{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2025:HDARFBXA7LX7Y2GUY3752VTTAD","short_pith_number":"pith:HDARFBXA","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2508.03474","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"cs.CR","submitted_at":"2025-08-05T14:06:50Z","cross_cats_sorted":["q-fin.TR"],"title_canon_sha256":"4b7216e5d0d8cf6eaf509eaeba13e36e898950bde34d5da9a9e853095154f9c7","abstract_canon_sha256":"7a7ea952b9e44aef9f40c999830951c9165ba683d486a56788c7745ef96762cc"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"38c11286e0faeffc68d4c6ffdd567300c0bd59e5e2d217a8806933ae4a34a26e","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"2508.03474","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2508.03474","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:48:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2508.03474v1","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:48:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2508.03474","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:48:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"HDARFBXA7LX7","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:48:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"HDARFBXA7LX7Y2GU","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:48:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"HDARFBXA","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:48:56Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2025:HDARFBXA7LX7Y2GUY3752VTTAD","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2508.03474","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"cs.CR","submitted_at":"2025-08-05T14:06:50Z","cross_cats_sorted":["q-fin.TR"],"title_canon_sha256":"4b7216e5d0d8cf6eaf509eaeba13e36e898950bde34d5da9a9e853095154f9c7","abstract_canon_sha256":"7a7ea952b9e44aef9f40c999830951c9165ba683d486a56788c7745ef96762cc"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"38c11286e0faeffc68d4c6ffdd567300c0bd59e5e2d217a8806933ae4a34a26e","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-07-05T11:48:56.982364Z","signature_b64":"s6vUuETwVTpZDItEKg9Ux1GJia31F19Bm77uO3WnUN2Ied8cYpFDe+J/1SbTbbdrO6few3WCY6jIZ7DH4cgVAw==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"38c11286e0faeffc68d4c6ffdd567300c0bd59e5e2d217a8806933ae4a34a26e","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T11:48:56.981949Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T11:48:56.981949Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"2508.03474","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-05T11:48:56Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"fmz3b/pPMRXaluvSAdXMCrZVmLnSPTt9kx3aFEpupv9FXGUmrTiZBmL/kljGuNLE7tmQkDsJuDdHjGMuVoHcBA==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-07T09:25:56.196850Z"},"content_sha256":"9b7792c866a0336090602e9d21ec2583b052dc577f0c829e53347c5d34e494f4","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:9b7792c866a0336090602e9d21ec2583b052dc577f0c829e53347c5d34e494f4"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2025:HDARFBXA7LX7Y2GUY3752VTTAD","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["q-fin.TR"],"primary_cat":"cs.CR","authors_text":"Guillermo Suarez-Tangil, Lucianna Kiffer, Oriol Saguillo, Vahid Ghafouri","submitted_at":"2025-08-05T14:06:50Z","abstract_excerpt":"Polymarket is a prediction market platform where users can speculate on future events by trading shares tied to specific outcomes, known as conditions. Each market is associated with a set of one or more such conditions. To ensure proper market resolution, the condition set must be exhaustive -- collectively accounting for all possible outcomes -- and mutually exclusive -- only one condition may resolve as true. Thus, the collective prices of all related outcomes should be \\$1, representing a combined probability of 1 of any outcome. Despite this design, Polymarket exhibits cases where depende"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2508.03474","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2508.03474/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-05T11:48:56Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"RHl7G7HoywPX9nzQRZlQyKq+dOqdf4LQL6v7HV8ZbsQoR9Ng5+TNLbfZdEuHS0Qld0bu/m9ThU9XxNNfcJEvDA==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-07T09:25:56.197276Z"},"content_sha256":"7dbf8b94a42f0e1bab17993a23931e445f718d353f9ef8dadcca488f59497874","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:7dbf8b94a42f0e1bab17993a23931e445f718d353f9ef8dadcca488f59497874"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/HDARFBXA7LX7Y2GUY3752VTTAD/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/HDARFBXA7LX7Y2GUY3752VTTAD/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/HDARFBXA7LX7Y2GUY3752VTTAD/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-08-07T09:25:56Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/HDARFBXA7LX7Y2GUY3752VTTAD","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/HDARFBXA7LX7Y2GUY3752VTTAD/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/HDARFBXA7LX7Y2GUY3752VTTAD/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/HDARFBXA7LX7Y2GUY3752VTTAD/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2025:HDARFBXA7LX7Y2GUY3752VTTAD","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"7a7ea952b9e44aef9f40c999830951c9165ba683d486a56788c7745ef96762cc","cross_cats_sorted":["q-fin.TR"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"cs.CR","submitted_at":"2025-08-05T14:06:50Z","title_canon_sha256":"4b7216e5d0d8cf6eaf509eaeba13e36e898950bde34d5da9a9e853095154f9c7"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2508.03474","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2508.03474","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:48:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2508.03474v1","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:48:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2508.03474","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:48:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"HDARFBXA7LX7","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:48:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"HDARFBXA7LX7Y2GU","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:48:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"HDARFBXA","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:48:56Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:7dbf8b94a42f0e1bab17993a23931e445f718d353f9ef8dadcca488f59497874","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:48:56Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2508.03474/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Polymarket is a prediction market platform where users can speculate on future events by trading shares tied to specific outcomes, known as conditions. Each market is associated with a set of one or more such conditions. To ensure proper market resolution, the condition set must be exhaustive -- collectively accounting for all possible outcomes -- and mutually exclusive -- only one condition may resolve as true. Thus, the collective prices of all related outcomes should be \\$1, representing a combined probability of 1 of any outcome. Despite this design, Polymarket exhibits cases where depende","authors_text":"Guillermo Suarez-Tangil, Lucianna Kiffer, Oriol Saguillo, Vahid Ghafouri","cross_cats":["q-fin.TR"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"cs.CR","submitted_at":"2025-08-05T14:06:50Z","title":"Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2508.03474","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:9b7792c866a0336090602e9d21ec2583b052dc577f0c829e53347c5d34e494f4","target":"record","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:48:56Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"7a7ea952b9e44aef9f40c999830951c9165ba683d486a56788c7745ef96762cc","cross_cats_sorted":["q-fin.TR"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"cs.CR","submitted_at":"2025-08-05T14:06:50Z","title_canon_sha256":"4b7216e5d0d8cf6eaf509eaeba13e36e898950bde34d5da9a9e853095154f9c7"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2508.03474","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"38c11286e0faeffc68d4c6ffdd567300c0bd59e5e2d217a8806933ae4a34a26e","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"38c11286e0faeffc68d4c6ffdd567300c0bd59e5e2d217a8806933ae4a34a26e","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T11:48:56.981949Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T11:48:56.981949Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"s6vUuETwVTpZDItEKg9Ux1GJia31F19Bm77uO3WnUN2Ied8cYpFDe+J/1SbTbbdrO6few3WCY6jIZ7DH4cgVAw==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-07-05T11:48:56.982364Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2508.03474","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:9b7792c866a0336090602e9d21ec2583b052dc577f0c829e53347c5d34e494f4","sha256:7dbf8b94a42f0e1bab17993a23931e445f718d353f9ef8dadcca488f59497874"],"state_sha256":"51fd927b2c5265ae1be8d94283d48f5b8d95278c430ced95e8465904bdb33c22"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"Zcu9fis3lAnMHj9tIFC4+d/RIuXzNVJFUNdKGf2gxvWZD1u7yZNiiSgom4rBjnxqySqYGB7/3dzFQmjRd1GICg==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-07T09:25:56.199958Z","bundle_sha256":"0a46197a0834bdf38a651073e45c8ed53beca52bfad5412e2e32d08805040f00"}}