{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2025:D4B4SHKDVQOUJC33DZFE2RVCWV","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"3ea7dc3f3bc29f883a90c97138db9fa5bb5efd9a1fe8685b6dc67afc2ad5a6e4","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.AP"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2025-08-07T22:43:28Z","title_canon_sha256":"47563faf48e199d4041a934ad6c2997945d90b1861d96ca3e525398a1b3e7e1e"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2508.05891","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2508.05891","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:50:45Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2508.05891v1","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:50:45Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2508.05891","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:50:45Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"D4B4SHKDVQOU","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:50:45Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"D4B4SHKDVQOUJC33","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:50:45Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"D4B4SHKD","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:50:45Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:e862b46de00e7b29f87ae0e3d282d076b49e36eb3d6c4cc6d54461f8bc5a5619","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:50:45Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2508.05891/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"In recent years, great emphasis has been placed on the prediction of association football. Due to this, several studies have proposed different types of statistical models to predict the outcome of a football match. However, most existing approaches usually assume that the offensive and defensive abilities of teams remain static over time. We introduce a Bayesian dynamic approach for football goal based models that uses period-specific commensurate priors to flexibly weight the evolution of attacking and defensive abilities. Our approach assigns separate, time varying precisions for each abili","authors_text":"Leonardo Egidi, Nicola Torelli, Roberto Macr\\`i-Demartino","cross_cats":["stat.AP"],"headline":"","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2025-08-07T22:43:28Z","title":"Bayesian weighted discrete-time dynamic models for association football prediction"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2508.05891","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:1ed1bf9d5e53a86fc0c6019fabcb1082af4721c64983e25abdc7b22c92bb6eef","target":"record","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:50:45Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"3ea7dc3f3bc29f883a90c97138db9fa5bb5efd9a1fe8685b6dc67afc2ad5a6e4","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.AP"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2025-08-07T22:43:28Z","title_canon_sha256":"47563faf48e199d4041a934ad6c2997945d90b1861d96ca3e525398a1b3e7e1e"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2508.05891","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"1f03c91d43ac1d448b7b1e4a4d46a2b56c2cf02dfca073aa58fd520b3897bc25","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"1f03c91d43ac1d448b7b1e4a4d46a2b56c2cf02dfca073aa58fd520b3897bc25","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T11:50:45.057994Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T11:50:45.057994Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"KbcnJc/gsuEOk2H4ep1r2DKuHNTLhu1jWpdDiAdvtolUGkR/Psy1JpqhXg2Mw3XMoatgEsNDBxtpTJmEBnaWAg==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-07-05T11:50:45.058518Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2508.05891","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:1ed1bf9d5e53a86fc0c6019fabcb1082af4721c64983e25abdc7b22c92bb6eef","sha256:e862b46de00e7b29f87ae0e3d282d076b49e36eb3d6c4cc6d54461f8bc5a5619"],"state_sha256":"963a05de32e2adf55608eadb32deb6a780b24478b200378c9579cb5e61600c7d"}