{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2026:D33FUMP34MABHKUI5AKJDJ3VJF","short_pith_number":"pith:D33FUMP3","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2605.17045","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/","primary_cat":"eess.SY","submitted_at":"2026-05-16T15:30:23Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG","cs.SY"],"title_canon_sha256":"4963a838ff49a2732a39725fc8a0d6a57358ad6b3735bb90cb3ac71564b173eb","abstract_canon_sha256":"56d60599a3e71ed8934d22f74b15d759457e70e32a9ee6c746325964207b7ee2"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"1ef65a31fbe30013aa88e81491a7754977eaf2151b0a4f8d20953157f2075a8b","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"2605.17045","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2605.17045","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:03:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2605.17045v1","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:03:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2605.17045","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:03:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"D33FUMP34MAB","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:03:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"D33FUMP34MABHKUI","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:03:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"D33FUMP3","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:03:37Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2026:D33FUMP34MABHKUI5AKJDJ3VJF","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2605.17045","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/","primary_cat":"eess.SY","submitted_at":"2026-05-16T15:30:23Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG","cs.SY"],"title_canon_sha256":"4963a838ff49a2732a39725fc8a0d6a57358ad6b3735bb90cb3ac71564b173eb","abstract_canon_sha256":"56d60599a3e71ed8934d22f74b15d759457e70e32a9ee6c746325964207b7ee2"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"1ef65a31fbe30013aa88e81491a7754977eaf2151b0a4f8d20953157f2075a8b","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-20T00:03:37.680671Z","signature_b64":"sOoKGszPxXvGj+5AtAPNio9D2lO8VvEKtxeqGsEnIEUn9QzxiJVxfH//hmSvaaVwF+oUlZozrNb6Lp8UJF35DQ==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"1ef65a31fbe30013aa88e81491a7754977eaf2151b0a4f8d20953157f2075a8b","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-20T00:03:37.679914Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-20T00:03:37.679914Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"2605.17045","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-20T00:03:37Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"gYabqc1Gg8OmrlARGQIycl+SGNY6sUUgc8uadJgJiQdBQKE3wm8xdbTXYsCycbPz7FRG05uxYlvaRRGv5SEiBQ==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-08T23:47:12.911734Z"},"content_sha256":"83ebbeb1e38c7f2c0c38833268fc496dffdb70b5a4ec89f197fc8d647abe1aa6","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:83ebbeb1e38c7f2c0c38833268fc496dffdb70b5a4ec89f197fc8d647abe1aa6"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2026:D33FUMP34MABHKUI5AKJDJ3VJF","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Empirical evaluation of Time Series Foundation Models for Day-ahead and Imbalance Electricity Price Forecasting in Belgium","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.LG","cs.SY"],"primary_cat":"eess.SY","authors_text":"Arnaud Verstraeten, Chi Bui, Hussain Kazmi, Maria Margarida Mascarenhas","submitted_at":"2026-05-16T15:30:23Z","abstract_excerpt":"Recent advances in Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) promise zero-shot forecasting capabilities with minimal task-specific training. While these models have shown strong performance across generic benchmarks, their applicability in volatile, complex electricity markets remains underexplored. Addressing this gap, this study provides a systematic empirical evaluation of several TSFMs, specifically Chronos-2 and Chronos-Bolt (developed by Amazon), and TimesFM 2.5 (provided by Google), for forecasting Belgian day-ahead and imbalance electricity prices. For both considered markets, Chronos-2 in"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2605.17045","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2605.17045/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[{"name":"ai_meta_artifact","ran_at":"2026-05-19T22:33:23.830016Z","status":"skipped","version":"1.0.0","findings_count":0},{"name":"claim_evidence","ran_at":"2026-05-19T22:21:57.773703Z","status":"completed","version":"1.0.0","findings_count":0}],"snapshot_sha256":"535f8ae5070ca9e88db11841f558e14fd4bbd5277335eec5a994996c2caaf479"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-20T00:03:37Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"H41dNMRLSbHYyfLHtCpJ9qwKW/wBuTDgDF91IDW6IBltRjetd0wWyw0ARiHC2EcTyIS9R08813JT83AiagsFAw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-08T23:47:12.912116Z"},"content_sha256":"37d57d8c72ac909e7df995ad0e71264de5af99d73a407adc70ae2e89cf3d4106","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:37d57d8c72ac909e7df995ad0e71264de5af99d73a407adc70ae2e89cf3d4106"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/D33FUMP34MABHKUI5AKJDJ3VJF/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/D33FUMP34MABHKUI5AKJDJ3VJF/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/D33FUMP34MABHKUI5AKJDJ3VJF/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-08T23:47:12Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/D33FUMP34MABHKUI5AKJDJ3VJF","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/D33FUMP34MABHKUI5AKJDJ3VJF/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/D33FUMP34MABHKUI5AKJDJ3VJF/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/D33FUMP34MABHKUI5AKJDJ3VJF/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2026:D33FUMP34MABHKUI5AKJDJ3VJF","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"56d60599a3e71ed8934d22f74b15d759457e70e32a9ee6c746325964207b7ee2","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG","cs.SY"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/","primary_cat":"eess.SY","submitted_at":"2026-05-16T15:30:23Z","title_canon_sha256":"4963a838ff49a2732a39725fc8a0d6a57358ad6b3735bb90cb3ac71564b173eb"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2605.17045","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2605.17045","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:03:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2605.17045v1","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:03:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2605.17045","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:03:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"D33FUMP34MAB","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:03:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"D33FUMP34MABHKUI","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:03:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"D33FUMP3","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:03:37Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:37d57d8c72ac909e7df995ad0e71264de5af99d73a407adc70ae2e89cf3d4106","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:03:37Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[{"findings_count":0,"name":"ai_meta_artifact","ran_at":"2026-05-19T22:33:23.830016Z","status":"skipped","version":"1.0.0"},{"findings_count":0,"name":"claim_evidence","ran_at":"2026-05-19T22:21:57.773703Z","status":"completed","version":"1.0.0"}],"endpoint":"/pith/2605.17045/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"535f8ae5070ca9e88db11841f558e14fd4bbd5277335eec5a994996c2caaf479","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Recent advances in Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) promise zero-shot forecasting capabilities with minimal task-specific training. While these models have shown strong performance across generic benchmarks, their applicability in volatile, complex electricity markets remains underexplored. Addressing this gap, this study provides a systematic empirical evaluation of several TSFMs, specifically Chronos-2 and Chronos-Bolt (developed by Amazon), and TimesFM 2.5 (provided by Google), for forecasting Belgian day-ahead and imbalance electricity prices. For both considered markets, Chronos-2 in","authors_text":"Arnaud Verstraeten, Chi Bui, Hussain Kazmi, Maria Margarida Mascarenhas","cross_cats":["cs.LG","cs.SY"],"headline":"","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/","primary_cat":"eess.SY","submitted_at":"2026-05-16T15:30:23Z","title":"Empirical evaluation of Time Series Foundation Models for Day-ahead and Imbalance Electricity Price Forecasting in Belgium"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2605.17045","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:83ebbeb1e38c7f2c0c38833268fc496dffdb70b5a4ec89f197fc8d647abe1aa6","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:03:37Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"56d60599a3e71ed8934d22f74b15d759457e70e32a9ee6c746325964207b7ee2","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG","cs.SY"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/","primary_cat":"eess.SY","submitted_at":"2026-05-16T15:30:23Z","title_canon_sha256":"4963a838ff49a2732a39725fc8a0d6a57358ad6b3735bb90cb3ac71564b173eb"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2605.17045","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"1ef65a31fbe30013aa88e81491a7754977eaf2151b0a4f8d20953157f2075a8b","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"1ef65a31fbe30013aa88e81491a7754977eaf2151b0a4f8d20953157f2075a8b","first_computed_at":"2026-05-20T00:03:37.679914Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-20T00:03:37.679914Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"sOoKGszPxXvGj+5AtAPNio9D2lO8VvEKtxeqGsEnIEUn9QzxiJVxfH//hmSvaaVwF+oUlZozrNb6Lp8UJF35DQ==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-20T00:03:37.680671Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2605.17045","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:83ebbeb1e38c7f2c0c38833268fc496dffdb70b5a4ec89f197fc8d647abe1aa6","sha256:37d57d8c72ac909e7df995ad0e71264de5af99d73a407adc70ae2e89cf3d4106"],"state_sha256":"3ea858e2fec78ee3b123508ea8c79c05fbb53cb3612afaea236f82796279988c"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"5ko9vdi5jNqfY+RIkz5JmJfp2S+nhFZmEWtGa5gSlc5hi9sdDKvJ7jn9zCfaBbqbH+t+qQ/kPWTmZDUN8PGuAw==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-08T23:47:12.914087Z","bundle_sha256":"075561b26bd589fd8be0efb1953cfbb05fc8a1026ef6f6c15d07c4a917191d1e"}}