{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2018:DY3HZY4USMRHULAMBJJ7ZQPMAT","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"e16618dde97c411aa7b236b01ea0fafd871bf581a7919dfa4d01ef55e9732e3f","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2018-07-15T13:18:22Z","title_canon_sha256":"655dcf7b1f2a9988bce00aa99f9e78f3929bd51dc0fc70d4b1ed062567035670"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1807.09665","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1807.09665","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:09:50Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1807.09665v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:09:50Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1807.09665","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:09:50Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"DY3HZY4USMRH","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:32:19Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"DY3HZY4USMRHULAM","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:32:19Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"DY3HZY4U","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:32:19Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:24346aa2958555fe06b3cb21b378becff562a74b1b6f40cadbf80dd02a7af6cf","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:09:50Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Common election poll reporting is often misleading as sample uncertainty is addressed insufficiently or not covered at all. Furthermore, main interest usually lies beyond the simple party shares. For a more comprehensive opinion poll and election coverage, we propose shifting the focus towards the reporting of survey-based probabilities for specific events of interest. We present such an approach for multi-party electoral systems, focusing on probabilities of coalition majorities. A Monte Carlo approach based on a Bayesian Multinomial-Dirichlet model is used for estimation. Probabilities are e","authors_text":"Alexander Bauer, Andreas Bender, Andr\\'e Klima, Helmut K\\\"uchenhoff","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2018-07-15T13:18:22Z","title":"KOALA: A new paradigm for election coverage"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1807.09665","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:f05a1c5b30df8db61f0dac237d495d67effacb66d5d881d76465a44170febee5","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:09:50Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"e16618dde97c411aa7b236b01ea0fafd871bf581a7919dfa4d01ef55e9732e3f","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2018-07-15T13:18:22Z","title_canon_sha256":"655dcf7b1f2a9988bce00aa99f9e78f3929bd51dc0fc70d4b1ed062567035670"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1807.09665","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"1e367ce39493227a2c0c0a53fcc1ec04c3e399136714a5c7e63e05e2ea8aaa09","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"1e367ce39493227a2c0c0a53fcc1ec04c3e399136714a5c7e63e05e2ea8aaa09","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T00:09:50.626196Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T00:09:50.626196Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"M8BgU4eKG1+MF4ikMhJVaZ4C9q2giLMfT1xxum+Ntk1+N4hIs1q7tt6G2lL7TFGQsmFFbMFReIhar5OGJlOgBg==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T00:09:50.626875Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1807.09665","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:f05a1c5b30df8db61f0dac237d495d67effacb66d5d881d76465a44170febee5","sha256:24346aa2958555fe06b3cb21b378becff562a74b1b6f40cadbf80dd02a7af6cf"],"state_sha256":"61bb07620ca3dd910c0fb46900b797e79ca072cd675b61a547027d7db275cb83"}