{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2019:7T4OWJMRK4AC3NG2C5GHLAXGLJ","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"b1d36e4758d0eb8c4c0b5bb2a5030cb49e7e5165392abbad3641df36aeaaeb12","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2019-05-09T03:13:54Z","title_canon_sha256":"eaa71a3325273f01cf5a2c6808a6594177fea4e7dcb69522fd013244ec75e290"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1905.03426","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1905.03426","created_at":"2026-07-05T06:17:35Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1905.03426v2","created_at":"2026-07-05T06:17:35Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1905.03426","created_at":"2026-07-05T06:17:35Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"7T4OWJMRK4AC","created_at":"2026-07-05T06:17:35Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"7T4OWJMRK4AC3NG2","created_at":"2026-07-05T06:17:35Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"7T4OWJMR","created_at":"2026-07-05T06:17:35Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:78b29bfe604d36b4df4c343897409076f5d405b96be4b2d981931a0f92299829","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-07-05T06:17:35Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/1905.03426/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"In this paper, we investigate the reasons that the Bayesian estimator of the tail probability is always higher than the frequentist estimator. Sufficient conditions for this phenomenon are established both by using Jensen's Inequality and by looking at Taylor series approximations, both of which point to the convexity of the distribution function.","authors_text":"B\\'arbara Gonz\\'alez, Luis Ra\\'ul Pericchi, Nan Shen","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2019-05-09T03:13:54Z","title":"Comparison Between Bayesian and Frequentist Tail Probability Estimates"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1905.03426","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:85cc1a67c5906dbdd1ade8caeb7988675bea10cccbbe06dfc38cc3119f775149","target":"record","created_at":"2026-07-05T06:17:35Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"b1d36e4758d0eb8c4c0b5bb2a5030cb49e7e5165392abbad3641df36aeaaeb12","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2019-05-09T03:13:54Z","title_canon_sha256":"eaa71a3325273f01cf5a2c6808a6594177fea4e7dcb69522fd013244ec75e290"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1905.03426","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"canonical_sha256":"fcf8eb259157002db4da174c7582e65a6ea75e7a33da2946ece3a0c1105fcaae","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"fcf8eb259157002db4da174c7582e65a6ea75e7a33da2946ece3a0c1105fcaae","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T06:17:35.123307Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T06:17:35.123307Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"26fyFG9c+jsrDF2CfWI/gx2hZGfFeJB3HlIsfSjZoAhxomnSrGHH3V0iJ+T6Au0qdivZsfJirq3tB5LzU3W+AA==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-07-05T06:17:35.123831Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1905.03426","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":2}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:85cc1a67c5906dbdd1ade8caeb7988675bea10cccbbe06dfc38cc3119f775149","sha256:78b29bfe604d36b4df4c343897409076f5d405b96be4b2d981931a0f92299829"],"state_sha256":"4f6a3c36a57e487b80498a3ad862a2cb21bc4fb227b7f2cc5bf5074979977e90"}