{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2018:DAZBRHENI6QKYEKDMV3KP7QLMF","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"03631e13d4b008269c81f7a85375083a97ce0a989066c723e31261c66c3db1e5","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"econ.EM","submitted_at":"2018-12-27T20:40:13Z","title_canon_sha256":"be46888c3afddd0d29c5251a43ee6205343e3227d35208992790a56e570b397c"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1812.10820","kind":"arxiv","version":9}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1812.10820","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:07:54Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1812.10820v9","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:07:54Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1812.10820","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:07:54Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"DAZBRHENI6QK","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:07:54Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"DAZBRHENI6QKYEKD","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:07:54Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"DAZBRHEN","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:07:54Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:8b628cf686f5233bed0194e689f37d19e24b3a7f945e9b0f5b038b16e7a549cd","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:07:54Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/1812.10820/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"We propose a practical and robust method for making inferences on average treatment effects estimated by synthetic controls. We develop a $K$-fold cross-fitting procedure for bias correction. To avoid the difficult estimation of the long-run variance, inference is based on a self-normalized $t$-statistic, which has an asymptotically pivotal $t$-distribution. Our $t$-test is easy to implement, provably robust against misspecification, and valid with stationary and non-stationary data. It demonstrates an excellent small sample performance in application-based simulations and performs well relati","authors_text":"Kaspar Wuthrich, Victor Chernozhukov, Yinchu Zhu","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"econ.EM","submitted_at":"2018-12-27T20:40:13Z","title":"Debiasing and $t$-tests for synthetic control inference on average causal effects"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1812.10820","kind":"arxiv","version":9},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:52f4803c0ae4d7fad334faeb1ed51e3de32c01f4413e3c4b5c56cb1febc46e66","target":"record","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:07:54Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"03631e13d4b008269c81f7a85375083a97ce0a989066c723e31261c66c3db1e5","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"econ.EM","submitted_at":"2018-12-27T20:40:13Z","title_canon_sha256":"be46888c3afddd0d29c5251a43ee6205343e3227d35208992790a56e570b397c"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1812.10820","kind":"arxiv","version":9}},"canonical_sha256":"1832189c8d47a0ac11436576a7fe0b616be4714a05b36f5a381d12b7ef8e636c","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"1832189c8d47a0ac11436576a7fe0b616be4714a05b36f5a381d12b7ef8e636c","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T11:07:54.021669Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T11:07:54.021669Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"v32gCluCXLtxxZ/2ct64FzUGyyIj8IU9rSvbVu2fipWoxhZU3QvaTokBrlnLOVduvzltm5lhtqFwc2nuUPMTCw==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-07-05T11:07:54.022186Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1812.10820","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":9}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:52f4803c0ae4d7fad334faeb1ed51e3de32c01f4413e3c4b5c56cb1febc46e66","sha256:8b628cf686f5233bed0194e689f37d19e24b3a7f945e9b0f5b038b16e7a549cd"],"state_sha256":"fbc5f19df22ffeec6ec836002acebd5705f221e6b4eb4a8c1c3e9519b64f95b7"}