{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2013:BCPIGCBYAF43FQ5Z3SPSDYL2ZT","short_pith_number":"pith:BCPIGCBY","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1310.6904","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2013-10-25T13:14:08Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"41e1b5cbeddd8b0768f14af4b49723465a362374643dc89e3d1c71afa7da191d","abstract_canon_sha256":"3b79735eb7984a2263459b06ed88e5267abb9ec5ff0694f5de62256a83346b1c"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"089e8308380179b2c3b9dc9f21e17acce9d6976c6029abb758bb986bcd9296ef","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1310.6904","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1310.6904","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1310.6904v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1310.6904","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"BCPIGCBYAF43","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:38Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"BCPIGCBYAF43FQ5Z","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:38Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"BCPIGCBY","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:38Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2013:BCPIGCBYAF43FQ5Z3SPSDYL2ZT","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1310.6904","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2013-10-25T13:14:08Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"41e1b5cbeddd8b0768f14af4b49723465a362374643dc89e3d1c71afa7da191d","abstract_canon_sha256":"3b79735eb7984a2263459b06ed88e5267abb9ec5ff0694f5de62256a83346b1c"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"089e8308380179b2c3b9dc9f21e17acce9d6976c6029abb758bb986bcd9296ef","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:56.753486Z","signature_b64":"VWgXw45H8a3XTHH/KgZV9RS6F1ECIKUN+fsVSm9e8qyDKcJpPzdxwBZeJkkSrL5MJe36tKyJl6hfq39Obs5EDQ==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"089e8308380179b2c3b9dc9f21e17acce9d6976c6029abb758bb986bcd9296ef","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:56.752669Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:56.752669Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1310.6904","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:56Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"BG9Et/ZBygOQbq6fXweklE7H9GHfyA9HmrQGGsAp8XmqBZEXNaBJUsMqpdB5/t3qQhoJgYTfB3apyQk7iNr3Dw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-02T20:45:51.699388Z"},"content_sha256":"d8f0a1bd31ac82a2b31b6982d2096d5522c1c4bb4902a3824d30702fef6a85e7","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:d8f0a1bd31ac82a2b31b6982d2096d5522c1c4bb4902a3824d30702fef6a85e7"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2013:BCPIGCBYAF43FQ5Z3SPSDYL2ZT","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Probabilistic Forecasts of Solar Irradiance by Stochastic Differential Equations","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"Emil B. Iversen, Henrik Madsen, Jan K. M{\\o}ller, Juan M. Morales","submitted_at":"2013-10-25T13:14:08Z","abstract_excerpt":"Probabilistic forecasts of renewable energy production provide users with valuable information about the uncertainty associated with the expected generation. Current state-of-the-art forecasts for solar irradiance have focused on producing reliable \\emph{point} forecasts. The additional information included in probabilistic forecasts may be paramount for decision makers to efficiently make use of this uncertain and variable generation. In this paper, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) framework for modeling the uncertainty associated with the solar irradiance point forecast is proposed. "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1310.6904","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:56Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"Ufqp7yEa4H3fPj8N6r2PzEiCXv7yAxB4LVxJtsvJ7ml4SwqU8cP2mQFbXstfet4PoijNSNhR3S14pwhSTTRmAw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-02T20:45:51.699763Z"},"content_sha256":"b7531163a50f01dcbef1514f8beeff3b1705042223d2b197904bbb02371f6a7d","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:b7531163a50f01dcbef1514f8beeff3b1705042223d2b197904bbb02371f6a7d"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/BCPIGCBYAF43FQ5Z3SPSDYL2ZT/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/BCPIGCBYAF43FQ5Z3SPSDYL2ZT/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/BCPIGCBYAF43FQ5Z3SPSDYL2ZT/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-02T20:45:51Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/BCPIGCBYAF43FQ5Z3SPSDYL2ZT","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/BCPIGCBYAF43FQ5Z3SPSDYL2ZT/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/BCPIGCBYAF43FQ5Z3SPSDYL2ZT/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/BCPIGCBYAF43FQ5Z3SPSDYL2ZT/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2013:BCPIGCBYAF43FQ5Z3SPSDYL2ZT","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"3b79735eb7984a2263459b06ed88e5267abb9ec5ff0694f5de62256a83346b1c","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2013-10-25T13:14:08Z","title_canon_sha256":"41e1b5cbeddd8b0768f14af4b49723465a362374643dc89e3d1c71afa7da191d"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1310.6904","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1310.6904","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1310.6904v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1310.6904","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"BCPIGCBYAF43","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:38Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"BCPIGCBYAF43FQ5Z","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:38Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"BCPIGCBY","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:38Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:b7531163a50f01dcbef1514f8beeff3b1705042223d2b197904bbb02371f6a7d","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:56Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Probabilistic forecasts of renewable energy production provide users with valuable information about the uncertainty associated with the expected generation. Current state-of-the-art forecasts for solar irradiance have focused on producing reliable \\emph{point} forecasts. The additional information included in probabilistic forecasts may be paramount for decision makers to efficiently make use of this uncertain and variable generation. In this paper, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) framework for modeling the uncertainty associated with the solar irradiance point forecast is proposed. ","authors_text":"Emil B. Iversen, Henrik Madsen, Jan K. M{\\o}ller, Juan M. Morales","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2013-10-25T13:14:08Z","title":"Probabilistic Forecasts of Solar Irradiance by Stochastic Differential Equations"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1310.6904","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:d8f0a1bd31ac82a2b31b6982d2096d5522c1c4bb4902a3824d30702fef6a85e7","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:56Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"3b79735eb7984a2263459b06ed88e5267abb9ec5ff0694f5de62256a83346b1c","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2013-10-25T13:14:08Z","title_canon_sha256":"41e1b5cbeddd8b0768f14af4b49723465a362374643dc89e3d1c71afa7da191d"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1310.6904","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"089e8308380179b2c3b9dc9f21e17acce9d6976c6029abb758bb986bcd9296ef","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"089e8308380179b2c3b9dc9f21e17acce9d6976c6029abb758bb986bcd9296ef","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:56.752669Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:56.752669Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"VWgXw45H8a3XTHH/KgZV9RS6F1ECIKUN+fsVSm9e8qyDKcJpPzdxwBZeJkkSrL5MJe36tKyJl6hfq39Obs5EDQ==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:56.753486Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1310.6904","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:d8f0a1bd31ac82a2b31b6982d2096d5522c1c4bb4902a3824d30702fef6a85e7","sha256:b7531163a50f01dcbef1514f8beeff3b1705042223d2b197904bbb02371f6a7d"],"state_sha256":"476d6074812d5b9495e516cdaf648bb4d1f2d818e1569ddbda2d92715b205cda"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"r7GTVtn7zMRsyA4JIYQVzX/WNn2OCC+Aqfgc/HHn59AtHpN2HZMUXBWkpQ2tQzNdgFMGMF2dY0RGE1FMwoJmAA==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-02T20:45:51.701709Z","bundle_sha256":"9a513ea56762540966a03a156dac765f874e87c4b0ceabd2cfed370f27937925"}}