{"record_type":"pith_number_record","schema_url":"https://pith.science/schemas/pith-number/v1.json","pith_number":"pith:2017:GQEJC6HH4FFY6MPSYM4SCXVIED","short_pith_number":"pith:GQEJC6HH","schema_version":"1.0","canonical_sha256":"34089178e7e14b8f31f2c339215ea820ed5bcebdb5a04a75fcd0bb47d2601b9d","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1710.10277","version":1},"attestation_state":"computed","paper":{"title":"When tails wag the decision: The role of distributional tails on climate impacts on decision-relevant time-scales","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["physics.data-an"],"primary_cat":"physics.ao-ph","authors_text":"Gregory G. Garner, Klaus Keller","submitted_at":"2017-10-27T18:03:08Z","abstract_excerpt":"Assessing and managing risks in a changing climate requires projections that account for decision-relevant uncertainties. These deep uncertainties are often approximated by ensembles of Earth-system model runs that sample only a subset of the known uncertainties. Here we demonstrate and quantify how this approach can cut off the tails of the distributions of projected climate variables such as sea-level rise. As a result, low-probability high-impact events that may drive risks can be under-represented. Neglecting the tails of this deep uncertainty may lead to overconfident projections and poor"},"verification_status":{"content_addressed":true,"pith_receipt":true,"author_attested":false,"weak_author_claims":0,"strong_author_claims":0,"externally_anchored":false,"storage_verified":false,"citation_signatures":0,"replication_records":0,"graph_snapshot":true,"references_resolved":false,"formal_links_present":false},"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1710.10277","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.ao-ph","submitted_at":"2017-10-27T18:03:08Z","cross_cats_sorted":["physics.data-an"],"title_canon_sha256":"fc32d2e386c96643d50831c3c71d9f47f3d4663d9056e067c5f66f8f0788a476","abstract_canon_sha256":"cdb4da82e5ca668b56a4cff6566719002ba257c75d29c93a7b1c9dc413bd69ab"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T00:31:50.033970Z","signature_b64":"renGATvMo1v8ONn4UPtFbrJRszzV+qq99CnETtzLAB1fZI8in9G15+hXnm0rLn6T2qEFWfce2kkWYhd1Yiz2BA==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"34089178e7e14b8f31f2c339215ea820ed5bcebdb5a04a75fcd0bb47d2601b9d","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T00:31:50.033271Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T00:31:50.033271Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"When tails wag the decision: The role of distributional tails on climate impacts on decision-relevant time-scales","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["physics.data-an"],"primary_cat":"physics.ao-ph","authors_text":"Gregory G. Garner, Klaus Keller","submitted_at":"2017-10-27T18:03:08Z","abstract_excerpt":"Assessing and managing risks in a changing climate requires projections that account for decision-relevant uncertainties. These deep uncertainties are often approximated by ensembles of Earth-system model runs that sample only a subset of the known uncertainties. Here we demonstrate and quantify how this approach can cut off the tails of the distributions of projected climate variables such as sea-level rise. As a result, low-probability high-impact events that may drive risks can be under-represented. Neglecting the tails of this deep uncertainty may lead to overconfident projections and poor"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1710.10277","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1710.10277","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:31:50.033374+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1710.10277v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:31:50.033374+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1710.10277","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:31:50.033374+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"GQEJC6HH4FFY","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:18.294218+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"GQEJC6HH4FFY6MPS","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:18.294218+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"GQEJC6HH","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:18.294218+00:00"}],"events":[],"event_summary":{},"paper_claims":[],"inbound_citations":{"count":0,"internal_anchor_count":0,"sample":[]},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"sample":[],"anchors":[]},"links":{"html":"https://pith.science/pith/GQEJC6HH4FFY6MPSYM4SCXVIED","json":"https://pith.science/pith/GQEJC6HH4FFY6MPSYM4SCXVIED.json","graph_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/GQEJC6HH4FFY6MPSYM4SCXVIED/graph.json","events_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/GQEJC6HH4FFY6MPSYM4SCXVIED/events.json","paper":"https://pith.science/paper/GQEJC6HH"},"agent_actions":{"view_html":"https://pith.science/pith/GQEJC6HH4FFY6MPSYM4SCXVIED","download_json":"https://pith.science/pith/GQEJC6HH4FFY6MPSYM4SCXVIED.json","view_paper":"https://pith.science/paper/GQEJC6HH","resolve_alias":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/resolve?arxiv=1710.10277&json=true","fetch_graph":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/GQEJC6HH4FFY6MPSYM4SCXVIED/graph.json","fetch_events":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/GQEJC6HH4FFY6MPSYM4SCXVIED/events.json","actions":{"anchor_timestamp":"https://pith.science/pith/GQEJC6HH4FFY6MPSYM4SCXVIED/action/timestamp_anchor","attest_storage":"https://pith.science/pith/GQEJC6HH4FFY6MPSYM4SCXVIED/action/storage_attestation","attest_author":"https://pith.science/pith/GQEJC6HH4FFY6MPSYM4SCXVIED/action/author_attestation","sign_citation":"https://pith.science/pith/GQEJC6HH4FFY6MPSYM4SCXVIED/action/citation_signature","submit_replication":"https://pith.science/pith/GQEJC6HH4FFY6MPSYM4SCXVIED/action/replication_record"}},"created_at":"2026-05-18T00:31:50.033374+00:00","updated_at":"2026-05-18T00:31:50.033374+00:00"}