{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2017:AVAYRB2VW2ZMGZAXDVVAJ7RZRO","short_pith_number":"pith:AVAYRB2V","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1710.02838","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-fin.EC","submitted_at":"2017-10-08T14:56:12Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"2f3952e7f2a2b25dc32bc20557ebe688e33ed4ed19db70a8cfb193f0a330a81f","abstract_canon_sha256":"a936c90bee9884242ead058a9748cade4deded67a40eec5b1e3b503c726b92d5"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"0541888755b6b2c364171d6a04fe398b850c2f2d87f0bbb59b4f359f506e0d21","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1710.02838","version":3},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1710.02838","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:23:52Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1710.02838v3","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:23:52Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1710.02838","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:23:52Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"AVAYRB2VW2ZM","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:08Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"AVAYRB2VW2ZMGZAX","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:08Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"AVAYRB2V","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:08Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2017:AVAYRB2VW2ZMGZAXDVVAJ7RZRO","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1710.02838","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-fin.EC","submitted_at":"2017-10-08T14:56:12Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"2f3952e7f2a2b25dc32bc20557ebe688e33ed4ed19db70a8cfb193f0a330a81f","abstract_canon_sha256":"a936c90bee9884242ead058a9748cade4deded67a40eec5b1e3b503c726b92d5"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"0541888755b6b2c364171d6a04fe398b850c2f2d87f0bbb59b4f359f506e0d21","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T00:23:52.847355Z","signature_b64":"mvcacrrR82yT931vmPmX+503jkOUMqQEVN/fJG4g7AecXWcF/63j7PwTzU09GdSagvVIUaiezit4qjIf962kCw==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"0541888755b6b2c364171d6a04fe398b850c2f2d87f0bbb59b4f359f506e0d21","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T00:23:52.846607Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T00:23:52.846607Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1710.02838","source_version":3,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T00:23:52Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"53AJ4dLXwLa0JUEr9rQevzRfZ4SvU95Nynk27tq0rhK8bR/A3FraGb6ZMzLZ334Lvj4+EC5Is9Tu6ZpisSdKAg==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-09T05:34:40.982627Z"},"content_sha256":"8977be57fc5a06cf328d0d36f7abb1e8a0aed6a8e97ff4689efa2757770510f2","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:8977be57fc5a06cf328d0d36f7abb1e8a0aed6a8e97ff4689efa2757770510f2"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2017:AVAYRB2VW2ZMGZAXDVVAJ7RZRO","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Robust Forecast Aggregation","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"q-fin.EC","authors_text":"Itai Areili, Rann Smorodinsky, Yakov Babichenko","submitted_at":"2017-10-08T14:56:12Z","abstract_excerpt":"Bayesian experts who are exposed to different evidence often make contradictory probabilistic forecasts. An aggregator, ignorant of the underlying model, uses this to calculate her own forecast. We use the notions of scoring rules and regret to propose a natural way to evaluate an aggregation scheme. We focus on a binary state space and construct low regret aggregation schemes whenever there are only two experts which are either Blackwell-ordered or receive conditionally i.i.d. signals. In contrast, if there are many experts with conditionally i.i.d. signals, then no scheme performs (asymptoti"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1710.02838","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T00:23:52Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"jEW10SQo79XYlDZTEXyzLH95YryYqLOE1FWRc4W4BXk1IFVctRXRqWgRnc4ISsaNaxJX6DhUJKiTR0gAOjaXDA==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-09T05:34:40.983250Z"},"content_sha256":"ae0d5db4a57bc15183635b5b04286c98b3db2c0e08c8eef66004f7872a0e5b1a","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:ae0d5db4a57bc15183635b5b04286c98b3db2c0e08c8eef66004f7872a0e5b1a"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/AVAYRB2VW2ZMGZAXDVVAJ7RZRO/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/AVAYRB2VW2ZMGZAXDVVAJ7RZRO/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/AVAYRB2VW2ZMGZAXDVVAJ7RZRO/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-09T05:34:40Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/AVAYRB2VW2ZMGZAXDVVAJ7RZRO","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/AVAYRB2VW2ZMGZAXDVVAJ7RZRO/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/AVAYRB2VW2ZMGZAXDVVAJ7RZRO/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/AVAYRB2VW2ZMGZAXDVVAJ7RZRO/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2017:AVAYRB2VW2ZMGZAXDVVAJ7RZRO","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"a936c90bee9884242ead058a9748cade4deded67a40eec5b1e3b503c726b92d5","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-fin.EC","submitted_at":"2017-10-08T14:56:12Z","title_canon_sha256":"2f3952e7f2a2b25dc32bc20557ebe688e33ed4ed19db70a8cfb193f0a330a81f"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1710.02838","kind":"arxiv","version":3}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1710.02838","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:23:52Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1710.02838v3","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:23:52Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1710.02838","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:23:52Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"AVAYRB2VW2ZM","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:08Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"AVAYRB2VW2ZMGZAX","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:08Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"AVAYRB2V","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:08Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:ae0d5db4a57bc15183635b5b04286c98b3db2c0e08c8eef66004f7872a0e5b1a","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:23:52Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Bayesian experts who are exposed to different evidence often make contradictory probabilistic forecasts. An aggregator, ignorant of the underlying model, uses this to calculate her own forecast. We use the notions of scoring rules and regret to propose a natural way to evaluate an aggregation scheme. We focus on a binary state space and construct low regret aggregation schemes whenever there are only two experts which are either Blackwell-ordered or receive conditionally i.i.d. signals. In contrast, if there are many experts with conditionally i.i.d. signals, then no scheme performs (asymptoti","authors_text":"Itai Areili, Rann Smorodinsky, Yakov Babichenko","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-fin.EC","submitted_at":"2017-10-08T14:56:12Z","title":"Robust Forecast Aggregation"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1710.02838","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:8977be57fc5a06cf328d0d36f7abb1e8a0aed6a8e97ff4689efa2757770510f2","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:23:52Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"a936c90bee9884242ead058a9748cade4deded67a40eec5b1e3b503c726b92d5","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-fin.EC","submitted_at":"2017-10-08T14:56:12Z","title_canon_sha256":"2f3952e7f2a2b25dc32bc20557ebe688e33ed4ed19db70a8cfb193f0a330a81f"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1710.02838","kind":"arxiv","version":3}},"canonical_sha256":"0541888755b6b2c364171d6a04fe398b850c2f2d87f0bbb59b4f359f506e0d21","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"0541888755b6b2c364171d6a04fe398b850c2f2d87f0bbb59b4f359f506e0d21","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T00:23:52.846607Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T00:23:52.846607Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"mvcacrrR82yT931vmPmX+503jkOUMqQEVN/fJG4g7AecXWcF/63j7PwTzU09GdSagvVIUaiezit4qjIf962kCw==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T00:23:52.847355Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1710.02838","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":3}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:8977be57fc5a06cf328d0d36f7abb1e8a0aed6a8e97ff4689efa2757770510f2","sha256:ae0d5db4a57bc15183635b5b04286c98b3db2c0e08c8eef66004f7872a0e5b1a"],"state_sha256":"4b5e98133cd806d52b04fc46eee9753caac39f3dbf494612e8b91693f67b70fe"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"BwoULnx8JenjyRmCceyJgaQ7sTzNEiiCFy4jaZQAHvrdhbmfCTR68gO5cC3OfbJhRhL2ucasm5ApmZ8ktQ0mBg==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-09T05:34:40.986960Z","bundle_sha256":"9807440c3fbec6b14e0ed3050b49a0bddf6a1a7e940ab7aaa331f1105272e5a1"}}