{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2026:GGTWV6U3QFRXJIZQMJ5SOPBSMZ","short_pith_number":"pith:GGTWV6U3","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2606.18367","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"cs.LG","submitted_at":"2026-06-16T18:16:07Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"6d597a4e2382a6ce0bb8c93cf3a54ae1ca456bffcdb4e70e79f81d22010a1af6","abstract_canon_sha256":"b9c233457762edbdb389182025daa5f3e221757a43b63b8be0ef616afcc8ebf5"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"31a76afa9b816374a330627b273c326645623c162b48962d4ef5f84588f94aaa","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"2606.18367","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2606.18367","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2606.18367v1","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2606.18367","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"GGTWV6U3QFRX","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"GGTWV6U3QFRXJIZQ","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"GGTWV6U3","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:59Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2026:GGTWV6U3QFRXJIZQMJ5SOPBSMZ","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2606.18367","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"cs.LG","submitted_at":"2026-06-16T18:16:07Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"6d597a4e2382a6ce0bb8c93cf3a54ae1ca456bffcdb4e70e79f81d22010a1af6","abstract_canon_sha256":"b9c233457762edbdb389182025daa5f3e221757a43b63b8be0ef616afcc8ebf5"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"31a76afa9b816374a330627b273c326645623c162b48962d4ef5f84588f94aaa","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:59.191889Z","signature_b64":"coAGQA51wUXEnRi1ypKohdQMuH8pD4yziOXHd5gsgjYokx0AiwnkgnW2m90XRBYlyttqqSKGk3tGZ5Xp7tSwAw==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"31a76afa9b816374a330627b273c326645623c162b48962d4ef5f84588f94aaa","last_reissued_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:59.191503Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:59.191503Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"2606.18367","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:59Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"So6m+poYubNl7VD2Kk0OgftR86WWUGV6Gv/6MpHxThd+orWPnwRp5BGA1FZhNjEVIOh0Q/63mROUQGn/DfmpAw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-27T20:59:26.890642Z"},"content_sha256":"c6606eea95545204e1b11ff3d79f399f0c9ae871afd48c01d971b63682d500dc","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:c6606eea95545204e1b11ff3d79f399f0c9ae871afd48c01d971b63682d500dc"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2026:GGTWV6U3QFRXJIZQMJ5SOPBSMZ","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Do Time Series Foundation Model Benchmarks Hide Regime-Dependent Failures? Evidence from Traffic Speed Forecasting","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"cs.LG","authors_text":"Lingdong Kong, Wei Gao, Xian Sun, Yanhang Li, Yingshuo Wang, Zexin Zhuang, Zhichao Fan","submitted_at":"2026-06-16T18:16:07Z","abstract_excerpt":"Standard benchmarks evaluate time series foundation models (TSFMs) using aggregate metrics, but these can mask severe failures in critical operating regimes. We introduce regime-stratified evaluation and apply it to three TSFMs on two standard traffic speed benchmarks. Traffic exhibits abrupt regime switching between free-flow and congested states, producing bimodal speed distributions during transitions. When we stratify by traffic regime, both accuracy and prediction-interval coverage degrade sharply during transitions: transition-regime MAE reaches 11 mph (versus 3 mph overall), and empiric"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2606.18367","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2606.18367/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:59Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"JtTBiAjRQFugqPIJ9j1O15I1g2OJJZWtYwQmzfUlizScDDnoIhPjya21PLS+diUiO0qAa2nVqIF2SM6SjcHeBw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-27T20:59:26.891014Z"},"content_sha256":"b38aa3e8d238cf97838f63da163ec52291de17638c56b4828bf9269b8d0d3623","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:b38aa3e8d238cf97838f63da163ec52291de17638c56b4828bf9269b8d0d3623"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/GGTWV6U3QFRXJIZQMJ5SOPBSMZ/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/GGTWV6U3QFRXJIZQMJ5SOPBSMZ/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/GGTWV6U3QFRXJIZQMJ5SOPBSMZ/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-27T20:59:26Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/GGTWV6U3QFRXJIZQMJ5SOPBSMZ","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/GGTWV6U3QFRXJIZQMJ5SOPBSMZ/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/GGTWV6U3QFRXJIZQMJ5SOPBSMZ/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/GGTWV6U3QFRXJIZQMJ5SOPBSMZ/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2026:GGTWV6U3QFRXJIZQMJ5SOPBSMZ","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"b9c233457762edbdb389182025daa5f3e221757a43b63b8be0ef616afcc8ebf5","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"cs.LG","submitted_at":"2026-06-16T18:16:07Z","title_canon_sha256":"6d597a4e2382a6ce0bb8c93cf3a54ae1ca456bffcdb4e70e79f81d22010a1af6"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2606.18367","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2606.18367","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2606.18367v1","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2606.18367","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"GGTWV6U3QFRX","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"GGTWV6U3QFRXJIZQ","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"GGTWV6U3","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:59Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:b38aa3e8d238cf97838f63da163ec52291de17638c56b4828bf9269b8d0d3623","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:59Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2606.18367/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Standard benchmarks evaluate time series foundation models (TSFMs) using aggregate metrics, but these can mask severe failures in critical operating regimes. We introduce regime-stratified evaluation and apply it to three TSFMs on two standard traffic speed benchmarks. Traffic exhibits abrupt regime switching between free-flow and congested states, producing bimodal speed distributions during transitions. When we stratify by traffic regime, both accuracy and prediction-interval coverage degrade sharply during transitions: transition-regime MAE reaches 11 mph (versus 3 mph overall), and empiric","authors_text":"Lingdong Kong, Wei Gao, Xian Sun, Yanhang Li, Yingshuo Wang, Zexin Zhuang, Zhichao Fan","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"cs.LG","submitted_at":"2026-06-16T18:16:07Z","title":"Do Time Series Foundation Model Benchmarks Hide Regime-Dependent Failures? Evidence from Traffic Speed Forecasting"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2606.18367","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:c6606eea95545204e1b11ff3d79f399f0c9ae871afd48c01d971b63682d500dc","target":"record","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:59Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"b9c233457762edbdb389182025daa5f3e221757a43b63b8be0ef616afcc8ebf5","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"cs.LG","submitted_at":"2026-06-16T18:16:07Z","title_canon_sha256":"6d597a4e2382a6ce0bb8c93cf3a54ae1ca456bffcdb4e70e79f81d22010a1af6"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2606.18367","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"31a76afa9b816374a330627b273c326645623c162b48962d4ef5f84588f94aaa","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"31a76afa9b816374a330627b273c326645623c162b48962d4ef5f84588f94aaa","first_computed_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:59.191503Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:59.191503Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"coAGQA51wUXEnRi1ypKohdQMuH8pD4yziOXHd5gsgjYokx0AiwnkgnW2m90XRBYlyttqqSKGk3tGZ5Xp7tSwAw==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:59.191889Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2606.18367","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:c6606eea95545204e1b11ff3d79f399f0c9ae871afd48c01d971b63682d500dc","sha256:b38aa3e8d238cf97838f63da163ec52291de17638c56b4828bf9269b8d0d3623"],"state_sha256":"e9dd00b9e99e68940d6509878aaab3a715f8300e36db5a6c277833d37bb59909"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"+R7HEJFacrTGUWON6/KZM70oENNHXQn9KUyPH8RCLl4qbWYZjcToARLiSiwomwP9TJEt+s49/TyEtmcyABkhDg==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-27T20:59:26.893063Z","bundle_sha256":"4f14e0296d699d8a69a01b473bb0ecc1a1640c304eeb28b22fc0bd7c70408a33"}}