{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2014:EGAVZMQXIFDK5GHRU6LLUI2TLA","short_pith_number":"pith:EGAVZMQX","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1404.6572","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"math.ST","submitted_at":"2014-04-25T22:24:18Z","cross_cats_sorted":["math.PR","stat.TH"],"title_canon_sha256":"74487d63623b2f6c40fcc0d0f181d6c2ccea5991cfba824e45c1d2edee4a79de","abstract_canon_sha256":"924e95d0859b4dee32d4ef251cf924042b7f6f743d3003b4343115f4ba88c565"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"21815cb2174146ae98f1a796ba235358374503f46f3b6c7fd6abd9f2cb2c0fe2","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1404.6572","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1404.6572","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:51:41Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1404.6572v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:51:41Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1404.6572","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:51:41Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"EGAVZMQXIFDK","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:25Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"EGAVZMQXIFDK5GHR","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:25Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"EGAVZMQX","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:25Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2014:EGAVZMQXIFDK5GHRU6LLUI2TLA","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1404.6572","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"math.ST","submitted_at":"2014-04-25T22:24:18Z","cross_cats_sorted":["math.PR","stat.TH"],"title_canon_sha256":"74487d63623b2f6c40fcc0d0f181d6c2ccea5991cfba824e45c1d2edee4a79de","abstract_canon_sha256":"924e95d0859b4dee32d4ef251cf924042b7f6f743d3003b4343115f4ba88c565"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"21815cb2174146ae98f1a796ba235358374503f46f3b6c7fd6abd9f2cb2c0fe2","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T02:51:41.344437Z","signature_b64":"dJDauj6T4Am/h5hsHI0NhMvadpaDg5hcy3gob/vnxpmqgFlxFlHUL1Sm/TkCT0DUbjdS7TnFT5CODN0mfcxsDw==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"21815cb2174146ae98f1a796ba235358374503f46f3b6c7fd6abd9f2cb2c0fe2","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T02:51:41.343798Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T02:51:41.343798Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1404.6572","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T02:51:41Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"lH90QNQwjexhaZaUBwgayuT8fvCVTH+xnSpadU1GKm18oCQJH4pmpdASDIzSlRdEbfPFHCMdNKspnWxLXOIVAA==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-07T09:13:11.259600Z"},"content_sha256":"8bd69a40fd77653c812d76ee7656118f6fa76f564fa02cf46e4b2e2b097c3ef8","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:8bd69a40fd77653c812d76ee7656118f6fa76f564fa02cf46e4b2e2b097c3ef8"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2014:EGAVZMQXIFDK5GHRU6LLUI2TLA","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Exchangeability and the Law of Maturity","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["math.PR","stat.TH"],"primary_cat":"math.ST","authors_text":"Claudia Monteiro Peixoto, Fernando Vieira Bonassi, Rafael Bassi Stern, Sergio Wechsler","submitted_at":"2014-04-25T22:24:18Z","abstract_excerpt":"The law of maturity is the belief that less-observed events are becoming mature and, therefore, more likely to occur in the future. Previous studies have shown that the assumption of infinite exchangeability contradicts the law of maturity. In particular, it has been shown that infinite exchangeability contradicts probabilistic descriptions of the law of maturity such as the gambler's belief and the belief in maturity. We show that the weaker assumption of finite exchangeability is compatible with both the gambler's belief and belief in maturity. We provide sufficient conditions under which th"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1404.6572","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T02:51:41Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"BHrSt6wFffHKjkoLbUYUuVwg9O9vAsdq36SnakqgvsngJGxdh57yMGY+Pj0t9GCvB8dLG4HYdPsDDaYHRrElDg==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-07T09:13:11.260012Z"},"content_sha256":"2f9c7a080b3b726e346fbc7b42c4ad8069ac6864c632ca02e575136cf1512e64","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:2f9c7a080b3b726e346fbc7b42c4ad8069ac6864c632ca02e575136cf1512e64"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/EGAVZMQXIFDK5GHRU6LLUI2TLA/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/EGAVZMQXIFDK5GHRU6LLUI2TLA/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/EGAVZMQXIFDK5GHRU6LLUI2TLA/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-07T09:13:11Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/EGAVZMQXIFDK5GHRU6LLUI2TLA","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/EGAVZMQXIFDK5GHRU6LLUI2TLA/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/EGAVZMQXIFDK5GHRU6LLUI2TLA/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/EGAVZMQXIFDK5GHRU6LLUI2TLA/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2014:EGAVZMQXIFDK5GHRU6LLUI2TLA","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"924e95d0859b4dee32d4ef251cf924042b7f6f743d3003b4343115f4ba88c565","cross_cats_sorted":["math.PR","stat.TH"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"math.ST","submitted_at":"2014-04-25T22:24:18Z","title_canon_sha256":"74487d63623b2f6c40fcc0d0f181d6c2ccea5991cfba824e45c1d2edee4a79de"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1404.6572","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1404.6572","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:51:41Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1404.6572v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:51:41Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1404.6572","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:51:41Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"EGAVZMQXIFDK","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:25Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"EGAVZMQXIFDK5GHR","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:25Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"EGAVZMQX","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:25Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:2f9c7a080b3b726e346fbc7b42c4ad8069ac6864c632ca02e575136cf1512e64","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:51:41Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"The law of maturity is the belief that less-observed events are becoming mature and, therefore, more likely to occur in the future. Previous studies have shown that the assumption of infinite exchangeability contradicts the law of maturity. In particular, it has been shown that infinite exchangeability contradicts probabilistic descriptions of the law of maturity such as the gambler's belief and the belief in maturity. We show that the weaker assumption of finite exchangeability is compatible with both the gambler's belief and belief in maturity. We provide sufficient conditions under which th","authors_text":"Claudia Monteiro Peixoto, Fernando Vieira Bonassi, Rafael Bassi Stern, Sergio Wechsler","cross_cats":["math.PR","stat.TH"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"math.ST","submitted_at":"2014-04-25T22:24:18Z","title":"Exchangeability and the Law of Maturity"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1404.6572","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:8bd69a40fd77653c812d76ee7656118f6fa76f564fa02cf46e4b2e2b097c3ef8","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:51:41Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"924e95d0859b4dee32d4ef251cf924042b7f6f743d3003b4343115f4ba88c565","cross_cats_sorted":["math.PR","stat.TH"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"math.ST","submitted_at":"2014-04-25T22:24:18Z","title_canon_sha256":"74487d63623b2f6c40fcc0d0f181d6c2ccea5991cfba824e45c1d2edee4a79de"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1404.6572","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"21815cb2174146ae98f1a796ba235358374503f46f3b6c7fd6abd9f2cb2c0fe2","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"21815cb2174146ae98f1a796ba235358374503f46f3b6c7fd6abd9f2cb2c0fe2","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T02:51:41.343798Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T02:51:41.343798Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"dJDauj6T4Am/h5hsHI0NhMvadpaDg5hcy3gob/vnxpmqgFlxFlHUL1Sm/TkCT0DUbjdS7TnFT5CODN0mfcxsDw==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T02:51:41.344437Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1404.6572","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:8bd69a40fd77653c812d76ee7656118f6fa76f564fa02cf46e4b2e2b097c3ef8","sha256:2f9c7a080b3b726e346fbc7b42c4ad8069ac6864c632ca02e575136cf1512e64"],"state_sha256":"c8977d94c2506c126a27428dc24f430dee53ff2fb8aebe9c95237180972bfc1a"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"VRoYaD4zFDaHZ9RpC6jExqoFkS2S6RtqOz3H3HaPucH4v63senQEzff04OMA+5aML44HSY0acSTPoh+GmdCEAw==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-07T09:13:11.262711Z","bundle_sha256":"e4558b1b48ae1000c2999b8b2d3d20b511445f901e29483bdb5bf855bab24bca"}}