{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2022:7PIJHZANSY4A6XZZ6OE6ZXUFOE","short_pith_number":"pith:7PIJHZAN","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2212.03471","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"econ.EM","submitted_at":"2022-12-07T05:41:04Z","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.AP","stat.ME"],"title_canon_sha256":"11ffd6795d6850c8fc41ab3491c85bf8976573a6106ca4863addbaa1c65f934f","abstract_canon_sha256":"bd655390c3e37a06ffc633ff7f5947ad459635374ec933f818f4fda48905624d"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"fbd093e40d96380f5f39f389ecde85712df2a23df03e4557ef26f61e9d48276a","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"2212.03471","version":2},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2212.03471","created_at":"2026-07-05T06:35:46Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2212.03471v2","created_at":"2026-07-05T06:35:46Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2212.03471","created_at":"2026-07-05T06:35:46Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"7PIJHZANSY4A","created_at":"2026-07-05T06:35:46Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"7PIJHZANSY4A6XZZ","created_at":"2026-07-05T06:35:46Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"7PIJHZAN","created_at":"2026-07-05T06:35:46Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2022:7PIJHZANSY4A6XZZ6OE6ZXUFOE","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2212.03471","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"econ.EM","submitted_at":"2022-12-07T05:41:04Z","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.AP","stat.ME"],"title_canon_sha256":"11ffd6795d6850c8fc41ab3491c85bf8976573a6106ca4863addbaa1c65f934f","abstract_canon_sha256":"bd655390c3e37a06ffc633ff7f5947ad459635374ec933f818f4fda48905624d"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"fbd093e40d96380f5f39f389ecde85712df2a23df03e4557ef26f61e9d48276a","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-07-05T06:35:46.840782Z","signature_b64":"F8Qecr4Ss++250YmpwfyF6lF0+ursfmybcxDF/nKlDMBKkC83ZHwBqOoJ8aFu1J6jy6QRNTRKM5K7GVhWlBcBg==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"fbd093e40d96380f5f39f389ecde85712df2a23df03e4557ef26f61e9d48276a","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T06:35:46.840286Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T06:35:46.840286Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"2212.03471","source_version":2,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-05T06:35:46Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"4FJ9AS5nhcqoZJvZ1i1BBk8IQ+0K+z8AelRMOvDC3LVc7XrdLFM6Ob2gfLEhRLdj3VKfmPvNfba77x0EzzB5Bg==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-17T17:43:44.421889Z"},"content_sha256":"bc34e0bafb1bef0ae3c51d47fa4cc2bc0308f3931a70929ccb36dd60789fd2ef","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:bc34e0bafb1bef0ae3c51d47fa4cc2bc0308f3931a70929ccb36dd60789fd2ef"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2022:7PIJHZANSY4A6XZZ6OE6ZXUFOE","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["stat.AP","stat.ME"],"primary_cat":"econ.EM","authors_text":"Anastasios Panagiotelis, David T. Frazier, Didier Nibbering, Florian Huber, Gael M. Martin, Gary Koop, John Maheu, Ruben Loaiza-Maya, Worapree Maneesoonthorn","submitted_at":"2022-12-07T05:41:04Z","abstract_excerpt":"The Bayesian statistical paradigm provides a principled and coherent approach to probabilistic forecasting. Uncertainty about all unknowns that characterize any forecasting problem -- model, parameters, latent states -- is able to be quantified explicitly, and factored into the forecast distribution via the process of integration or averaging. Allied with the elegance of the method, Bayesian forecasting is now underpinned by the burgeoning field of Bayesian computation, which enables Bayesian forecasts to be produced for virtually any problem, no matter how large, or complex. The current state"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2212.03471","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2212.03471/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-05T06:35:46Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"ARVbOegpeNfqReByUooKVyf65HKsigB8VIIpd5h7VYt2GCAyAHnrdhWd6/gBP9Y0YF6MAWmVLwnVL2S8ye2RCg==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-17T17:43:44.422889Z"},"content_sha256":"f53a1178b26bfb3d580025c78c5aa8f85ca0c50ace6fe744326e4cb199b5c2e9","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:f53a1178b26bfb3d580025c78c5aa8f85ca0c50ace6fe744326e4cb199b5c2e9"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/7PIJHZANSY4A6XZZ6OE6ZXUFOE/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/7PIJHZANSY4A6XZZ6OE6ZXUFOE/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/7PIJHZANSY4A6XZZ6OE6ZXUFOE/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-08-17T17:43:44Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/7PIJHZANSY4A6XZZ6OE6ZXUFOE","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/7PIJHZANSY4A6XZZ6OE6ZXUFOE/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/7PIJHZANSY4A6XZZ6OE6ZXUFOE/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/7PIJHZANSY4A6XZZ6OE6ZXUFOE/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2022:7PIJHZANSY4A6XZZ6OE6ZXUFOE","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"bd655390c3e37a06ffc633ff7f5947ad459635374ec933f818f4fda48905624d","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.AP","stat.ME"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"econ.EM","submitted_at":"2022-12-07T05:41:04Z","title_canon_sha256":"11ffd6795d6850c8fc41ab3491c85bf8976573a6106ca4863addbaa1c65f934f"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2212.03471","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2212.03471","created_at":"2026-07-05T06:35:46Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2212.03471v2","created_at":"2026-07-05T06:35:46Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2212.03471","created_at":"2026-07-05T06:35:46Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"7PIJHZANSY4A","created_at":"2026-07-05T06:35:46Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"7PIJHZANSY4A6XZZ","created_at":"2026-07-05T06:35:46Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"7PIJHZAN","created_at":"2026-07-05T06:35:46Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:f53a1178b26bfb3d580025c78c5aa8f85ca0c50ace6fe744326e4cb199b5c2e9","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-07-05T06:35:46Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2212.03471/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"The Bayesian statistical paradigm provides a principled and coherent approach to probabilistic forecasting. Uncertainty about all unknowns that characterize any forecasting problem -- model, parameters, latent states -- is able to be quantified explicitly, and factored into the forecast distribution via the process of integration or averaging. Allied with the elegance of the method, Bayesian forecasting is now underpinned by the burgeoning field of Bayesian computation, which enables Bayesian forecasts to be produced for virtually any problem, no matter how large, or complex. The current state","authors_text":"Anastasios Panagiotelis, David T. Frazier, Didier Nibbering, Florian Huber, Gael M. Martin, Gary Koop, John Maheu, Ruben Loaiza-Maya, Worapree Maneesoonthorn","cross_cats":["stat.AP","stat.ME"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"econ.EM","submitted_at":"2022-12-07T05:41:04Z","title":"Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2212.03471","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:bc34e0bafb1bef0ae3c51d47fa4cc2bc0308f3931a70929ccb36dd60789fd2ef","target":"record","created_at":"2026-07-05T06:35:46Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"bd655390c3e37a06ffc633ff7f5947ad459635374ec933f818f4fda48905624d","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.AP","stat.ME"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"econ.EM","submitted_at":"2022-12-07T05:41:04Z","title_canon_sha256":"11ffd6795d6850c8fc41ab3491c85bf8976573a6106ca4863addbaa1c65f934f"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2212.03471","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"canonical_sha256":"fbd093e40d96380f5f39f389ecde85712df2a23df03e4557ef26f61e9d48276a","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"fbd093e40d96380f5f39f389ecde85712df2a23df03e4557ef26f61e9d48276a","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T06:35:46.840286Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T06:35:46.840286Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"F8Qecr4Ss++250YmpwfyF6lF0+ursfmybcxDF/nKlDMBKkC83ZHwBqOoJ8aFu1J6jy6QRNTRKM5K7GVhWlBcBg==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-07-05T06:35:46.840782Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2212.03471","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":2}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:bc34e0bafb1bef0ae3c51d47fa4cc2bc0308f3931a70929ccb36dd60789fd2ef","sha256:f53a1178b26bfb3d580025c78c5aa8f85ca0c50ace6fe744326e4cb199b5c2e9"],"state_sha256":"cdd314ec754ce6f669089a9d8e36062fda715c3be47030a36aefa60fe7fdd9f4"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"IekK9MeByQVvdWuQXvH0SbHRvrW088QjCriCGBNF7HhoQbOYKrCdBY/w9kSkZYKgRQG2WicUiblEraj6EIHCAA==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-17T17:43:44.429846Z","bundle_sha256":"e7e7a57680b93ac1737ca993940049267aca6ef8ce9e4560a298398b88d09bb6"}}