Bde6+cFTc05acCL66U8ZuLqG/Om3DzF7izpi38W8Px1EAB67n9twRmOTJb/jtEP7LpEiCw==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-14T00:59:12.987300Z","bundle_sha256":"8a0816fec89aa8d1d655af32f0a41297c90f11369e4b19230ca86bb106a929a7"}}