{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2023:I5WBRBW4X6FMPFV6A5SHBTT3GL","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"0cfbf8854d602059882a0e4aae70bd03d87a5928f15eccc4a4dbf81bdce30da9","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.ME"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2023-11-14T20:42:52Z","title_canon_sha256":"877ec2f76f000fc90e7fd791910cfb22dc4133906b78636e905e223f70428ed5"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2311.08527","kind":"arxiv","version":3}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2311.08527","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:27:23Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2311.08527v3","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:27:23Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2311.08527","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:27:23Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"I5WBRBW4X6FM","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:27:23Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"I5WBRBW4X6FMPFV6","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:27:23Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"I5WBRBW4","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:27:23Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:6f39b09fc9c0a5b85acfdb7b357bc930a681e5527188391c5c79ccb6a5351499","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:27:23Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2311.08527/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"We study inference on the long-term causal effect of a continual exposure to a novel intervention, which we term a long-term treatment, based on an experiment involving only short-term observations. Key examples include the long-term health effects of regularly-taken medicine or of environmental hazards and the long-term effects on users of changes to an online platform. This stands in contrast to short-term treatments or \"shocks,\" whose long-term effect can reasonably be mediated by short-term observations, enabling the use of surrogate methods. Long-term treatments by definition have direct ","authors_text":"Allen Tran, Aur\\'elien Bibaut, Nathan Kallus","cross_cats":["stat.ME"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2023-11-14T20:42:52Z","title":"Inferring the Long-Term Causal Effects of Long-Term Treatments from Short-Term Experiments"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2311.08527","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:f83f5d44d94e9be6364bf51e3958b17c1359e84e103b694efb2b74bdff61acf3","target":"record","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:27:23Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"0cfbf8854d602059882a0e4aae70bd03d87a5928f15eccc4a4dbf81bdce30da9","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.ME"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2023-11-14T20:42:52Z","title_canon_sha256":"877ec2f76f000fc90e7fd791910cfb22dc4133906b78636e905e223f70428ed5"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2311.08527","kind":"arxiv","version":3}},"canonical_sha256":"476c1886dcbf8ac796be076470ce7b32d25ed4d4729b039ec0b67922cee95f6e","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"476c1886dcbf8ac796be076470ce7b32d25ed4d4729b039ec0b67922cee95f6e","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T08:27:23.553656Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T08:27:23.553656Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"22ewQGd64UAN2xOPUprAdEy+HjK85hZYYJQ68qin3J1mt0xjh/X7dhNuUvhKljVkhshSOTlKP++/iNhshArTBQ==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-07-05T08:27:23.554047Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2311.08527","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":3}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:f83f5d44d94e9be6364bf51e3958b17c1359e84e103b694efb2b74bdff61acf3","sha256:6f39b09fc9c0a5b85acfdb7b357bc930a681e5527188391c5c79ccb6a5351499"],"state_sha256":"6e3211da14e0f7ef58c22c26e94b8f6c327966c601241539e6e47b97bd9eca00"}