{"record_type":"pith_number_record","schema_url":"https://pith.science/schemas/pith-number/v1.json","pith_number":"pith:2018:EKT7R7O56X7WLLHFMGWKYGCFZN","short_pith_number":"pith:EKT7R7O5","schema_version":"1.0","canonical_sha256":"22a7f8fdddf5ff65ace561acac1845cb6548be2b19e684db76d9b5b71b4a4e43","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1802.09999","version":1},"attestation_state":"computed","paper":{"title":"Planning Fallacy or Hiding Hand: Which Is the Better Explanation?","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"q-fin.EC","authors_text":"Bent Flyvbjerg","submitted_at":"2018-02-08T20:55:45Z","abstract_excerpt":"This paper asks and answers the question of whether Kahneman's planning fallacy or Hirschman's Hiding Hand best explain performance in capital investment projects. I agree with my critics that the Hiding Hand exists, i.e., sometimes benefit overruns outweigh cost overruns in project planning and delivery. Specifically, I show this happens in one fifth of projects, based on the best and largest dataset that exists. But that was not the main question I set out to answer. My main question was whether the Hiding Hand is \"typical,\" as claimed by Hirschman. I show this is not the case, with 80 perce"},"verification_status":{"content_addressed":true,"pith_receipt":true,"author_attested":false,"weak_author_claims":0,"strong_author_claims":0,"externally_anchored":false,"storage_verified":false,"citation_signatures":0,"replication_records":0,"graph_snapshot":true,"references_resolved":false,"formal_links_present":false},"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1802.09999","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-fin.EC","submitted_at":"2018-02-08T20:55:45Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"647460870d8eb6614f26a2f183f50040b348cbd76d69f295928e69fbb704dd2a","abstract_canon_sha256":"ff156f97056f4f0d140c79bbd446a52b442a09c347cc68e2da548e8aa0f5c637"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T00:22:21.633567Z","signature_b64":"xqErDK13nysTHEVXN83Me4ObuY/v//ZKHZn4O5bTFP1n8MM2mKF29WF95qpJXFOZaihkT5tQxcS6esq2soNyCQ==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"22a7f8fdddf5ff65ace561acac1845cb6548be2b19e684db76d9b5b71b4a4e43","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T00:22:21.633011Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T00:22:21.633011Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Planning Fallacy or Hiding Hand: Which Is the Better Explanation?","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"q-fin.EC","authors_text":"Bent Flyvbjerg","submitted_at":"2018-02-08T20:55:45Z","abstract_excerpt":"This paper asks and answers the question of whether Kahneman's planning fallacy or Hirschman's Hiding Hand best explain performance in capital investment projects. I agree with my critics that the Hiding Hand exists, i.e., sometimes benefit overruns outweigh cost overruns in project planning and delivery. Specifically, I show this happens in one fifth of projects, based on the best and largest dataset that exists. But that was not the main question I set out to answer. My main question was whether the Hiding Hand is \"typical,\" as claimed by Hirschman. I show this is not the case, with 80 perce"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1802.09999","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1802.09999","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:22:21.633071+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1802.09999v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:22:21.633071+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1802.09999","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:22:21.633071+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"EKT7R7O56X7W","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:32:22.470017+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"EKT7R7O56X7WLLHF","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:32:22.470017+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"EKT7R7O5","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:32:22.470017+00:00"}],"events":[],"event_summary":{},"paper_claims":[],"inbound_citations":{"count":0,"internal_anchor_count":0,"sample":[]},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"sample":[],"anchors":[]},"links":{"html":"https://pith.science/pith/EKT7R7O56X7WLLHFMGWKYGCFZN","json":"https://pith.science/pith/EKT7R7O56X7WLLHFMGWKYGCFZN.json","graph_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/EKT7R7O56X7WLLHFMGWKYGCFZN/graph.json","events_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/EKT7R7O56X7WLLHFMGWKYGCFZN/events.json","paper":"https://pith.science/paper/EKT7R7O5"},"agent_actions":{"view_html":"https://pith.science/pith/EKT7R7O56X7WLLHFMGWKYGCFZN","download_json":"https://pith.science/pith/EKT7R7O56X7WLLHFMGWKYGCFZN.json","view_paper":"https://pith.science/paper/EKT7R7O5","resolve_alias":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/resolve?arxiv=1802.09999&json=true","fetch_graph":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/EKT7R7O56X7WLLHFMGWKYGCFZN/graph.json","fetch_events":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/EKT7R7O56X7WLLHFMGWKYGCFZN/events.json","actions":{"anchor_timestamp":"https://pith.science/pith/EKT7R7O56X7WLLHFMGWKYGCFZN/action/timestamp_anchor","attest_storage":"https://pith.science/pith/EKT7R7O56X7WLLHFMGWKYGCFZN/action/storage_attestation","attest_author":"https://pith.science/pith/EKT7R7O56X7WLLHFMGWKYGCFZN/action/author_attestation","sign_citation":"https://pith.science/pith/EKT7R7O56X7WLLHFMGWKYGCFZN/action/citation_signature","submit_replication":"https://pith.science/pith/EKT7R7O56X7WLLHFMGWKYGCFZN/action/replication_record"}},"created_at":"2026-05-18T00:22:21.633071+00:00","updated_at":"2026-05-18T00:22:21.633071+00:00"}