{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2012:AHNAB4EO56ISA7QPOWSIHWEOCK","short_pith_number":"pith:AHNAB4EO","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1207.4561","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.data-an","submitted_at":"2012-07-19T06:30:55Z","cross_cats_sorted":["physics.soc-ph"],"title_canon_sha256":"ac14a2f1d92c083943bd8af0e2fa55cb035ea14965d6d810504e860650ecc65c","abstract_canon_sha256":"61ea83d5d02cb965a48c2bbc39adb10d7067631dfbbc71fa7485a2362e70b1a6"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"01da00f08eef91207e0f75a483d88e12a2214ab128dd548f34a3b82f95c865e1","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1207.4561","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1207.4561","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:50:36Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1207.4561v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:50:36Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1207.4561","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:50:36Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"AHNAB4EO56IS","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:58Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"AHNAB4EO56ISA7QP","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:58Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"AHNAB4EO","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:58Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2012:AHNAB4EO56ISA7QPOWSIHWEOCK","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1207.4561","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.data-an","submitted_at":"2012-07-19T06:30:55Z","cross_cats_sorted":["physics.soc-ph"],"title_canon_sha256":"ac14a2f1d92c083943bd8af0e2fa55cb035ea14965d6d810504e860650ecc65c","abstract_canon_sha256":"61ea83d5d02cb965a48c2bbc39adb10d7067631dfbbc71fa7485a2362e70b1a6"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"01da00f08eef91207e0f75a483d88e12a2214ab128dd548f34a3b82f95c865e1","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T03:50:36.672047Z","signature_b64":"W56h/qztXtjMSoZzesEmL0+lYBDYiEUhDVOFlKQ5GFliF1kBh8k4ZypGrDaLLYKtlK1XWPbFwRB+YEZhyICFAw==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"01da00f08eef91207e0f75a483d88e12a2214ab128dd548f34a3b82f95c865e1","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T03:50:36.671473Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T03:50:36.671473Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1207.4561","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T03:50:36Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"nU7zWsK89LNWCILobs9C9z7rb98wsYpHIc1rW1QVCj7BHVrUvh/phfufWlxGaH89CuXF2pjo1K6iSHPZF2XgAw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-09T05:40:09.541526Z"},"content_sha256":"133237e66a06e6ee3b58d2c1ab2d703fed22c54b6aa0ad8fb59ed1be2b0a75e5","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:133237e66a06e6ee3b58d2c1ab2d703fed22c54b6aa0ad8fb59ed1be2b0a75e5"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2012:AHNAB4EO56ISA7QPOWSIHWEOCK","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Towards the perfect prediction of soccer matches","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["physics.soc-ph"],"primary_cat":"physics.data-an","authors_text":"Andreas Heuer, Oliver Rubner","submitted_at":"2012-07-19T06:30:55Z","abstract_excerpt":"We present a systematic approach to the prediction of soccer matches. First, we show that the information about chances for goals is by far more informative than about the actual results. Second, we present a multivariate regression approach and show how the prediction quality increases with increasing information content. This prediction quality can be explicitly expressed in terms of just two parameters. Third, by disentangling the systematic and random components of soccer matches we can identify the optimum level of predictability. These concepts are exemplified for the German Bundesliga."},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1207.4561","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T03:50:36Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"t984rX/jxA6Aqjlg3GXH+SuZUDsfYp7zppoIDzlcoYUHLj9r2852cKAfM1X7+3MbV/UaMWB7VJxvizD3JZ4ABA==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-09T05:40:09.542199Z"},"content_sha256":"143f45a68017424435f1fcea0028f213d266b854b40819a39d1181a27bf44e43","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:143f45a68017424435f1fcea0028f213d266b854b40819a39d1181a27bf44e43"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/AHNAB4EO56ISA7QPOWSIHWEOCK/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/AHNAB4EO56ISA7QPOWSIHWEOCK/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/AHNAB4EO56ISA7QPOWSIHWEOCK/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-09T05:40:09Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/AHNAB4EO56ISA7QPOWSIHWEOCK","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/AHNAB4EO56ISA7QPOWSIHWEOCK/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/AHNAB4EO56ISA7QPOWSIHWEOCK/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/AHNAB4EO56ISA7QPOWSIHWEOCK/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2012:AHNAB4EO56ISA7QPOWSIHWEOCK","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"61ea83d5d02cb965a48c2bbc39adb10d7067631dfbbc71fa7485a2362e70b1a6","cross_cats_sorted":["physics.soc-ph"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.data-an","submitted_at":"2012-07-19T06:30:55Z","title_canon_sha256":"ac14a2f1d92c083943bd8af0e2fa55cb035ea14965d6d810504e860650ecc65c"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1207.4561","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1207.4561","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:50:36Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1207.4561v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:50:36Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1207.4561","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:50:36Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"AHNAB4EO56IS","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:58Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"AHNAB4EO56ISA7QP","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:58Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"AHNAB4EO","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:58Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:143f45a68017424435f1fcea0028f213d266b854b40819a39d1181a27bf44e43","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:50:36Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"We present a systematic approach to the prediction of soccer matches. First, we show that the information about chances for goals is by far more informative than about the actual results. Second, we present a multivariate regression approach and show how the prediction quality increases with increasing information content. This prediction quality can be explicitly expressed in terms of just two parameters. Third, by disentangling the systematic and random components of soccer matches we can identify the optimum level of predictability. These concepts are exemplified for the German Bundesliga.","authors_text":"Andreas Heuer, Oliver Rubner","cross_cats":["physics.soc-ph"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.data-an","submitted_at":"2012-07-19T06:30:55Z","title":"Towards the perfect prediction of soccer matches"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1207.4561","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:133237e66a06e6ee3b58d2c1ab2d703fed22c54b6aa0ad8fb59ed1be2b0a75e5","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:50:36Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"61ea83d5d02cb965a48c2bbc39adb10d7067631dfbbc71fa7485a2362e70b1a6","cross_cats_sorted":["physics.soc-ph"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.data-an","submitted_at":"2012-07-19T06:30:55Z","title_canon_sha256":"ac14a2f1d92c083943bd8af0e2fa55cb035ea14965d6d810504e860650ecc65c"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1207.4561","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"01da00f08eef91207e0f75a483d88e12a2214ab128dd548f34a3b82f95c865e1","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"01da00f08eef91207e0f75a483d88e12a2214ab128dd548f34a3b82f95c865e1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T03:50:36.671473Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T03:50:36.671473Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"W56h/qztXtjMSoZzesEmL0+lYBDYiEUhDVOFlKQ5GFliF1kBh8k4ZypGrDaLLYKtlK1XWPbFwRB+YEZhyICFAw==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T03:50:36.672047Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1207.4561","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:133237e66a06e6ee3b58d2c1ab2d703fed22c54b6aa0ad8fb59ed1be2b0a75e5","sha256:143f45a68017424435f1fcea0028f213d266b854b40819a39d1181a27bf44e43"],"state_sha256":"405c97fe624aefef6c6c325147ac0185e46b0bd5fd469fbf00deef0596a4712f"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"aFkdK9Li6X6uQqhHyzYic1Wym++idHwqBK6GLLDqpAmIWp0pLnaZf/wej12LkFWVoWlelkI+8iGe67v7JNbNDw==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-09T05:40:09.545938Z","bundle_sha256":"1e22401ab4a75eb7a753ebd9349e2c8a0eeddd67ce10cd13e2380c8af56f6488"}}