{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2015:FTUESS5OWBLTBWBJMVDXVQLFH3","short_pith_number":"pith:FTUESS5O","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1505.04722","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2015-05-18T17:05:51Z","cross_cats_sorted":["physics.soc-ph"],"title_canon_sha256":"62003e6c0436f338ef884c86fd85d0f5ae27eb1ef8363bc2c90fcbf90c1d6427","abstract_canon_sha256":"b0028de2408a8d5974631e7b732740749ec97cb04d09274659199ac72f1b8a19"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"2ce8494baeb05730d82965477ac1653ecda3c23bbd38911a99e820cb0eba28bd","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1505.04722","version":2},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1505.04722","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:06:24Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1505.04722v2","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:06:24Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1505.04722","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:06:24Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"FTUESS5OWBLT","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:22Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"FTUESS5OWBLTBWBJ","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:22Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"FTUESS5O","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:22Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2015:FTUESS5OWBLTBWBJMVDXVQLFH3","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1505.04722","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2015-05-18T17:05:51Z","cross_cats_sorted":["physics.soc-ph"],"title_canon_sha256":"62003e6c0436f338ef884c86fd85d0f5ae27eb1ef8363bc2c90fcbf90c1d6427","abstract_canon_sha256":"b0028de2408a8d5974631e7b732740749ec97cb04d09274659199ac72f1b8a19"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"2ce8494baeb05730d82965477ac1653ecda3c23bbd38911a99e820cb0eba28bd","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T01:06:24.663219Z","signature_b64":"BMn05d5yAINFR66ifr9yA+skzXZrwq3GkwaW84Zr9iOcMzWn5g13I1tavlXNMF44iBxXdnp8o7NwSg5tRv+IDA==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"2ce8494baeb05730d82965477ac1653ecda3c23bbd38911a99e820cb0eba28bd","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T01:06:24.662741Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T01:06:24.662741Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1505.04722","source_version":2,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T01:06:24Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"/7knj0xvImFcSLP/iiObMdejzw08QSiZcPE7YjEQYHiaQUqrx0R4LK1a8+jfTN/3YS4Qz7LgIjapswrqt91MBg==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-25T22:01:12.240504Z"},"content_sha256":"a268e2198ed58e5849ddb2fccde0d7b801025c5de26f3a2c6335f1a8f9f3adda","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:a268e2198ed58e5849ddb2fccde0d7b801025c5de26f3a2c6335f1a8f9f3adda"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2015:FTUESS5OWBLTBWBJMVDXVQLFH3","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"On the statistical properties and tail risk of violent conflicts","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["physics.soc-ph"],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Pasquale Cirillo","submitted_at":"2015-05-18T17:05:51Z","abstract_excerpt":"We examine statistical pictures of violent conflicts over the last 2000 years, finding techniques for dealing with incompleteness and unreliability of historical data. We introduce a novel approach to apply extreme value theory to fat-tailed variables that have a remote, but nonetheless finite upper bound, by defining a corresponding unbounded dual distribution (given that potential war casualties are bounded by the world population). We apply methods from extreme value theory on the dual distribution and derive its tail properties. The dual method allows us to calculate the real mean of war c"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1505.04722","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T01:06:24Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"F6ar+f8IK3oYH0lAgJGLVIpvHzPbEZVwK+Dg10ShpvgYCF01uHne65WCBcge3Ibd1hceDVmmZ0pcW19uUSmDBA==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-25T22:01:12.240855Z"},"content_sha256":"c7c24e1204f312e8172f1044bd43c16668f55289090b823c65d0461bdc4d1102","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:c7c24e1204f312e8172f1044bd43c16668f55289090b823c65d0461bdc4d1102"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/FTUESS5OWBLTBWBJMVDXVQLFH3/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/FTUESS5OWBLTBWBJMVDXVQLFH3/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/FTUESS5OWBLTBWBJMVDXVQLFH3/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-25T22:01:12Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/FTUESS5OWBLTBWBJMVDXVQLFH3","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/FTUESS5OWBLTBWBJMVDXVQLFH3/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/FTUESS5OWBLTBWBJMVDXVQLFH3/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/FTUESS5OWBLTBWBJMVDXVQLFH3/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2015:FTUESS5OWBLTBWBJMVDXVQLFH3","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"b0028de2408a8d5974631e7b732740749ec97cb04d09274659199ac72f1b8a19","cross_cats_sorted":["physics.soc-ph"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2015-05-18T17:05:51Z","title_canon_sha256":"62003e6c0436f338ef884c86fd85d0f5ae27eb1ef8363bc2c90fcbf90c1d6427"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1505.04722","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1505.04722","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:06:24Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1505.04722v2","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:06:24Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1505.04722","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:06:24Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"FTUESS5OWBLT","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:22Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"FTUESS5OWBLTBWBJ","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:22Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"FTUESS5O","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:22Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:c7c24e1204f312e8172f1044bd43c16668f55289090b823c65d0461bdc4d1102","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:06:24Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"We examine statistical pictures of violent conflicts over the last 2000 years, finding techniques for dealing with incompleteness and unreliability of historical data. We introduce a novel approach to apply extreme value theory to fat-tailed variables that have a remote, but nonetheless finite upper bound, by defining a corresponding unbounded dual distribution (given that potential war casualties are bounded by the world population). We apply methods from extreme value theory on the dual distribution and derive its tail properties. The dual method allows us to calculate the real mean of war c","authors_text":"Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Pasquale Cirillo","cross_cats":["physics.soc-ph"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2015-05-18T17:05:51Z","title":"On the statistical properties and tail risk of violent conflicts"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1505.04722","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:a268e2198ed58e5849ddb2fccde0d7b801025c5de26f3a2c6335f1a8f9f3adda","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:06:24Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"b0028de2408a8d5974631e7b732740749ec97cb04d09274659199ac72f1b8a19","cross_cats_sorted":["physics.soc-ph"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2015-05-18T17:05:51Z","title_canon_sha256":"62003e6c0436f338ef884c86fd85d0f5ae27eb1ef8363bc2c90fcbf90c1d6427"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1505.04722","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"canonical_sha256":"2ce8494baeb05730d82965477ac1653ecda3c23bbd38911a99e820cb0eba28bd","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"2ce8494baeb05730d82965477ac1653ecda3c23bbd38911a99e820cb0eba28bd","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T01:06:24.662741Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T01:06:24.662741Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"BMn05d5yAINFR66ifr9yA+skzXZrwq3GkwaW84Zr9iOcMzWn5g13I1tavlXNMF44iBxXdnp8o7NwSg5tRv+IDA==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T01:06:24.663219Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1505.04722","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":2}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:a268e2198ed58e5849ddb2fccde0d7b801025c5de26f3a2c6335f1a8f9f3adda","sha256:c7c24e1204f312e8172f1044bd43c16668f55289090b823c65d0461bdc4d1102"],"state_sha256":"39ca18631c99aaed861cc88f49700110ce1347d168ceb6e5c1b54d4522f7ce71"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"aQ7yA+aztV6MxgWuzRFF5QRvPkpVc84reBxGOCo+GQSlQQX0A72XbPWYo9TkRBVYxmaA3/a0efTLO+udfT5vAw==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-25T22:01:12.242951Z","bundle_sha256":"68dfe4ad967f97948ca2abaf121dc4fc601eb8ea9d633c09cf988c48cdaee489"}}