{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2018:EW3GTPCGH4EX6RADKNNGOEHUP6","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"e9ec8f8601e9fa8aa94bed6f6f190d79533d1472f91989e32eac4c74acd351f3","cross_cats_sorted":["math.ST","stat.TH"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.ao-ph","submitted_at":"2018-04-16T16:17:37Z","title_canon_sha256":"4b0628c8159cc2614c7c829a69179e7384edac9000e81c02fee5945df8ba6db4"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1804.05770","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1804.05770","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:57:41Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1804.05770v1","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:57:41Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1804.05770","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:57:41Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"EW3GTPCGH4EX","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:32:22Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"EW3GTPCGH4EX6RAD","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:32:22Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"EW3GTPCG","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:32:22Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:8b26032be15a9f479104270922c8e6ee0f62de7db949a1034d10eba398366a8e","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:57:41Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"The problem of testing the reliability of ensemble forecasting systems is revisited. A popular tool to assess the reliability of ensemble forecasting systems (for scalar verifications) is the rank histogram, this histogram is expected to be more or less flat, since for a reliable ensemble, the ranks are uniformly distributed among their possible outcomes. Quantitative tests for flatness (e.g.\\ Pearson's goodness--of--fit test) have been suggested, without exception though, these tests assume the ranks to be a sequence of independent random variables, which is not the case in general as can be ","authors_text":"Jochen Br\\\"ocker","cross_cats":["math.ST","stat.TH"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.ao-ph","submitted_at":"2018-04-16T16:17:37Z","title":"Assessing the reliability of ensemble forecasting systems under serial dependence"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1804.05770","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:b42ad4bc285766a346cdecb109d890f22d00fce5afb7f3dcc9e76d92649a6094","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:57:41Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"e9ec8f8601e9fa8aa94bed6f6f190d79533d1472f91989e32eac4c74acd351f3","cross_cats_sorted":["math.ST","stat.TH"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.ao-ph","submitted_at":"2018-04-16T16:17:37Z","title_canon_sha256":"4b0628c8159cc2614c7c829a69179e7384edac9000e81c02fee5945df8ba6db4"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1804.05770","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"25b669bc463f097f4403535a6710f47f9bfe24c3a46f2df09798becffa403ff9","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"25b669bc463f097f4403535a6710f47f9bfe24c3a46f2df09798becffa403ff9","first_computed_at":"2026-05-17T23:57:41.632781Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-17T23:57:41.632781Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"bBfCUQFRt6ILqULIUnIahx7qQpFNmeYPnsLhKdgVhYbol5r7j7f7tHofIXFIMim8Im0UmiZZwscBMPGIKlY2Bg==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-17T23:57:41.633408Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1804.05770","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:b42ad4bc285766a346cdecb109d890f22d00fce5afb7f3dcc9e76d92649a6094","sha256:8b26032be15a9f479104270922c8e6ee0f62de7db949a1034d10eba398366a8e"],"state_sha256":"76f25d587d32e5b2648ac9c3261ee72c4c02305e807d126dd26ab44fc454f8aa"}